THE MIDDLE EASTERN PINBALL MACHINE
What follows is my English translation of an article by Fabrizio Bertolami from ComeDonChisciotte.org:
The Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 has set in motion a chain of potentially devastating dynamics, not only in the entire Middle East area, but probably throughout the world.
Like in a pinball machine, the ball thrown by the Palestinian militiamen bounces from one nation to another, without excluding any, rekindling tensions that seemed dormant, if not buried, after the Abraham Accords desired by Trump.
That agreement, signed by Israel with Qatar, the UAE and Morocco, seemed to be only the penultimate step by Tel Aviv, before being able to achieve the historic result of establishing diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, the last piece of a strategy that starts from the peace with Egypt in '78 and passes through that with Jordan in '94. Following its implementation, the Israeli state would have had all the Sunni nations on its side, excluding Turkey, and could have prepared for a war against Iran with its back covered.
Instead, the first effect of the IDF retaliation on Gaza was precisely the freezing of the rapprochement between Ryad and Tel Aviv and a simultaneous increase of the Iranian presence in the whole area. Saudi [crown prince] Mohammed Bin Salman has already said that further steps on the agreement cannot be taken unless Israel accepts the “two peoples, two states” solution for Palestine. The Saudi population, as much as it can count in a monarchy like Riyadh, agrees by a large majority.
Türkiye, which has had difficult relations with Israel since the events surrounding the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla” in 2010, has repeatedly spoken out against the Israeli retaliation, calling Hamas a 'liberation movement' and threatening to report Tel Aviv to the International Criminal Court for Crimes against Humanity, explicitly speaking of Genocide. In early January, the Ankara government had several people arrested on charges of being Mossad spies.
Lebanon is teetering on the brink of a new war, like the one in 2006 between the Shiites of Hezbollah (backed and armed by Iran, but not only), and border skirmishes are multiplying. Netanyahu has already warned the leader of the 'Party of God' not to enter the fray, but Nasrallah, while taking his time, has said that he is ready to confront Tsahal [i.e. Israeli Defense Forces or IDF] at any time, on the strength of his victory (or non defeat) in the 2006 war.
Skirmishes on the Israeli-Lebanese border have been ongoing since the early days of the conflict, and even the UN mission (UNIFIL) has come under attack. A direct armed confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel would have far-reaching repercussions, and would be prodromal to an entry of Iran into the conflict. Lebanon, Syria and Iran represent that 'Shia Crescent' that is the main thorn in the side for Israeli policies in the Middle East. Obviously not all Lebanese (who are divided between Christians, Sunnis and Shiites) would agree to enter into conflict with such a powerful neighbour, mindful of previous disastrous wars, but the Lebanese army is unable to prevent Hezbollah from launching itself into the venture and partly agrees with the Shiites' desire to confront the aggressive neighbour and defend the nation. The Israeli intelligence and army have already struck Lebanese territory, assassinating in Beirut Saleh Al-Arouri, one of the Hamas leaders and founders of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam brigades, the military arm of Hamas, believed to be the author of the 7 October attacks.
Jordan, crock pot among many iron pots, has positioned its army on the border with the West Bank, warning the Tel Aviv government against pursuing any plan to push the Palestinians into its territory. The Jordanian Foreign Minister warned that any violation would jeopardise the current peace agreement with Israel. The large presence of Palestinian refugees on its territory also risks becoming an element of instability for the Kingdom.
Egypt is one of the nations that are most involved in the crisis situation, not only because its territory borders directly on the Gaza Strip and the Rafah crossing is its main interface, but also because some Israeli representatives have gone so far as to propose “exiling” the inhabitants of the [Gaza] Strip to the Sinai, creating tent camps to house them. It goes without saying that it would be Egypt that would have to take on this mass of refugees and bear the brunt of the pressure, and obviously the Cairo government is opposed to this solution. Egypt is also part of that group of governments, along with Qatar and the United States, which is acting as a mediator in the negotiations between Hamas and Israel for the release of hostages, to reach a truce or to try to end the conflict.
Yemen is the real surprise element of the conflict; the 5-year-long clash between the Houthi (Shia) minority and Saudi Arabia (Sunni and Wahhabi) has turned into a new, distant but connected front in the fighting between Hamas and the IDF. Thanks to their control of the Bab El-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, every ship heading for Suez or Eilat was targeted by the Houthi militias' missiles, forcing the US, Britain and soon also Europe to send military ships to protect trade. This pressure forced major Western shipping companies (but not Russian or Chinese ones) to choose an alternative route circumnavigating Africa, lengthening the journey time and with it the cost of the goods transported. The freight cost of ships and containers has doubled since the beginning of the conflict, as has the insurance burden for vessels.
Syria and Iraq are also back in the game, due to the presence of American bases on their territory and the attacks they are now suffering on a daily basis from pro-Shia Iraqi militias, if not directly from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Pasdaran) squads.
The American presence in Syria has not been approved by any UN resolution and is therefore not legal under international law, and the American government is even considering withdrawing in view of the high number of deaths and injuries caused by the attacks. In fact, if those bases are functional to the strategic encirclement of Iran, it is also true that they represent a weak point, since they are simultaneously exposed to Iranian, Syrian and ISIS militant remnants threats.
