It's getting hot...
...in the Middle East and in Ukraine!
Of course, I am not talking about the weather, but about the geopolitical situation.
In the first part of this article I will focus on what is happening in Gaza, Palestine and the Middle East, whereas in the second part I will deal with recent developments in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Note to readers: the article exceeds the length limits of the e-mail. To read it in its entirety, just click on the title to open the full online version.
In the last few days we were told that the Israeli government was going to grant a ceasefire (see for instance this article from The Guardian from 4th May 2024), when in fact they were doing everything they could to ensure that nothing came to an end - the usual propaganda used to divert attention from what they were planning.
Let’s not forget that on 30th April 2024 Netanyahu vowed to invade Rafah “with or without a deal” with Hamas on the hostages, as reported for instance by The Washington Post). And just yesterday, 5th May 2024, the Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant released a statement saying that a “strong military action in Rafah will begin in the very near future”, as reported by The Guardian.
Last night there was another massacre right in Rafah, with more children and civilians dead, as reported by the Lebanese Al-Manar news outlet, and this morning the so-called “Israel Defense Forces” (IDF) issued an evacuation order from eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah to the Palestinians, because they want to enter with tanks. Where are these people supposed to go?
According to the IDF, they should go to the “expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi”, near Khan Yunis (see map above), where everything has been razed to the ground by IDF itself, which also states that such “expanded humanitarian area includes field hospitals, tents and increased amounts of food, water, medicine and other supplies”. However, do not think that it would be safe. As reported by The Guardian in March, “any safety in al-Mawasi is only relative to the rest of the territory”. For instance, back in January 2024 a near-fatal Israeli airstrike hit a residential compound hosting medical teams, humanitarian workers and their families, whereas in February 2024 an Israeli attack hit a shelter operated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), killing two MSF staff family members and injuring six other people.
The fact that “Egypt has raised its military’s level of preparedness in northern Sinai”, as per The Guardian, is indicative that actually Israel may soon attempt to force the ~1.4 million Palestinians jammed in Rafah out of Gaza and into Egypt. And let’s not forget that earlier this year Egypt built “a fortified buffer zone near its border with the Gaza Strip” (source: Al Jazeera).
Ynet, one of the major Israeli news outlets, has reported that Israel’s War Cabinet approved the launch of a military operation in Rafah yesterday (5th April 2024), but it has also quoted a senior Israeli official saying that, despite the beginning of evacuations, “everything is reversible. If Hamas agrees to a deal - the operation can be stopped”. However, this clashes with what Benjamin Netanyahu said just a week ago, on 30th April 2024:
The idea that we will halt the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question. We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate Hamas’ battalions there — with or without a deal, to achieve the total victory.
So, do not be fooled by “senior Israeli officials” and the MSM. They are just trying to put the blame on Hamas, as reported by The Guardian:
In practice they are blaming Hamas for the military operation in Rafah as a consequence of Hamas’s attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing and for not accepting Israeli conditions for a truce, though Hamas affirms that the “threat to invade Rafah will not pressure it in course of talks” and that “considering occupation's [i.e. Israel’s] threat of complete or partial invasion of Rafah, Hamas may halt ongoing talks” (source: Al Mayadeen).
By the way, as reported by The Guardian, “Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has criticised Hamas for a rocket attack near the Kerem Shalom crossing at the weekend which killed four Israeli soldiers”, however she does not have anything to say about the hundreds of Palestinians dying every day.
I am afraid that things may turn uglier in Gaza now that the IDF is starting its military operation in Rafah. Let’s hope that someone puts some pressure on Israel to stop its invasion! Of course, I do not expect anything from the Outlaw US Empire or its vassal states in Europe, though Joe Biden has apparently had a phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this afternoon (source: Axios), but I hope that Muslim and Arab countries increase their pressure on Israel.
