Updates on the situation in Donbass and Kursk

Plus a few interesting comments and Q&As + Dmitry Medvedev's commentary.

Vittorio Rangeloni.

What follows is my English translation of the latest Telegram post by Vittorio Rangeloni, Italian Journalist reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian war from Donbass since 2015:

Updates on the situation in Donbass and Kursk

- The Kiev offensive in the Kursk region continues, despite the high price in terms of men and resources. The Russian army has failed to repel the massive Ukrainian attack and is struggling to stabilise the situation near Korenevo, while the fate of Sudzha remains uncertain. Among the main causes of the Russian failure are the inadequate defence lines built in the region. These can become a limitation for Ukrainian ambitions: without solid positions on which to support, it can become risky to advance and manage logistical aspects. Despite the many news items published on the Internet, it is difficult to draw a complete and objective picture, the situation is constantly evolving. As predicted on the first day, Kiev seems to be aiming for the Kurchatovo nuclear power plant. The Sudzha gas pipeline station, through which gas flows to Europe, has come under Ukrainian control but still seems to be operational. This instability has led to an increase in gas prices. [See here for instance.]

- Podolyak, Zelensky's advisor, said that this offensive is intended to strengthen Ukraine's position and frighten Russian citizens, hoping to sway Russian support for Putin. The EU has given its blessing to this invasion of Russia, while perplexity has filtered in from the US.

- While all attention is focused on Kursk, in the Donbass the Russian army continues to advance significantly from the Avdeevka sector towards Pokrovsk. There are also Russian advances on the Ugledar and Seversk fronts. The pincer grip on the Ukrainian positions west of Gorlovka, in the heart of New York and on the edge of Toretsk continues.

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In a comment in my previous post, Karl Sanchez, whom I follow regularly here on Substack, asked the following question:

If Russian ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] did have the concentration of forces under observation as alluded to by several, why was such a deep thrust so successful? Was Putin really irate as some presume, or is it just a baseless presumption?

Here is my reply:

Have we seen Putin irate on publicly available photos/videos? If not, it is probably just the imagination of some people.

Regarding your first question, my idea is that the Russians knew very well in advance about the concentration of AFU on the border of Kursk, if even a observers and commentators noted the build-up of AFU in the Ukrainian Sumy region as recently as a week ago, as reported by Simplicius The Thinker in his latest article.

In my humble opinion, Russia just let Ukrainians troops get in, even so deep, to let them think that they were quite successful, so that they would call in even more troops, which then could be trapped in a cauldron and finally pounded heavily to death.

After all, let's not forget it, the SMO is not much about the conquest of Ukraine, but rather the de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Let's not forget Sun Tzu's rules too:

1) Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,

2) Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.

Another person in a comment to Simplicius’s latest article reported about a video (no link provided) “with ukrop prisonner [sic] saying the only purpose is nothing else that 'taking video', no pipeline, no NPP...of course because a SAS uk [sic] operation in retaliation for the 58 SAS killed in Kiev and Odessa recently. Lot of english [sic] spoken in the intercepted conversations today.”

To be honest I struggle to believe that Ukraine launched such an operation just as a “PR stunt”, as I replied to him, though Gilbert Doctorow seems to believe to the “PR operation” hypothesis. What surprises me is that The Guardian has not yet resurrected its Ukraine war live, as they call it, though in my opinion it would be more appropriate to call it “Ukraine war dead”, since they do not update it daily anymore (every fortnight, if we are “lucky”, or whenever they can spin the news in favour of Ukraine).

Jokes aside, either the AFU did not have MI6's blessing in this operation or the MI6 and its PR office, i.e. The Guardian, realized that it was going so bad that it would be better not to publicize it!

What do you think? Please let me know in the Comments section.

Dmitry Medvedev.

I will leave you with the English translation of the latest post of Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, on his Telegram channel [my emphasis in bold, italics as in the original]:

The reasons and goals of the terrorist

The reasons for and aims of the terrorist operation by the Ukronazis in the Kursk region have already been reflected in detail and objectively in the analyses. They include a desire to show the remnants of their dwindling forces to their masters in order to receive a new portion of money and weapons, and an attempt to thin out our fighting orders on the main line of confrontation by pulling back some of our forces to Kursk and Belgorod, as well as a temporary informational transformation of disaster into a victory.

It is necessary to draw a serious lesson from what has happened and to fulfil what the Chief of Staff V. Gerasimov promised the Supreme Commander-in-Chief [i.e. Vladimir Putin] - to mercilessly defeat and destroy the enemy.

There is another important political and legal consequence of what happened. From this moment on, the SMO [Special Military Operation] must acquire an openly extraterritorial character. It is no longer just an operation to retake our official territories and punish the Nazis. It is possible and necessary to go to the lands of the still existing Ukraine. To Odessa, to Kharkov, to Dnepropetrovsk, to Nikolaev. To Kiev and beyond. There should be no restrictions in the sense of some recognised borders of the Ukrainian Reich. And now it is possible and necessary to speak about it openly, without shyness and diplomatic curtsies. The terrorist operation of the Banderites should remove any taboos from this topic. Let everyone, including the English bastards, realise this: we will stop only when we find it acceptable and profitable for us.

Bright memory to the dead: military and civilian, all those who came under the barrage of neo-Nazi fire. The best memory of them is carefully considered retribution. Condolences to all the wounded.

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