Iran is the real “elephant in the room” in this situation since, although it cannot be directly blamed for what is happening in the whole area, it is undeniable that it has a non-marginal weight. Knowing that it is the main target that both Israel and the US are aiming at (the latter actually rather reluctant to enter into a direct conflict with the Persians), Iran is allegedly arming and providing logistical support to all the actors opposing Tel Aviv: Hezbollah, Houthi, Iraqi militias, and Hamas are benefiting from the expertise and weapons provided by Tehran, to their mutual gain. Tel Aviv has already responded to Iranian actions not only by striking the Al-Quds brigades of the IRGC in Syria but especially by assassinating the Pasdaran general Musavi during an attack on Damascus.
In its wanderings from nation to nation, the ball in this pinball machine has also hit Ukraine, leading to a cooling of American interest in this scenario and the consequent reduction of the funds allocated to Kiev for armaments. The onus is likely to remain on Europe alone, which is however beginning to show cracks in its unity, particularly by Hungary and Slovakia, unwilling to continue sending billions of Euros ad libitum.
Obviously Israel, Gaza and the West Bank are where the pinball machine risks tilting: The Nethanyahu government is caught between two fires, caught between Hamas on the outside and the anger of the hostages' families on the inside. The Likud leader's popularity is in free fall, clashes with the White House are daily and Biden's dissatisfaction is now clear. Even the European Union, through the mouth of its High Representative for Foreign Policy Borrell, has wondered “How many [deaths in Gaza] is too many?” alluding to the tragically high number of victims of the Israeli bombardment, which has now reached almost 25,000 (mostly women and children). Bibi is not listening to anyone and wants to shoot straight “until complete victory” and the total elimination of Hamas, a task that does not seem achievable at the moment. The extension of the tunnels under the [Gaza] Strip is growing day by day and, by the IDF's own admission, it will not be possible to destroy them completely.
To date it is not clear how many Hamas militiamen have been killed by the IDF, which says that they are at least 9,000 (a third of the total dead), nor can we be sure of the figures for the Israeli soldiers killed during the operations, which, again according to the Israeli army, are about 220, several of whom were killed by “friendly fire”. At least 24 of them died on 23 January, buried by the collapse of a building that they were mining and that was hit by a rocket fired by Palestinians. The real numbers may never be known, covered by military secrecy on both sides, as in the war in Ukraine. The number of Hamas militiamen, estimated before 7 October, was 30,000 (perhaps more), equipped with weapons in unknown numbers, but certainly high, considering the strenuous resistance and the large number of Israeli armoured vehicles destroyed.
The “two peoples, two states” solution is back in vogue all around the world and is now seen as the only acceptable solution to put an end to an ongoing conflict that has now lasted 75 years. Needless to say, the Israeli right wing has no intention of giving in and several of its representatives (including ministers) have proposed unfeasible solutions and, in any case, outside any international norms, going so far as to propose the “deportation” of the entire population of Gaza to African nations or even to an island to be created off the coast of the Strip (passing it off as a “humanitarian” operation).
As a hegemon, the US are involved in all scenarios simultaneously and the costs, both human and financial, of this engagement are becoming increasingly high (in addition to the almost $100 billion already allocated for Ukraine, the costs incurred for the Gaza crisis are rapidly approaching $2 billion).
However, it is not this aspect that seems to worry Washington the most, but rather the loss of global prestige that the US is suffering: the unconditional support and supply of weapons to Israel is undermining its presumed position of third party status in the Middle East, the reprobation for the high number of civilian deaths is creating problems both abroad and at home, with a large portion of American citizens, especially young people according to research carried out by Harvard University, who do not find the massacre taking place in Gaza acceptable. Even within the American Establishment, the war in Gaza is creating strong divisions, with one side, the so-called Neo-Cons, determined to support Tel Aviv “without ifs and buts” and another, well aware that this crisis is leading to a loss of American influence both in the Middle East and in the rest of the world.
Russia and China stand watching at the window, with the latter even seen by the US as a possible actor that could help defuse the crisis, at least in the Yemeni area (note: China's only foreign base is in Djibouti, which is on the diametrically opposite shore of the Bab Al-Mandab strait from Yemen). The Houthis have made it clear that no Russian or Chinese ships will be attacked, and the current situation is creating growing economic problems for all European nations, playing into the hands of Moscow, which is relaunching its proposals for alternative routes between Asia and Europe, such as the Arctic route (see in-depth study here [in Italian!]).
Ultimately, the ball keeps on running and hitting everything it encounters, driving up the pinball 'score' in terms of human lives, economic costs, realignment of international arrangements, and probably also in terms of electoral outcomes this 2024 when 50 nations will go to the polls to renew their governments (and non-governments, as in the case of the EU).
Every pinball player knows that shaking it can lead to a higher score, but they are also aware that it only takes a small unconscious movement to cause the Tilt that will end the game. The popular bar game was invented by Americans in 1947 and they certainly know how it works, as well as the rules.
The world, gathered around them, as young people in '70s bars did around the neighbourhood champion, watches in eager anticipation, not knowing whether to hope that the score will rise to a record or the lethal blow that ends the game will occur.
Surely in Palestine they hope that at some point the electricity will fail and the game will end, even without a winner, but with the possibility that the game will break down for good and no longer function, so that it will be relegated to a 'modern-day' object to be spoken of only as a distant memory.
by Fabrizio Bertolami for Comedonchisciotte.org
26.01.2024
References:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/middleeast/beirut-lebanon-hamas-official-killed-intl/index.html
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/artificial-island-plan-israel-katz_n_65af9e75e4b0d65b024def80
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/23/deadliest-day-for-israeli-forces-gaza-war
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/26/1226977365/israel-idf-gaza-middle-east-deaths