I hate saying “I told you so!”, but here we go (almost!). In my article at the end of August 2026 and - if my memory serves me well - in more recent articles, I warned that we should…
expect one or even two black swan events (e.g. one in Eastern Europe and another one in the Middle East) at some point this autumn/winter, probably just before the elections in Israel (scheduled on 27th October 2026) and in the Outlaw US Empire1 (scheduled on 3rd November 2026), so that both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald J. Trump can stay in power and wage an infrastructure or nuclear war on the Axis of Resistance (Iran, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, etc.), given that all the other options have failed, while NATO (but mostly UK and Europe) can confront Russia.
Just two days ago, on Sunday 27th September 2026, we had a failed false-flag operation near RAF2/USAF3 Fairford airbase in UK (see Al Mayadeen (1 and 2) for the latest, revealing that the 3 vans found outside the base did not contain any “viable explosives”, according to the police).
Today (Tuesday 29th September 2026) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, speaking from the Tel Nof airbase, claimed that…
We have indications that, ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us.
So from here, from the Air Force base, from the long arm of Israel, I am sending you a message: Don’t mess with us — not now, and not ever. Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time. [Emphasis mine]
…as reported by The Times of Israel, Al Mayadeen and Middle East Spectator (MES). In short, Netanyahu gave away his plan to orchestrate another false-flag operation, in Israel or somewhere else, so that he can justify the resumption of the war on Iran, cancel the elections and stay in power, since he risks to lose the election and then end up in jail at the end of his corruption trial. The President of the corrupt Outlaw US Empire and Paedophile in Chief of the Epstein regime4 and anti-Christ5, Donald J. Trump may organize another one on US soil as well, so that he can postpone or even better cancel the mid-term elections and launch joint USraeli attack on Iran.
Following Bibi’s revelation, Israeli opposition Leader Yair Lapid requested an emergency security update from Netanyahu, who summoned Lapid to a limited security cabinet taking place tonight, as per The Times of Israel (1 and 2) and MES.
It is also worth reporting that the Shin Bet6 will not provide security to Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF7 chief and a leading contender to become Israel’s next Prime Minister (source: Times of Israel). I wonder if Netanyahu is thinking of killing two birds with one stone: stage a false-flag operation with the Eisenkot’s murder and blame it on Iran!
Additionally, today Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz threatened the assassination of Hamas leaders abroad, as reported by Al Mayadeen, IRNA and The Times of Israel, which quoted him as saying (emphasis added):
The IDF eliminated the commander of Hamas’s Northern Gaza Brigade overnight, as part of the ongoing series of operations against the terror leaders in Gaza.
The Hamas leaders abroad are also in the crosshairs.
None of these despicable murderers, who played a central role in the 7th October [2023] massacre, may be allowed to die peacefully.
Once they escaped due to a malfunction. But the next time will come, and they too will be sent to the depths of hell. [A reference to the failed attempt to kill Hamas’s leaders in Doha (Qatar) in 2025]
This also gives Israel the possibility of justifying itself in case of new failed false-flag operations abroad. The Mossad8 “accidentally” kills some innocent Westerns? Oops… sh*t happens, we wanted kill Hamas “terrorists”!
Moving to Iran, its Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) published a 26-page-long letter to the American people calling them to take control of their own fate and distance themselves from the “occupiers of Palestine”, as per IRNA. Here are some brief, but significant excerpts (the full text can be found here (PDF), on Tasnim and Mehr - all emphasis mine):
You, the American people, have the power to forestall this grim fate. You need to force your government to distance itself from Israel, as the occupiers of Palestine will, sooner or later, have to leave the land they occupy and return to their countries of origin.
We can live together in peaceful coexistence. Remove from power the evil, deceitful, and violent politicians who are responsible for America’s current state. Entrust your affairs to the wise, not the wily. Make sure your politicians understand that the world has changed.
The people all around the world have awakened. The era when the US could plunder the wealth of nations through military might has come to an end. This century is the century when the will of the people will triumph. If the US chooses to continue on its evil path, a painful fate awaits it. As Imam Ali states in Nahj al-Balaghah, ‘The day when the oppressed triumph over the tyrant shall be far more dreadful than the day the tyrant prevailed”.
