Israel humiliated as Iran foils Israeli attacks
Little Satan did not accomplish much with its latest air strikes in Iran.
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As you can guess from the title, last night Little Satan finally launched its attack against Iran in retaliation to the Iranian response to the killing of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, in Beirut ~1 month ago and of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political leader, in Tehran ~3 months ago, but, as you can guess from the lead image, the attack did not accomplish much. Please mind the correct sequence of events, as the Western mainstream media (MSM) is framing the Israeli strikes as self-defense and retaliation to an “unprovoked” attack by Iran against Israel, as Caitlin Johnstone explained in her latest article:
But let’s get down to business and analyse what happened overnight.
At ~2:00 EEST Al Mayadeen and The Times of Israel started reporting about explosions in both Syria (see this Al Mayadeen article for more info) and Iran (read this other Al Mayadeen article for their summary). Half an hour later the Israel “Defense” Forces released the following statement on X (formerly Twitter), confirming that it was “conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran” and not on nuclear sites or oil facilities, as made clear in another statement by an unnamed Israeli official to NBC, quoted by the Times of Israel.
Initial reports on the Times of Israel mentioned “explosions near or at Imam Khomeini international airport”, but these were later proven wrong by Al Mayadeen and the Iranian semi-official Tasnim news agency.
At ~3:20 EEST an Al Mayadeen correspondent in Tehran (Iran) reported the following (all emphasis mine), suggesting that the Israeli attack was foiled successfully by Iranian air defences:
The sounds of explosions heard in Tehran were related to air defense activities.
There were Israeli attempts to target three bases in Tehran Province, but Iranian air defenses intercepted them.
The situation in the Iranian capital, Tehran, is completely stable.
Iranian air defenses successfully intercepted most of the Israeli attacks.
Iranian air defenses successfully intercepted hostile targets aimed at military bases in the southern and western parts of Tehran Province, outside the capital city itself.
At almost the same time, Sean Savett, White House National Security Council spokesperson stated that the US was not taking part (directly) in the Israeli military operation and that President Joe Biden was informed on the Israeli attack on Iran and closely monitoring the situation (see also this Al Mayadeen article). Well… they may not have been directly involved, but they are surely complicit, as we know very well that Great Satan (a.k.a. the Outlaw US Empire) is providing weapons and ammunition to Little Satan. Also, Sean Savett called the Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets “an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1”, as reported by The Times of Israel, thus dictating the editorial line to the Western MSM.
At ~4:00 EEST Al Mayadeen, quoting Tasnim, reported that “no IRGC military sites were targeted in the west or southwest of Tehran”.
Soon after, at ~4:30 EEST, a second wave of Israeli attacks in Iran started, but it was also thwarted, as confirmed by the Al Mayadeen correspondent in Tehran who at ~4:42 EEST reported the following (emphasis mine):
Iran's air defenses successfully dealt with another wave of attacks over eastern Tehran.
…with additional sources quoted later as saying that “Israeli attempts to target Iranian air defense bases in the vicinity of Tehran failed” and that “air defenses downed all Israeli drones attempting to target Iranian air defense bases in eastern Tehran”.
At ~6:00 EEST the Israeli military command announced the end of its attacks against Iran, as reported by Al Mayadeen and, in more detail, by The Times of Israel, which revealed the name of the operation, “Days of Repentance”, allegedly targeting “Iranian military sites, including air defense batteries and ballistic missile manufacturing sites”. This was followed by a statement by the IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, reported also by The Times of Israel:
I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel.
We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel. The Israel Defense Forces has fulfilled its mission.
If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation — we will be obligated to respond.
Our message is clear: All those who threaten the State of Israel and seek to drag the region into a wider escalation — will pay a heavy price. We demonstrated today that we have both the capability and the resolve to act decisively — and we are prepared — on offense and defense — to defend the State of Israel and the people of Israel.
On the other side, the Iran's Air Defense Force was quoted by Al Mayadeen as stating:
The country's air defenses successfully countered this aggression, only limited damage to some areas was recorded.
The results of the incident are currently under investigation.
We urge the public to maintain solidarity and calm.
…while the Tasnim agency was quoted as saying:
Initial assessments indicate that the Israeli aggression was weak.
Israeli attempts to target bases in Tehran, Khuzestan, Ilam failed, despite minor damage caused.
An assessment of the attack is still ongoing to study the dimensions of the Israeli aggression.
At ~8:20 EEST Al Mayadeen quoted Tasnim again as saying that Israeli “claim that it targeted 20 sites in Iran is unrealistic and comes within the framework of psychological warfare” - see also this Al Mayadeen article.
The official Iranian news agency, IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), reported about a statement from public relations office of the Iranian air defense command, confirming that “Israeli airstrikes against military centers in Tehran, the western province of Ilam, and the southwestern province of Khuzestan have been intercepted and countered successfully”.