Just a few days ago, Turkey suspended all trade (import and export) with Israel “until the Israeli Government allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza”, as reported by Reuters, and the Houthis in Yemen pledged “to intensify attacks on shipping in the Red Sea if Israel attacks Rafah in southern Gaza”, as reported by Al Jazeera. If countries such as United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia decided to finally stop trading with Israel, then Israel may think twice before proceeding with the invasion or Rafah!
Let’s now turn our eyes to the Russo-Ukrainian war, as the temperature is rising here as well. Earlier today Simplicius The Thinker has published an excellent sit-rep:
However, things have escalated just in a matter of hours. So, here we go with my update on what’s going on.
First of all, this morning the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, ordered nuclear exercises involving some troops near Ukraine. Here is the announcement from the Russian Defence Ministry, as reported by TASS earlier today [all emphasis mine]:
On an instruction from the supreme commander-in-chief of the Russian Armed Forces and for the purposes of raising the preparedness of non-strategic nuclear forces for accomplishing combat objectives, the General Staff has launched preparations for holding drills in the immediate future with missile formations of the Southern Military District with the involvement of aircraft and naval forces.
The exercise aims to maintain the preparedness of troops and equipment for the combat employment of non-strategic nuclear weapons to react and unconditionally ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state in response to provocative statements and threats by some Western officials against the Russian Federation.
Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, later clarified that the Russian Ministry of Defence was referring to comments by the French President Emmanuel Macron on possibly sending soldiers to Ukraine (see this article on France24), as well as statements from the British and US Senate representatives, as reported by TASS and The Guardian.
As if that was not enough, this afternoon the French and British ambassadors to Moscow were summoned to the Russian foreign ministry, whose spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, later published this post (in Russian) on her Telegram channel [all emphasis mine]:
❗️ On the summons of the British Ambassador to the Russian Foreign Ministry
On 6 May the British Ambassador to Moscow, N. Casey, was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry and strongly protested against the recent statement by British Prime Minister D. Cameron in an interview with Reuters about the right of Ukraine to strike at Russian territory using British weapons.
N. Casey was pointed out that Cameron's hostile outburst directly contradicts the British side's earlier assurances during the transfer of long-range cruise missiles to the Kiev regime that they would not be used on Russian territory under any circumstances. In doing so, the head of the Foreign Office disavowed this position, recognising his country as a de facto party to the conflict.
The ambassador was told that the Russian side regards Cameron's words as evidence of a serious escalation and confirmation of London's growing involvement in military action on the side of Kyiv. N. Casey was warned that the response to the Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russian territory could be any UK military facilities and equipment on Ukrainian territory and beyond.
☝️ The Ambassador was called upon to reflect on the inevitable catastrophic consequences of such hostile steps by London and to immediately refute in the strongest and most unequivocal manner the bellicose provocative statements by the head of the Foreign Office.
Please re-read the statement above that I emphasized in bold. It is the first time that Russia clearly states that it is ready to strike military facilities not just in Ukrainian territory, but also “beyond”, e.g. within UK itself!
Maria Zakharova published also this other post (in Russian) on her Telegram channel [all emphasis mine]:
⚡️ Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with the holding by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of exercises to practise the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.
In connection with the forthcoming exercises to be conducted by the Russian military to practice the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, we note that this event should be viewed in the context of recent bellicose statements by Western officials and the dramatically destabilising actions taken by a number of NATO countries aimed at exerting pressure on the Russian Federation <...>.
👉 First of all, we are talking about openly declared support and direct assistance to terrorist actions against Russia, carried out by the Kiev regime with the use of increasingly advanced weapons transferred by the West. <...>
In addition to British and French long-range missile systems, which have long been “flashed” in Ukraine, against this background we would like to emphasise the versions of American ATACMS missiles, which have recently been supplied to Kiev and are also capable of hitting targets deep inside Russian territory.
