Imminent USraeli attack against Iran?
Plus news and updates from Lebanon, Israel and Yemen
Imminent USraeli attack against Iran?
It looks like USrael is finalizing its preparations to launch an imminent attack against Iran, at least based on the latest developments.
Last Thursday 22nd January 2025, US President Donald J. Trump stated that…
We have a big flotilla going in that direction, and we’ll see what happens. We have a big force going toward Iran. I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely.
We have an armada. We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use it. We’ll see.
…as quoted by SouthFront.press, which also reported on the possible deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, previously in the South China Sea, to the Middle East. Its strike group includes “the CVW-9 Carrier Air Wing, which consists of eight squadrons flying F-35C Lightning II, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, CMV-22B Ospreys and MH-60R/S Sea Hawks”.
Several guided-missile destroyers were also reported to be arriving in the Middle East, while 3 Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers and perhaps a nuclear attack submarine are already in the region.
Recent satellite images from China’s MizarVision also showed the deployment of 17 F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets of the US Air Force (USAF) 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, as confirmed also by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) in this tweet without mentioning the deployment destination. Regarding the choice of Jordan as as main base in a possible attack against Iran, I strongly recommend that you read this Al Mayadeen article, which also presents OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) not covered here and envisages how the USraeli aggression could develop and how Iran may respond.
Flight trackers also revealed flights of C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft to the region, suggesting the possible deployment of large military equipment, such as MIM-104 Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to enhance missile defense in Israel and US bases in the Middle East, but also a NATO E-3A Sentry (AWACS1), callsign NATO008, transiting the central Mediterranean, routing east toward the Eastern Med / Levant corridor, and multiple USAF KC-135 Stratotankers lifting from Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) and operating over the Gulf.
Similarly, the British Royal Air Force (RAF) deployed a squadron of Typhoon fighter jets, capable of attacking targets deep inside Iran with Storm Shadow land-attack cruise missiles, to the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest CENTCOM facility in the Middle East, as announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey yesterday, Friday 23rd January 2026 (source: SouthFront.press):
Qatar and the UK are close partners with historic defence ties going back decades. This partnership bolsters the national security of both our nations and supports stability in the Gulf region.
Today’s deployment builds on those shared aims as Typhoon jets from our joint squadron deploy to support its defence.
Coming alongside our announcement of half a billion pounds investment to upgrade our Typhoons, this deployment is further demonstration of the crucial role of these jets in reinforcing global security.
It is also worth reporting that yesterday several major international airlines (KLM, Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines, United Airlines and Air Canda) announced the suspension or cancellation of flights to several countries in West Asia (Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates), as reported by Al Mayadeen, which also mentioned “a US Navy Boeing P‑8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft […] conducting surveillance operations off the coast of Iran over the Gulf, indicating a heightened Western military presence and monitoring in the area”.
Moreover, earlier today (Saturday 24th January 2026) US CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper arrived in Israel for a brief visit, including scheduled meetings with top Israeli security officials, as reported by Al Mayadeen and Israeli Army Radio, which cited a US military source. It is very likely that Adm. Brad Cooper is there to coordinate the attack on Iran.
Within this context, last Thursday, Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, was quoted by Al Masirah as saying (all emphasis mine):
Any type of attack on the territory, security, and interests of the Iranian nation will immediately and as a first step, turn all US interests, bases, and centers of influence into legitimate, definitive, and accessible targets for the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
[Iran’s response] will be much faster, more precise, and more devastating than the US and the Zionist regime could even imagine.
Today, the US President's baseless threats and statements have not only faced widespread condemnation in the Islamic world, but have also faced serious protest and criticism within the United States and even in its Congress; a reality that clearly indicates the increasing isolation and decline of America's hostile, adventurous, and failed policies.
[Iran] will never yield or submit to such nonsense, and will continue its path of progress and advancement with dignity and strength.
Similarly, yesterday a senior Iranian official warned that…
This time, we take any attack - limited, unlimited, surgical, kinetic, whatever they call it - as an all-out war against us, and we will respond in the hardest way possible.
…as quoted by Al Mayadeen. The unnamed senior official was echoed by Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Division, who stated (source: Al Masirah):
Trump talks a lot, but he should be certain that he will receive his answer in the field.
The IRGC Aerospace Division is currently at the pinnacle of its readiness.
…adding that “the production of aerospace hardware across various sectors had significantly increased since the 12-day war” in June 2025.
Today IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, speaking at the National Congress of the 12,000 Western units in the northwestern city of Urmia, issued a new warning, as reported by Al Masirah:
Just as in the 12-day war and the recent sedition, all enemy schemes to defeat Islamic Iran failed, we are ready to deliver a regret-inducing response to any reckless action by the sworn enemies of the Iranian nation.