You can clearly see from these statements that Iran is trying to downplay the Israeli attacks, whereas Israel is trying to overplay it - see also this headline from The Jerusalem Post:
Where is the truth? Let’s see…
During the night some videos and photos circulated on X, allegedly showing ground explosions, however these were proven false and outdated:
The above being only one example. There are others, such as an explosion in Beirut passed off to be in Teheran.
Instead, authentic footage, verified by Al Mayadeen, showed successful interception of Israeli missiles (more footage can be found on Iranian Press TV):
Lord Bebo even made a video comparison between the two recent attacks between Israel and Iran against each other, showing on one side (right) the Iranian missiles getting through Israeli air defences on 1st October 2024 and on the other (left) a bush on fire in Iran this morning after the “mighty” Israeli response:
Unfortunately the Western MSM did not get any video or photo showing powerful explosions or smoke billowing from the ground in Iran: just look at the photos shown in this snippet by The Guardian, whose journalists by the way took a nap before the Israeli attack, probably knowing its timing from MI6 beforehand:
…while in the previous nights they always carried on with their live coverage of the Middle East crisis until early morning.
By the way, Israeli media publicly warned about the impending attack last night: as reported by Al Mayadeen in this article, quoting Israeli Kan TV as saying that Little Satan “finalized its military preparations for a possible strike on Iran” and that the Israeli Air Force was “awaiting a green light from the Israeli leadership”. Yet, this morning Barak Ravid wrote an article on Axios with the following headline:
…most likely to justify the poor performance of the Israeli attack. What “scoop” do you have, Barak? The IDF gave a PUBLIC forewarning last night! FFS!
Anyway… maybe Little Satan really gave an early warning to Iran and launched a limited attack just to save face and “even up the score and lower tensions” or maybe Iranian air defences, probably bolstered by Russian S-400s and new radars, as speculated by Simplicius the Thinker in this tweet:
Also, this morning The Times of Israel has quoted Sky News Arabia, citing “an unnamed source as saying that Russia warned Iran ahead of the impending Israeli airstrikes this morning”.
Anyway, who is really being humiliated here is not Iran, but Little Satan, with its ridiculous Iron Dome, David Sling and Arrow air defence systems, which cannot stop Iranian attacks even with the help of Great Satan and its allies, whereas Iran has managed to stop all of Israeli retaliatory air strikes so far.
Now there is speculation about what is going to happen next. Is Iran going to respond to this aggression or not? Although reports about two Iranian soldiers killed this morning are surfacing now (see for instance these snippets by The Guardian and Tasnim), it is very unlikely that Iran will retaliate, considering that very little damage has been admitted so far. Why risking further escalations, which could bring the situation spiralling out of control? Larry C. Johnson also suggested the same in his latest blog post (all emphasis mine):
If the early reports from Iran are confirmed — i.e., no significant damage to any target in Iran — then the Netanyahu cabinet are going to be taking some big doses of Xanax. If this is the case, then Israel’s attack was an abject failure. It appears that Israel launched ballistic cruise missiles from aircraft outside the territory of Iran. It also appears that the Russian-supplied air defense systems did their job, along with electronic warfare systems, and defeated the Israeli attack.
What does that mean for Iran’s response? I suspect that Russia will encourage them to take-the-win and not retaliate. Iran will have proved that it can penetrate Israel’s air space at will, but that Israel cannot penetrate Iranian air space.
If Israel did succeed in hitting some military targets in Iran — which is highly doubtful at this time based on reports on Iran’s Press TV — then we can expect Iran will hit Israel and inflict damage in the next 24 hours. But, after watching comments from several Iranian pundits (e.g., Professor Marandi), there is no air of anger or calls for revenge.
This morning Al Mayadeen has also quoted Israeli media as saying:
The weak response to Iran is for political purposes, aiming to show Netanyahu's voters that we did something.
The Israeli attack on Iran was actually a showoff and did not achieve any strategic goal.
[UPDATE: See also this Al Mayadeen article with reactions from various Israeli media, commentators and politicians; international reactions, mostly from countries in the Middle East region, can be found in this other Al Mayadeen article.]
In conclusion, the weak Israeli attack against Iran may have been orchestrated just to settle the score with Iran and save Netanyahu face. It also may help improving Kamala Harris’s chances of success at the US Presidential Elections in less than two weeks, especially if the Democrats manage to secure a last-minute ceasefire between Israel on one side and Hamas and Hezbollah on the other, as negotiations have restarted - will they be successful? Only time will tell.
UPDATE (27/10/2024 AM): Overnight Israeli and western media reported about the results of Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production sites and “Iranian air defences that were guarding oil, gas and petrochemical facilities as well as a major port”. See for instance:
this article by The Times of Israel,
this snippet from The Guardian,
this other snippet from The Guardian,
this 3rd snippet from The Guardian.