At the same time, in an effort to increase the multifaceted missile threats to our country, the United States has openly and clearly embarked on the path of deploying in various regions of the world ground systems with intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF), which were previously banned under the INF Treaty. <...>
❗️ We explicitly state that whenever and wherever US-made land-based INFs appear, we reserve the right to react in a mirror-like manner, which would mean the termination of the unilateral Russian moratorium on the deployment of the said weapons systems. <...>
These and some other actions of the member states of the North Atlantic bloc actually indicate that they are consciously leading the matter towards further escalation of the Ukrainian crisis towards an open military clash between NATO countries and Russia as part of the implementation of a hostile course to inflict a "strategic defeat" on our country.
The INF treaty referred to above is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (if my understanding is correct), from which the US withdrew on 2nd August 2019.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, also wrote the following post (in Russian) on his Telegram channel (all emphasis mine):
The chorus of irresponsible scoundrels among the Western political elite calling for sending their troops to a non-existent country is expanding. It now includes representatives of the United States Congress, the French and British leadership, and individual lunatics from the Baltic States and Poland. They also call for the active use of their missile weapons, supplied by them to the Banderites, throughout the territory of Russia.
And this is not a spring aggravation, but a cynical calculation for political dividends. There is some kind of total degradation of the ruling class in the West. This class really does not want to connect elementary things logically. Sending its troops into the territory of b. Ukraine will entail a direct entry of their countries into the war, to which we will have to respond. And, alas, not on the territory of b. Ukraine.
In this case, none of them will be able to hide neither on Capitol Hill, nor in the Elysee Palace, nor at 10 Downing Street. There will be a world catastrophe.
By the way, Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to realise this more than 60 years ago. But the infantile morons in the West, who have seized power today, do not want to realise it.
And that is why today the General Staff has begun preparations for the exercises, including measures to practise the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.
It is quite clear that the (geopolitical) temperature is rising in Ukraine… and in Europe. I hope that European governments are paying attention to all these warnings from Russia or we might be heading fast towards World War 3.
The following snippet from The Guardian is also worth a mention:
Not much in the snippet per se, but in light of the arrest warrant against the current Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky (and the former president Petro Poroshenko), as noted at the beginning of Simplicius The Thinker’s latest article, as well as in Gilbert Doctorow’s blog post today. In this light it is quite funny that the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba calls on allies not to recognize Putin as Russia’s “legitimate president”, in spite of a landslide victory (88% of the votes, with a 77.49% turnout) in the latest Russian Presidential Elections, whereas Volodymyr Zelensky will soon become a de-facto illegitimate President of Ukraine, since his mandate expires on 21st May 2024 and no Presidential Elections took place in March, as they were cancelled by Zelensky himself with the excuse of martial law and the ongoing war with Russia.
P.S.: Just while I was finishing writing the second half of this article, breaking news came out reporting that “Hamas movement informed the Qatari and Egyptian mediators that it approves of their proposed deal”, as reported by Al Mayadeen, quoting a “Senior Palestinian Resistance official” saying:
The mediators and Hamas reached a new, tight formula that would lead to a ceasefire, thus overcoming this dilemma.
Hamas was extremely flexible in reaching an agreement, and the ball is now in "Israel’s" court.
However, a few minutes later, the same Al Mayadeen quoted an Israeli official saying:
Hamas' announcement appears to be a ruse to cast “Israel” as the side refusing a deal.
The proposal includes 'far-reaching' conclusions that "Israel" does not agree to.
In summary, it is too early to say that the (geo-political) temperature in Palestine may be dropping, after all. We have to wait and see what happens in the next few hours!
UPDATE (06/052024 - 21:40 CEST): Al Mayadeen is reporting the following:
Israeli war cabinet decides unanimously to push ahead with an operation in Rafah “in order to apply military pressure on Hamas”.
…as well as…
Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Gaza: Very violent and continuous bombardment on the eastern region of Rafah.
Alas, this confirms my initial fears that the geo-political temperature in Palestine is increasing and not dropping (as I hoped, when I first published this article)!
Thanks, Ismaele.
I appreciate your updates!