…while Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik said (source: Al Masirah):
The quantitative and qualitative capacities of Iran's missile power have increased compared to the imposed 12-day war, and the country's missile defense capability has been strengthened and become more effective thanks to the experiences gained in the war.
On the other hand, last Thursday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the Iranian people with the following reassuring message (source: Al Masirah):
What we all went through in recent weeks was a hard and difficult test that left deep pain behind.
These bitter events were, more than anything else, painful and unacceptable for me as President and your elected representative.
The same evil hands that, in the 12-day war, shed the blood of more than a thousand women, men, youths, children, scientists and commanders of this land, today emerged from another sleeve.
And, by inciting a number of mercenaries, they turned protest — which is the natural right of a dynamic and vibrant society — into an unholy rage, in whose fire hundreds of mosques, schools, public places and national assets were reduced to ashes.
The martyrdom of nearly 2,500 innocent people and security personnel over a few days of unrest and insecurity was a poisonous event and an extremely difficult experience which our beloved Iran, like other great experiences, has passed through.
The American-Zionist conspiracy of Dey 14042 was the cowardly revenge of the enemies of the Iranian nation for their defeat in the 12-day war.
Protest is the natural right of citizens, and the government considers itself obligated to hear the voice of the people.
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s performance at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, where he said:
So much was said about protests in Iran, but they were drowned in blood.
The world did not help the Iranian people enough; it stood aside. By the time politicians began forming positions, the Ayatollah had already killed thousands. What will Iran become after this bloodshed? If the regime survives, it sends a clear signal to every bully: kill enough people, and you stay in power.
…yesterday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blasted him with the following tweet (see also Al Maydeen):
Well said, Araghchi, well said!
Meanwhile, Iran is still cracking down on rioters and foreign actors. Earlier today Iranian intelligence authorities dismantled an organized arms smuggling network in the southern province of Khuzestan, seizing 11,600 rounds of ammunition (9,100 Kalashnikov bullets and 2,500 handgun rounds), confiscating 2 vehicles carrying illicit shipments and arresting 4 key operatives, as per Al Mayadeen, which also reported the execution of two ISIS operatives accused of carrying out a terrorist attack against a bus carrying pilgrims on the Tehran–Ilam route in 2023.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) also uncovered evidence of an “enemy command room” involving 10 foreign intelligence services, established soon after the 12-day war. According to an IRGC statement cited by Al Mayadeen, documents and information retrieved from the command room showed that the operation focused on 3 main axes: domestic unrest, militant group mobilization, and external military pressure, all designed to push Iran toward instability.
Finally, tonight Al Masirah reported on the arrest of 148 riot ringleaders by Iranian security forces in the western province of Hamedan.
News and updates from Lebanon
Moving to Lebanon, last Thursday the Hezbollah-affiliated Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc political wing in the Parliament warned that US threats to Iran risk igniting the whole region, as reported by Al Masirah, which quoted the following statement:
American aggression against nations and people in our region has reached a level of arrogance, threatening the life of the supreme religious leader of millions of Muslims, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.
This threatens to ignite the entire region, adding to threats against the Iranian people, who have stood firm against American and Zionist attempts to undermine their security and stability.
The only option for the Lebanese is to preserve their strength, primarily the unity of the army, people, and resistance, and to unite against surrounding dangers.
Earlier today, during a visit of several towns in southern Lebanon damaged by recent Israeli aggression, Sheikh Ali al-Khatib, Deputy Head of Lebanon’s Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, stated (source: Al Mayadeen):
We call on the State we aspire to, just as the people of the South do, to be fully present in southern Lebanon, to genuinely embrace the region under State protection.
The occupation has demolished houses, but it will not shatter the determination of the people of southern Lebanon, who will remain on their land, preserve it, and defend it.
We look forward to serious positions from our Arab brothers, from whom we have never been separated, and we call on them to stand with our people in southern Lebanon.
…while Hezbollah issued the following message to the wounded mujaheddin (from this post on RNN Mirror Telegram channel - italics original):
“Those who have believed, emigrated, and strived in the cause of Allah with their wealth and their lives are greater in rank in the sight of Allah. It is they who will triumph” (At-Tawbah 20)
To the wounded among the mujahideen—men and women—the sons and daughters of our noble nation: men, women, youth, and children: Your blood is a radiance of life, the pain of your wounds is a cry of truth, and your patience is the ink of hope and dignity.
You took the path of Allah for the sake of the homeland and the liberation of the land and the people. You proved worthy of a dignified life in the face of the ruins of humiliation and worldly greed, remaining a testament of pride for generations and all free people. You follow the example of Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas and the wounds of our Guardian, Imam Khamenei.
The wounded are an inexhaustible spring of life, the hope of a promising future of victory, and the embodiment of human dignity. Allah Almighty said: “Do not falter in pursuit of the enemy—if you are suffering, they too are suffering. But you can hope to receive from Allah what they can never hope for” (An-Nisa 104). Commander of the Faithful Ali said: “Hold fast to the ground and be patient in the face of affliction”.