At a press conference today, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi explained the rationale behind this letter (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Tasnim and Mehr - all emphasis added):
Our goal in sending the letter to the American people goes beyond media publicity and is aimed at creating familiarity with Iran’s logic.
We addressed the American people, not the American government, to reveal the facts before them.
We decided to speak to the American people in an honest, logical and genuine manner.
Choosing a letter as a tool to convey our message directly and clearly is a solution that was selected based on the realities that exist. [Referring to the hundreds of TV and radio networks owned by the Outlaw US Empire around the world]
Given this reality, the question arises: What is the purpose of deploying 800 US military bases around the world? And on what basis is the economic and logical justification for spending $1.1 trillion on the US military budget founded?
US military doesn’t have ability to fight countries with 10% of Pentagon’s military budget
The lie of the century is that Iran wants to produce a nuclear weapon.
I am speaking directly to the American people: You must confront the reality of these numerous attacks and the consequences arising from them over the decades.
To the American people we say: the people who have all these riches, why do they have a large number of poor people? Are American policies not wrong?
I ask the American people why your science crushes peoples?
Speaking to Tasnim (see also Fars), Mohebbi commented on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran keep hitting violating vessels (see Mehr - all emphasis mine):
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and what the Americans claim about it being open does not correspond to the existing reality.
The fact that the Americans, under the cover of darkness, at great expense, with considerable difficulty and under highly risky conditions, manage to pass a small vessel through the Strait of Hormuz and export, for example, 100 or 200 barrels of oil, does not mean the strait is open. Such an act more closely resembles smuggling or theft.
The Strait of Hormuz can be considered open only when at least 125 ships used to transit this route and a minimum of 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through it daily. Does such a situation exist now? No, it does not. Therefore, the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Any vessel that attempts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will suffer damage — either we will target it, or it will strike a mine itself.
We will not stop until we drive the US out of the region, punish the aggressor and achieve lasting deterrence.
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, cautioned against a renewed aggression on Iran, in case of which new fronts will be opened (source: Fars):
The addition of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait would change the scene of the war.
…while Army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami-Nia warned that Iran would launch pre-emptive strikes if threatened once again (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA (1 and 2) and Mehr - all emphasis added):
Certainly the Americans are moving and active in the region. But as for whether a war will actually break out, we in the armed forces and the army of the Islamic Republic of Iran have tried to make maximum use of the opportunity of the ceasefire, update our target bank, optimise our equipment, bring new equipment into our combat organisation, and use the reserves, experiences and lessons of the war period.
Regarding America, I think the Americans are not in a good position in the region, because their bases have suffered serious damage. Our observations show this, through aerial and satellite imagery and through field observations on the ground. Information tells us that American bases have suffered very serious damage, and most of these bases can no longer even be rebuilt.
Our overall analysis is that the current situation for America is not a favourable one. From this aspect, the Americans may want to create a change to alter this situation and may commit an act of aggression.
After the 12-day war, we advanced our strategy toward pre-emptive war.
If we determine that an enemy attack is imminent, we will certainly carry out a preemptive operation
In this war we practically operationalised this strategy, where we targeted the positions of anti-revolutionary and separatist groups in Iraq's Kurdistan region.
This is in fact a kind of pre-emptive war. Before the enemy could commit aggression, it was targeted. And you have seen that until today, the anti-revolutionaries have not been able to carry out any operation against our land borders.
In a meeting in Tehran today with Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Major General Mohsen Rezaei, said that…
Trump is caught in a quagmire where he can neither negotiate nor fight.
Iran’s conditions have been conveyed to the United States, but Trump is unable to make a decision, and the United States, out of desperation, has resorted to an air siege in the military war.
Many foreigners have come and gone throughout history, but Iran and the countries of the region remain.
…as quoted by Al Mayadeen, IRNA and Mehr (all emphasis mine).
At an open session of the Majlis9 today, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated (sources: IRNA, Tasnim and Mehr - all emphasis added):
The leaders of the White House should know that the great and history-making nation of Iran will never retreat in the face of saber-rattling and rhetoric or an air or trade blockade, and the response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to any threat or adventurism will be harshly regret-inducing and swift.
