HIGH TENSIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: A NEW WAR FRONT?

What follows is my English translation of an article by Enrico Vigna published on ComeDonChisciotte.org [all emphasis original]:

Due to the latest political and military moves considered hostile and provocative by Pyongyang, the situation on the Korean peninsula is in real danger of exploding, with the DPRK leadership accusing the US of trying to wipe out the People's Republic by force of arms.

The latest provocation to escalate the situation was the announcement of the birth of a so-called US-South Korean “cyber alliance”, with exercises taking place from 15 to 26 January.

This coalition, declared for the first time under the pretext of “strengthening the system of cyber cooperation”, would actually be aimed at familiarising itself with cyber warfare. According to Pyongyang, this is yet another piece in an extension of the acts of war provocation by Washington and its subordinate forces in Seoul and elsewhere, which have intensified military manoeuvres, publicly propagating in the media a supposed 'end of the regime' in the DPRK.

In January, the US and its subordinates staged a series of joint military exercises involving the DPRK in the air, land, and sea on and around the Korean peninsula, mobilising even types of strategic nuclear assets in less than a month.

On 4 January, the US and South Korea staged the first joint combat exercise in Phochon in Kyonggi province, publicising the alliance's “enhanced operational capability”. Then there was a joint naval exercise with Japan's and Seoul's warships, dubbed “self-defense”, lasting three days from 15 January, announcing “strengthened capability to meet North Korea's nuclear and missile threats”. Also involved in the exercise were the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and the cruiser Aegis Princeton. [South Korea, US conduct week-long firing drills near North Korea border | Reuters]

On 18 January, a joint air exercise took place in the sky over the East Sea of Korea under the denomination “reinforced defence and reactive forces”. Two B-1B strategic nuclear bombers of the US Air Force and F-15 fighter planes of the Japanese Air Force's “Self-Defence Forces” were involved in the action.

Parallel to this, several reconnaissance missions with espionage activities were carried out against the DPRK.

On 22 January, a US Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft carried out a provocative intelligence flight in the skies over the East and West Seas of Korea, brazenly for several hours, to which were added reconnaissance and espionage flights by Seoul's E-737 AWACS. As mentioned ironically by Pyongyang “When a crow flies, its tail follows it”.

In this situation, the DPRK government, faced with arrogant provocations with unjustified “nuclear” exercises that have been in place since the beginning of the year, believes that the country must be absolutely prepared for a war and has harshly warned the US: “...in the event of an invasion by its subordinates in Seoul, they will find a reaction with overwhelming force. We have demonstrated on several occasions that our cutting-edge military hardware is not for ‘demonstration’ and regularised our Korean-style nuclear doctrine on the use of nuclear forces long ago... Once again we warn the US and its puppets that if war breaks out, they will become the targets of our ruthless retribution...”

In his 15 January speech to the Supreme People's Assembly, DPRK President Kim Jong Un addressed these issues and reiterated Pyongyang's firm and unequivocal position, even going so far as to put on the table the cancellation of the entire process of the peaceful reunification of Korea in relations with the Republic of Korea (South Korea), which would mean in effect nullifying the agreements and resolutions made in the “North-South Joint Communiqué” of 4 June 1972 [here], the "Inter-Korean Basic Agreement" [actually called “Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North Korea”] of 13 December 1991, the "North-South Joint Declaration" of 15 June 2000 [here], and the "Joint Declaration" of 4 October 2007 [here]. This means the abandonment of the principles of inter-Korean policy defined and followed from 1972 to the present.

The question now will be whether these statements are merely a tactical manoeuvre rather than a new strategic direction, but the statements by the DPRK “supreme leader” nevertheless deserve close scrutiny in terms of their scope.

In his address to the 10th session of the Supreme People's Assembly [SPA] on 15 January, South Korea is mentioned ten times. He first refers to the legal framework, according to which it is now the SPA that has been challenging the principles of inter-Korean relations for “almost 80 years”: “...Today, the Supreme People's Assembly has once again legalised our Republic's policy towards the South, ending almost 80 years of the history of inter-Korean relations and the recognition of the two states that both exist on the Korean Peninsula...North-South relations have been completely frozen and transformed into relations between two mutually hostile states and between two belligerent states, and no longer into consanguineous or homogeneous relations. This is the current state of North-South relations, caused by the atrocious and self-destructive confrontation manoeuvres of the Republic of Korea, a group of prominent foreign stooges, who have given the whole world their true image of the Korean peninsula: a South Korea subservient to foreign interests...”.

In his speech, Kim Jong Un reiterated that the “Northern Limit Line”, the de facto maritime border between the two Korean states, is no longer recognised by the DPRK, which thus intends to defend its entire territory, which, for some foreign observers, hints at new North-South clashes in this area: “...Since the southern border of our country has been clearly demarcated, the illegal ‘northern boundary line’ and any other borders can no longer be tolerated, and if the Republic of Korea violates even 0.001 mm of our territory, our air and our waters, this will be considered a provocation of war.... For now, we must take strict and progressive measures to completely block all North-South communication channels along the border, including physically and completely cutting the railway lines on our side, which were a symbol of the North-South relationship. Exchange and cooperation on an irreversible level...”.

In this situation, as a demonstration of strength and resolve, a test of a new strategic weapon was conducted on 28 January to prove the DPRK's naval strength. This was the test launch of the “Pulhwasal-3-31” strategic cruise missile launched from a newly developed submarine. The cruise missiles flew in the sky over the East Sea for 7.421 seconds and 7.445 seconds before hitting the island's target. The test fire had no impact on the security of the neighbouring country. This outlines the planning of a strategic force aimed at expanding and strengthening the operational scope of Pyongyang's nuclear deterrence in a diversified manner, increasing the nuclear weaponry of its navy and reaffirming national maritime sovereignty. The programme to build a nuclear-powered submarine and other new types of warships was also announced in detail.

Sources: KCNA - Naenara - VoK - Cilreco

Edited by Enrico Vigna, CPR Corea – Torino & Iniziativa Mondo Multipolare/CIVG