Iran beats the drums of war
...while the military and political situation in Israel gets worse every day!
Following the election of Sheikh Naim Qassem as new Secretary-General of Hezbollah three days ago, yesterday (31st October 2024) Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, Commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), sent him a letter of congratulations, stating (emphasis mine):
You are a seasoned and honorable fighter, widely respected among the noble fighters in the resistance.
The Quds Force in the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps will remain alongside Hezbollah until the malignant Zionist tree is uprooted and Palestine, along with holy al-Quds, is liberated.
I pray to Almighty God that this enlightened and Jihadi path of the martyrs will continue under your leadership with greater strength and resolve
…as reported by Al Mayadeen. Clearly Iran does not want to sit idle and leave its ally in Lebanon alone in its battle against Little Satan (a.k.a. Israel). The rhetoric used by Iranian officials within the last day or so has become quite bellicose, thus signalling that they are not afraid of confronting neither Little Satan nor Great Satan (a.k.a. the Outlaw US Empire), should the situation escalate. They must have understood that they have nothing to worry about, following the failed Israeli response last weekend to the Iranian missile barrage against Israel on 1st October 2024 (“Operation True Promise 2”, which was a response to the killing of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, in Beirut ~1 month ago and of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political leader, in Tehran ~3 months ago).
In fact, as reported in another Al Mayadeen article, on the same day (meaning yesterday, 31st October 2024) Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, Deputy Commander of the IRGC, confirmed that the Iranian response to any Israeli aggression was “inevitable”, stating the following (emphasis mine):
For over 40 years we have never left any attack unanswered.
We can target everything the Zionists possess in a single operation.
Israel believed it had eradicated Hezbollah with the martyrdom of the Ummah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and other resistance leaders, [but] Hezbollah is now stronger than before.
Additionally, again on the same day, Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the IRGC, released the following statement addressed to the Israelis, as reported by Al Mayadeen in a third article (emphasis mine):
You have once again proven that you do not understand the Iranian people, and your calculations are completely wrong.
You rely on a few missiles and fighter jets, yet they will not prevent your downfall.
You will inevitably fall.
…threatening Little Satan with a response that “will surpass all expectations”.
Al Mayadeen also quoted Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, head of the Office of the Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, as saying that Little Satan “will receive a severe Iranian response to its recent aggression that will cause it to regret it” and that “the performance of Iranian air defenses in countering the Israeli aggression ‘was effective’, explaining that they prevented Israeli warplanes from breaching the country's airspace”.
Speaking of air defences, yesterday Al Mayadeen reported that, during the 2nd Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, had announced that an “updated partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, emphasizing defense cooperation, is expected to be signed soon”. Lavrov was quoted as saying:
A major factor in strengthening Russian-Iranian relations will be the treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran that is being prepared for signing soon.
…and that the agreement…
will confirm the parties' desire for closer cooperation in the field of defense and interaction in the interests of peace and security at the regional and global level.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had already revealed plans for the imminent signing of the treaty with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the BRICS summit in Kazan on 23rd October 2024.
It looks like Russia and Iran have finally decided that it is time to put an end to the hegemony of the Outlaw US Empire!
Meanwhile, the military and political situation in Israel gets worse and worse.
In fact, Al Mayadeen today reports that the casualty losses inflicted by Hezbollah to the Israeli enemy (both officers and soldiers) in the fights along the border amount to almost 1,000. More precisely: 95 deaths and 900 injured. Hezbollah has also confirmed the destruction of the following enemy military hardware:
42 Merkava main battle tanks,
4 armored D9 bulldozers,
2 Humvees,
1 armoured vehicle,
1 Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC),
3 Hermes 450 drones
2 Hermes 900 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).
Not bad, if you consider that this tally, released yesterday, does not include “Israeli losses incurred in long-range and indirect attacks that targeted bases, military sites, settlements, and occupied cities”, which are more difficult to assess, of course.
For additional details, please refer to the article in the link above.
As if that was not enough, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has also to deal with investigations into suspected leaks of classified intelligence. Investigations which have led to the arrest of some of his aides, as reported in this Al Mayadeen article, which quotes opposition leader Yair Lapid as saying:
Netanyahu is already trying, as usual, to distance himself from the affair and to place responsibility on others, but the facts show the opposite: he is personally responsible for every paper, word, or piece of information that comes out of his office.
The danger from within and at the most sensitive decision-making centers shakes the foundations of the confidence of the citizens of Israel.
…as well as Benny Gantz, Chairman of the National Unity party:
Without going into the details of the case... it is important to emphasize one thing: the Prime Minister is the one responsible for what is done in his office. For better or for worse.
Of course, “Bibi” is trying to deflect the accusations, with his office responding to these with the following statements:
There were dozens of leaks published in the media about the hostage negotiations, which were harmful to the premier, and none of those were investigated.
It was not for nothing that Prime Minister Netanyahu demanded the immediate removal of the gag order over the investigation. The ongoing obfuscation is intended to tarnish his office.
Anyway, this is just one of the many scandals that Netanyahu has to deal with and that’s why he wants a forever war: to keep clinging on to power, so that he does not have to face corruption charges which have been haunting him for years!
For more information about the investigations on the leaks, I refer you to the Al Mayadeen article in the link above and to this post by Richard Silverstein on his Tikun Olam blog.
UPDATE (02/11/2024): IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency) has reported that this morning Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, also released a bellicose statement during a meeting with students, warning “enemies that they will receive a ‘jaw-breaking response’ for what they do against the Islamic Republic and the Resistance Front”, adding that “Iran will certainly do everything necessary in its preparation for confronting imperialism in terms of military, armaments, or political actions” and noting that “it is not an issue of revenge, but it is an issue of a logical move that is in accordance with religion and international law”.
"95 deaths and 900 injured" Those numbers are very interesting. I suspect they understate Israeli deaths. Historically killed to wounded are usually in a range of 1:1-1:4. In Ukraine between the well-equipped and trained and cautious Russians and the ill-equipped, untrained and reckless Ukrainians, the ratio is more like 1:6 up to 1:10. The Hezbollah-Israel ratio is 1:10, which given that there isn't a lot of heavy artillery use, and Hezbollah is not using FAB glide bombs like the Russians are using which are devastating to ground units is surprising.
The only explanation I have off the top of my head is the incompetence of the Israeli reserve forces compared with the well-organized defenses and well-trained and motivated Hezbollah forces.
In guerilla warfare the guerilla's have won 100% of the time because they are elusive and difficult to find.