If the American enemy’s decision-making apparatus fails to understand this fundamental truth, it will remain trapped in the cycle of receiving heavy slaps from the Iranian nation.
Both the Americans and other countries should know that, as we have said, in a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil, and if our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe.
…echoed by Ebrahim Azizi Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission (all emphasis mine):
If the United States once again makes a miscalculation and takes action contrary to Iran's national interests and security, it will face painful responses and devastating blows from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran has attained significant deterrence capabilities. Should the Americans persist in this misguided path, like 12- and 40-day wars or the naval blockade and/or commit further mistakes due to miscalculation, the Islamic Republic of Iran has ample options to deliver painful responses, leveraging its defensive and military posture as well as its geopolitical standing in the region
Iran possesses numerous tools to respond to the US move taken and also the countries aligning with it [US], and it can apply any of these capabilities at the appropriate time with prudence, rationality, and intelligence.
For instance, if we were to decide today to block the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz against export of certain goods and oil by countries that have complied with the air embargo against Iran, this would constitute one of our available tools and is considered as very important capability.
…as reported by Mehr (1 and 2), which also quoted Iranian Government Spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani as saying:
American authorities and officials have set a new deadline for several times, this time for Iran's economy. Iran will continue to build, stand and defend its rights relying on its people.
Moving to the diplomatic front, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi provided an update to Iranian journalists on the latest talks in New York before returning to Iran (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA (1 and 2), Fars, Tasnim and Mehr - all emphasis added):
Today, we met and held talks with the Qatari mediators again and discussed some ideas that they will raise with the American side, and then the final response of the American side will be conveyed to us.
There are conditions, and they have been emphasized by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, and these conditions must be implemented for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened.
Our mission was to inform the American side of these conditions and also to inform all other countries and the international community, so that it would be clear that Iran has a plan in this regard.
Our plan, which became known as the seven-point plan, was conveyed to the Americans through the Qatari mediator. Despite what the US president said, I said we are waiting for an official American response through the mediators.
We had intensive and busy days, but I think the results were very good. We showed Iran in the international arena, present with confidence, strength and pride, defending its interests.
If there is a response, the Qataris will convey it to us and a decision will be made in Tehran on that basis, but I will leave New York in a few hours.
Today, it has become clear to everyone that the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite all the injustices inflicted upon it and the wars imposed on it, has a voice, logic, and solution in the diplomatic arena.
Some foreign ministers explicitly said this in their own words, and it was proven here that Iran is not only not isolated, but is highly respected and receives considerable attention.
[Regarding Iran’s alleged flexibility in nuclear talks] This is completely untrue. I strongly deny it. We have seen propaganda emerging in various media over the past few hours, with claims being made and statements attributed to Iran.
I declare with certainty that no change has occurred in Iran’s positions. Our conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are clear. At present, there has been no discussion whatsoever on the nuclear issue that would involve any flexibility. The only subject is the Strait of Hormuz. Its reopening is contingent upon the fulfillment of certain conditions that we have already conveyed to the other side.
…while Nasser Asadi, Third Counsellor at Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations (UN) in New York, blasted Canadian Foreign Minister for his speech at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), where she described Iran as the main threat to regional peace and security (sources: IRNA and Mehr):
No fabrication and lie can absolve Canada and other Western countries, especially the United States, of their international responsibilities and the individual criminal responsibility of their officials for complicity in the crimes committed by the Israeli regime in our region.
Responding to remarks by an Emirati diplomat at the UNGA, Nasser Asadi asserted Iranian sovereignty over 3 islands in the Persian Gulf (Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb) against the territorial claims of the United Arab Emirates (UAE - see map below - sources: IRNA and Mehr):
These islands have always been, are and will be an inseparable part of Iran's territory, and Iran's sovereignty over them is not negotiable.
We categorically reject any claim regarding these islands.
The name “Persian Gulf” is the only correct geographical name for the body of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. This name has been used since the beginning of history and is recognised by the United Nations system.
On the same topic, Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi tweeted (sources: X, IRNA and Mehr):
Repeating baseless claims about the Iranian islands, even from the rostrum of the General Assembly, does not alter the reality.
Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb are inseparable parts of Iran's territory.
