Israel "Defense" Forces withdrawing from Southern Gaza?
What is happening in the Middle East?
This week started with quite an eventful Monday:
The Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus (Syria), which I covered in this post and then followed up in my last one.
The (accidental?) killing in Gaza of 7 workers of World Central Kitchen (WCK) by the Israel “Defense” Forces (IDF), which I did not cover for quite a few reasons, namely the fact that it had a huge coverage, more than the aforementioned event, and that the death of these people is apparently worthy of more attention than the death of many other aid workers (196, as of 5th April 2024, including the 7 of WCK) and of 33,175 Palestinians (as of today, 7th April 2024).
This week is finishing also with quite a few surprises:
Earlier today Larry Johnson, ex-CIA analyst, citing a Daily Mail article, reported in his latest blog post that at least 2 of the British aid workers killed in the WCK massacre were former members of the British Special Air Service (SAS). What were they really doing there? “Were they doing intel collection using their WCK job as cover?”, as Larry Johnson rightly asks.
As reported by several outlets (e.g. Al Mayadeen and The Guardian) today, just to name a couple), the IDF has withdrawn most of its troops from southern Gaza.
The last item is quite a bombshell, especially if you consider that there has been no breakthrough in the diplomatic negotiations between Hamas and Israel and that “for the first time since ground maneuvers in Gaza, all brigades (except for Nahal Brigade) have left southern Gaza this past night”, as reported by Al Mayadeen in its daily Short/Breaking News today (Sunday 7th April 2024).
Apparently, the “98th Division and its three brigades withdrew last night from Khan Younis after four months of fighting” and the Nahal Brigade is the “only one left in Gaza, as it is in charge of securing ‘Netzarim’ corridor to keep Gazans from returning to the North” (as per Al Mayadeen, citing Israeli media).
The Guardian and most likely other western mainstream media (MSM) say that “the drawdown is primarily to relieve reservists after nearly four months of intense fighting in the decimated southern city of Khan Younis, rather than any significant shift in strategy”. Also the White House says that it is a “refit”, as reported by Al Mayadeen. The Guardian cites an IDF official saying:
There’s no need for us to remain in Khan Younis. The 98th Division dismantled Hamas’s Khan Younis brigades and killed thousands of its members. We did everything we could there.
…but we all know that the only thousands of people they killed are harmless civilians, mostly women and children. The Guardian also reports that…
the timing of the announcement coincides with the beginning of a round of mediated talks in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, aimed at securing a second truce and hostage release deal, and is being received as a positive sign that the latest negotiations, after much faltering, may finally bear fruit.
Although it could be true, I personally struggle to believe it, since Israel has never shown such a benevolent approach and it actually clashes with what the IDF official said. Also, we should not forget that Benjamin Netanyahu has been announcing an attack against Rafah for a couple of months now.
So, let’s put this development in context with recent events, which I will recap as follows:
Israeli bombing of Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria) on Monday 1st April;
Israeli bombing of WCK convoy on the same day (Monday 1st April) and consequent outrage across the western world, with some governments (UK included, but not US) considering stopping arm sales to Israel;
On Wednesday 3rd April, The Daily Mail reports that 2 British WCK aid-workers killed by IDF were former SAS commandos
fearing Iranian reprisal, Israeli military halts leave for all combat units and steps up GPS jamming/spoofing all over the country on Thursday 4th April;
for the same reason stated above, Israel temporarily closes 28 embassies around the world on Friday 5th April (Al-Quds Day or Jerusalem Day).
In my humble opinion, there are a few possible explanations to the Israeli withdrawal (in no particular order):
Israel is genuinely rotating or, actually, refitting troops, since the withdrawn brigades have not been replaced (yet);
Israel is regrouping for an attack on Rafah;
Israel is afraid of Iran’s retaliation and is regrouping to defend itself;
Israel has been privately reprimanded by western countries (most likely UK) for its WCK attack, killing SAS commands operating under cover;
Israel has been warned by western intelligence about an upcoming Iranian attack and preparing its counter-attack;
Israel is preparing to launch an attack against Iran proper, in order to draw US in the Middle East crisis once and for all.
Please feel free to add yours and/or comment on my potential explanations.
P.S.: It is also worth noting that just today Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the Advisor for military affairs to the Iranian Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that the “Resistance Front [is] awaiting hard retaliation, we are waiting for the opportune moment” (source: Highlights | Al Mayadeen).
Moreover, Yemeni Armed Forces have stepped up their attacks today, targeting two Israeli ships in Indian Ocean and Arab Sea with a number of ballistic and winged missiles, two US frigates in Red Sea with a number of drones and one British ship targeted in Red Sea using a number of naval missiles (source: Highlights | Al Mayadeen).