...but I would be quite cautious over these reports, although the Times of Israel provides satellite images showing damaged buildings, allegedly “associated with missile production”. I have found no mention of these on Iranian media (e.g. Tasnim and IRNA), which instead have focussed on officials’ reactions to the Israeli attack; here is a selection:
first statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry saying “that the Islamic Republic is entitled and duty-bound to defend itself against the Zionist regime’s acts of aggression that took place early on Saturday” - IRNA (click on the link for a summary of the statement),
letter of Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to UN chief, Antonio Guterres and President of the Security Council, Pascal Christian, calling on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) “to condemn the Zionist regime’s attacks on Iran, warning that his country reserves its inherent right to respond legally and legitimately to the Israeli aggression at the appropriate time” - IRNA (click on the link for the full text of the letter),
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s statement during an interview on Iran’s national TV today (Sunday 27th October 2024) declaring that “US complicity in Israel’s escalation of regional tensions is obvious” - IRNA (click on the link to read Araghchi’s statement,
today statement by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, saying that “latest mischievous act of the Zionist regime against Iran should neither be magnified nor downplayed” - IRNA (click on the link for a short summary),
today statement by the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, assuring “that the Islamic Republic will definitely react to the Zionist regime’s most recent act of aggression that took the lives of four Iranian servicemen” (he is the only one clearly promising a retaliation, whereas the others have been more cautious) - Tasnim (click on the link for more info).
UPDATE (27/10/2024 PM): IRNA has reported that on Monday 28th October 2024 the UNSC (United Nations Security Council) will hold a meeting over the Israeli airstrikes against Iran. Nevertheless, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, has now stated that “the Islamic Republic does not seek war, but will respond to any aggression by the Zionist regime at the ‘appropriate time’”, as reported in this article by IRNA, which in another article has quoted Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s Vice-President, as saying that “the perpetrators of the crimes that killed Iranian forces on Saturday will surely receive an appropriate response”.
Response to GeoPolitiQ's "Israel humiliated as Iran foils Israeli attacks"
"and save Netanyahu face. "
Well, it won't do that. This was a very "lame" attack, much like the one Israel did last April. I predicted that Israel would have to "go big or go home" after the last Iranian attack, but for some reason - assuming that the Israeli retaliation actually has ended - Israel decided it couldn't do "big".
We've all known that for Israel to attack Iran without using Jericho missiles requires massive planning and effort to get its jets that far in sufficient numbers with refueling to actually do any significant damage to Iran. Apparently this has now been proven - twice.
I expected that Israel would use either a missile strike - with or without nuclear warheads - on Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities. Attacking air defenses and missile building sites is a pointless attack for two reasons: 1) Without the ability to overwhelm the air defenses - which requires a large-scale attack by cruise missiles - the attack will fail, and 2) if you can't hit the missile launch sites, hitting the production plants is not going to help immediately in the event of a conflict.
Secondly, the entire thrust of the Israeli and US campaign against Iran is over its nuclear energy facilities. Without its nuclear energy production, weapons production of any kind - nuclear or missile - would be severely restricted. Not to mention the entire so-called "justification" is Iran's alleged (and non-existent) "nuclear weapons program." So not hitting that target out of the gate is just stupid from the US and Israeli viewpoint.
Also if you want to provoke Iran to start a war - as both the US and Israel want - not hitting such facilities as the nuclear energy and oil facilities isn't going to be much of a motivator.
So why Israel did not use its missiles or submarines to attack Iran, and why it picked such lame targets as some radars and missile production plants (if they even were missile production plants) is a mystery to me. It makes no rational sense. This implies that someone or something constrained Israel from its proper military response. Whether that was the US or Russia or Israel's own fear of the Iranian response - without the US to bail it out, so far - or simply the constraints on Israel's military capability in some unknown aspect is not clear to me.
The other possibility is that this attack was a "cover" for a more covert Israeli attack to be executed later. As some have suggested, Israel may be planning more assassinations or other provocations against Iran closer to home - similar to the Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Syria in March. This would provide Israel with the ability to further provoke Iran to justify a US intervention against Iran while minimizing the difficulty of directly attacking Iran on its own.
The issue for Israel is always how to get the US to do the heavy lifting against Iran while enabling Israel to escape the brunt of Iran's long-range missile capability (as well as Hezbollah's) so that Israel can mostly escape intact and continue the genocide of the Palestinians.
Whether Netanyahu and his team have the smarts to accomplish that goal is unclear, even with US neocon support for it. Both the neocons and Netanyahu may have miscalculated by starting the Lebanon war too soon while the Iran war and US involvement in that war is still hanging fire.
What the neocons and Israel can do to rectify that is also unclear. Whether this current state of affairs will derail the entire neocon and Israeli project is also unclear.
I think the failure of Israel attack can probably have a very simples explanation:
Mid-flight the F-35 got radar locked and it was decided to abort the attack and send the missiles anyway.
The US and Israel have put all their air coins on the supposed advantage of stealth aircraft supressing air-defenses before the main attack. If stealth is not working anymore as it should, they could not continue their original attack plan.