Emirati officials should, instead of repeating unfounded claims, adhere to the requirements of good neighborliness and the historical and legal realities of the region.
Meanwhile, the US administration will release 40 million more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to tame the impact of the war against Iran, even though the stockpile is reaching to bottom of the barrel (see Al Mayadeen), with Europe suffering a significant increase in fossil fuel import bill, as admitted by the EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen today (source: Al Mayadeen):
It’s now €100bn that we’ve paid extra for our energy this year, without receiving one extra molecule of gas or oil.
Of course, he did not mention the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Europe, widely celebrated by then Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and her European partners in crime! If Europe had still good relations with Russia, instead of waging a proxy war against it in Ukraine, Europeans would not be suffering so much from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East!
News and updates from Iraq and Lebanon
Moving to Iraq, this afternoon Mehr reported that flights connecting Najaf and 3 other Iraqi airports to Iran had restarted last night, after being suspended to comply with US sanctions on Iran and the subsequent nationwide protests. Similarly IRNA reported that Iraqi Airways will resume flights to Iran soon.
However, Sheikh Ali al-Asadi, Head of the Political Council of the Iraqi Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, in an interview with Al Mayadeen, criticized the Iraqi government for its decision to abide by US sanctions and prevent Iranian aircraft from landing at Iraqi airports and touched upon other topics, including US occupations and weapons of Resistance factions (all emphasis mine):
We regret the decision by the Iraqi authorities to prevent Iranian aircraft from landing in Iraq. The Iraqi decision-maker must reconsider it; otherwise there will be popular pressure aimed at changing the decision.
The issue goes beyond airports. There are close relations with Iran, and therefore we must not bow to an irresponsible decision by America. Popular options will be the most pressing, and all possibilities are on the table.
The weakness of the domestic political actor has allowed the American occupation to impose its decisions in Iraq. The decision-maker can choose not to implement American decisions, as some countries do.
The decision must be sovereign and independent politically, economically, and in terms of security.
There are personal and partisan interests behind the absence of independence in decision-making.
The Resistance’s positions have been clear from the beginning, while the Iraqi politicians have ambiguity and complications.
We discussed the matter with the Coordination Framework and rejected the term “weapons confinement”. We established that the term is harmful and changed it to “weapons regulation”. Iraq’s biggest problem is corruption, not weapons.
We are in favor of the Dawn Strike against corruption, but we want it to continue. There are clearly identified corrupt figures, and the law must be applied to them.
We do not trust the Americans one iota, and they do not keep their word. What happened with Iran is the biggest proof that the Americans do not keep their word. They struck Iran during negotiations, and this is proof of their treachery.
Iraq must be free, and the American envoy must not interfere in economic, security, or political affairs. We have information about all the American movements and about the division they established, which includes Iraqis under their supervision.
We know where this division is located and what its duties will be in the coming phase, and all of this is being monitored. It is like “Blackwater” under another name.
The American movement is suspicious, and they have security companies that entered to compensate for the American military withdrawal.
We in Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba have no decision to engage in the political process, and we are not convinced by the way it is being managed.
The conditions for handing over weapons are ending the American occupation and all foreign presence, including the Turkish presence.
The separatist factions are one of Iraq’s problems, and whenever Resistance intervention is necessary, we will intervene in every inch of Iraqi territory.
The Resistance has its justifications for resistance, and when these justifications end, so does Resistance.
[Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi] wants to serve the public interest and do the required work, based on his Shia identity, if I may put it that way.
Unfortunately, he does not have advisors who are genuinely committed to making his experience successful. Rather, his advisors are concerned with making themselves successful.
They do not want to help him become a successful figure who can lead during this stage and perhaps the next stage.
Whoever leads Iraq must understand what Iraq truly is and what the cards of strength and leverage in Iraq are.
Who needs Iraq? Does Europe not need Iraq? Does Turkey not need Iraq? Doesn't the Development Road that they are talking about need Iraq?
All of these are leverage cards a political actor can use to achieve what he wants. He can even use the cards held by the Resistance factions as leverage. We are offering him this card and telling him: Use us for the sake of serving Iraq.
Many of America’s allies sent us messages asking for a truce, including the American chargé d’affaires who tried to contact us through one of the politicians and asked to meet with us.