We are facing a major confrontation led by the American tyrant with a gasping Western mobilization and savage “Zionist” criminality. You, along with the mujahideen and our people, have stood with legendary steadfastness.
The resistance fighters stopped 75,000 soldiers of the “Israel” enemy on the outskirts of pure South Lebanon, and our people returned to the land the moment the ceasefire began to protect it with their bodies, faith, and steadfastness.
Your resistance in the Battle of the Mighty Ones, and what preceded and followed it, disrupted the expansion of land usurpation and hindered the American “New Middle East”. With this resistance, the land will remain for its people, and the homeland will remain for its children; no matter the pressures and sacrifices, equations change with steadfastness. Falsehood may have its turn, but “We alternate these days [of victory and defeat] among people” (Al-Imran 140).
You recover from your wounds because you are people of faith and truth. As long as we follow the path of Karbala, Al-Hussain and the line of Hezbollah, we are always victorious. As the Master of Martyrs of the Ummah, Sayyed Hassan [Nasrallah], said: “When we win, we win, and when we are martyred, we win.”
In our case, some are martyred and thus win by passing the torch of dignity to their brothers and families; some are wounded and win on the road to recovery and remaining in the field; and some continue on the covenant to achieve the decisive victory. Allah Almighty said: “And it was an obligation upon Us to give victory to the believers” (Ar-Rum 47).
Greetings to the wounded, you who have raised our heads high, especially the pager wounded. A salute to their brothers and families who supported them, and to those who treated, supported, and extended a helping hand to them.
The greatest greetings to our Guardian, Imam Khamenei, the leader of this divine path toward achieving its goals.
Other news and updates from the Middle East
Moving briefly to Israel, its Former Minister of Military Affairs Avigdor Lieberman admitted that, during the 12-day war, Iran inflicted heavy losses to his country, as reported by Al Masirah, which quoted him as saying (all emphasis added):
We have the best air force in the world, but, at the same time, we saw the real power of Iranian ballistic missiles: Emad-1, Shahab-3, Khorramshahr and others.
Obviously, the Iranians struck strategic targets of Israel. I don't want to go into details; it's impossible to explain more now.
The Iranians managed to destroy the laboratory and all the accumulated research – all the data and results of our work over several decades.
The Iranians hit strategic targets, and we are not ready for defense now.
Yesterday, I read in the newspapers that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the attack on Iran, because we are not ready in the field of defense.
Moving briefly to Yemen, the UAE (United Arab Emirates) has allegedly started withdrawing from the densely populated island of Socotra; however, according to analysts and media reports, it is not a withdrawal, but a strategic repositioning to the nearby island of Abd al-Kuri, the second-largest island in the Socotra archipelago, home to only a few hundred residents, but with immense strategic value, as it sits astride international shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and near the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This relocation would allow the UAE to move sensitive military and security activities away from the public eye to an isolated island, where the UAE plans to construct an airstrip and logistical infrastructure, as reported by Al Masirah, which quoted an analyst familiar with the region as saying:
The construction of an airstrip on an isolated island devoid of the most basic development components unveils dangerous military and security dimensions. It confirms an intent to transform the island into an advanced pivot point serving external agendas wholly at odds with Yemeni sovereignty.
I will conclude this article with the following caricatures by Kamal Sharaf from Saba:
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Airborne Warning and Control System
Month in the Persian calendar corresponding to the month from 21st December 2025 to 19th January 2026 - vercalendario.info
Even if the number of the fleet seems large, it is just an homeopathic amount of what will be needed to invade Iran. As Iran is having sufficient air defense, relatively slow helicopters will not reach Tehran to make a stunt like in Venezuela. The same goes for dropping bombs from airplanes.
What is left is sending rockets from ships, submarines and planes. Air defense will shoot some down, some will reach thier target. But this will cause Iran to start drones and rockets to Israel, US bases and US ships. If the reported numbers and capbilities are correct, this will be a devastating blow for the USA and Israel.
If the Pentagon know this, they will strongly advise against any attack. Possibly the secret services will deliver wrong intelligence. The congress surely is wrong informed, they belive in the "unsinkable aircraft carrier America". They are eager for war.
Concerning Trump. The rule of thumb for him is: If he threatens, he will chicken out. If he negotiates, the US or its proxies will attack. Possibly he has to play the strongman because of the stark warnings of the Iran officials. But Trump fears long wars. He likes Blitzkrieg actions and fireworks.
His audience is dumb enough to intermix his strong words with his tricky actions and still belive in his projected strenght. After all the Donald J. Trump Show with daily new episodes beats easily any netflix series.
I hope Iran destroys them all.