The Americans offered projects and incentives on condition that we give up our strategic weapons that reach Israel, but we rejected them.
American pressure does not stop at any point. Even if the factions hand over their weapons, they will move on to the Popular Mobilization Forces and then to the Defense Ministry.
The main American project for years has sought to change the leadership of the Popular Mobilization Forces and dilute it, but the religious authority and some politicians rejected that.
By the way, tomorrow (Wednesday 30th September 2026) is the last of US occupation of Iraq and today Italy completed the withdrawal of its last troops, after a 12-year military presence, as reported by Al Mayadeen, quoting the Italian Defense Ministry, according to which only 2 Italian Carabinieri10 officers will stay in the country as part of the European Union Advisory Mission in Iraq (EUAM Iraq).
Moving briefly to Lebanon, today, during a meeting with US Congress members Darin LaHood and Josh Gottheimer, attended by US Chargé d'Affaires in Lebanon Keith Hanigan, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called for the renewal of the mandate of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) before its scheduled expiration, as per Al Mayadeen, which quoted him as saying:
There is still enough time to avoid committing the sin of not renewing the mandate of UNIFIL operating in southern Lebanon.
The main obstacle to implementing the agreement to end the war on Lebanon is Israel's failure to fulfill its obligations under all the agreements concluded to end it.
The US administration and President Donald Trump are the only ones capable of exerting pressure to compel Israel to stop its war on Lebanon.
The right of Lebanon to pursue Israel for its crimes is a sovereign right that cannot be relinquished in any way.
In the meantime, Little Satan (a.k.a. Israel) continues its war crimes in the south of Lebanon, carrying out explosions in Mais al-Jabal, Majdal Zoun and Mansouri, as reported by Al Mayadeen.
News and updates from UAE, Yemeni and UK
In my previous update yesterday I reported on Netanyahu’s recent visit to Abu Dhabi (UAE). Now Israeli Channel 14 revealed that Netanyahu’s meeting with President Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) was attended also by representatives of other Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Kuwait, Bahrain, Libya (Haftar), Oman and Egypt, as reported by Al Mayadeen and MES, according to which “the discussions focussed on Iran, closer cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states, economic issues and Israeli defense systems”.
Moving briefly to Yemen, Al Mayadeen today quoted a Yemeni military source as saying that “any attempt to establish or assemble Saudi-affiliated military formations in Yemen will face direct targeting by the Yemeni army”, adding that “the Yemeni Armed Forces [YAF] will not allow Saudi-backed forces to establish positions or military buildups”, whereas YAF spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree announced that…
During the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 35 airstrikes using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from Khamis Mushait and Taif bases, targeting civilian objects, including communication networks, schools, and other facilities in the provinces of Taiz, Al-Jawf, Amran, Sa'ada, and Al-Hodeidah.
This brings the total number of Saudi aggression raids and missiles since the start of the escalation to 1,158.
…as quoted by RNN Mirror and Saba.
I will conclude this article with the following video from Al Manar showing an undated meeting of the late Hezbollah Secretary Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah with a group of Hezbollah’s elite fighters, Al-Rudwan:
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See these two posts by Karl Sanchez on why I use his descriptor of the USA:
Royal Air Force
United States Air Force
See these translations for more information about the so-called Epstein regime
For this descriptor, see my commentary and the poll at the end of this translation
Israel's internal security service
Israel “Defense” Forces
National intelligence agency of Israel
Iranian Parliament
Great that the Canadian Foreign Minister is chastised at the UN, these people, all of the EU Elites, are non-rational actors on the world stage, still trying to rebuild a glorified version of the past. Join the new world order or be left in the dustbin of history.
"The addition of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait would change the scene of the war."
Indeed, as I've suggested, Iran should take a more direct approach to supporting Ansarallh by directly targeting the Saudi forces in Yemen, as well as Israeli forces in Lebanon.
Regarding Netanyahu's threat to restart the war, in my view Iran should say, "OK, you want to renew the war, here, let us show you how" - and start bombing Israel again.
As the saying goes, "If you have the Devil's name, play the Devil's game". As I've said, Iran is going to be blamed anyway, might as well do something to earn the blame.
Preemptive always beats waiting - and prevention trumps preemption.