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What follows is my English translation of an article by Il Brigante (meaning The Bandit), originally in Italian, published on ComeDonChisciotte.org yesterday, Sunday 15th December 2024, i.e. before the statement released by Bashar Al-Assad today (see for instance this Al Mayadeen article), so please keep this in mind, though it does not make much difference, in my opinion. (All emphasis mine).
FOREWORD
In 2011, within the framework of the so-called “Arab springs”, financed and organised by the Anglo-American and Israeli services, with the use of media, agitators, infiltrators and the Soros galaxy NGOs [Non-Governmental Organizations] headed by Open Society, the first anti-Assad demonstrations and uprisings broke out in Syria.
In a short time, the so-called uprisings were filled with armed elements and within a few months, the so-called Syrian “civil war” broke out.
In reality, the armed gangs that invaded Syria, almost bringing the Assad government to collapse, were mostly mercenaries of various nationalities,belonging to the terrorist groups of Al Nusra (a descendant branch of Al Qaeda) and ISIS, financed by the governments of the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar and trained by the Israeli, British and American services.
Kurdish militias, financed and armed by the US, also entered the war against Assad.
Russia, Iran and Hezbollah later entered the conflict, and their intervention in defence of the legitimate Syrian government (at Assad's specific request) saved the fate of the Syrian state.
The decisive intervention of the Russian armed forces against ISIS in particular led to the final defeat of the Islamic State, whose militants retreated to the province of Idlib, merging with Al Nusra and HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham].
The Astana Accords of 2017 between Iran, Russia and Turkey, as “guarantors” of the situation, led to the cessation of the main fighting (it continued for a couple of more years, especially in Kurdish-controlled areas).
The truce (because this was in fact what it was) was promoted as a victory for the Syria/Iran/Russia axis by Russian and Iranian propaganda and thus also perceived by most of the alternative information here in Italy; if this is partly true, because the attack was repelled and most of the country was kept under government control, on the other hand when there is a winning side in a conflict, it sets the conditions of surrender to the defeated and comes out stronger than at the beginning of the conflict itself, certainly not weaker.
This was not the case after the 2017 agreements: many ISIS and Al Nusra militants were literally escorted unharmed to Idlib province, where they settled under Turkish supervision; Kurdish militias retained control of large areas in the North East of the country; the US military settled in the Syrian oil well region, without its presence being questioned and plundering Syrian oil to this day: not exactly what I would call a victory on all fronts...
THE PROPAGANDA WAR
Particularly interesting in this quick summary of the events of 2011/2018 is the observation of how influential propaganda, information and media manipulation was.
The actions of invading and bombing a sovereign and peaceful country, like the training of terrorists, were made to be digested by the Western public as a war for democracy against a bloodthirsty dictator (not very different from the propaganda used against Saddam Hussein first and Gaddafi later); I cite a couple of examples, knowing that this was a daily work that lasted for years:
In 2015, the day after Operation Bataclan, the French government sent a bombing mission on Damascus, the Syrian capital, as a reaction to the alleged terrorist action of ISIS. The full cognitive dissonance of the Western public, as well as the acquiescence and complicity of NATO journalists and the Jewish-controlled Western media, failed to see the contradiction of bombing a country whose government was under siege by the very terrorists who claimed responsibility for the attacks: the emotional wave tended to justify any reaction, even a criminal one.
At the same time, news came out publicly that 20 ISIL (the acronym of the so-called Syrian “opposition”) guerrillas, trained by the Italian armed forces, had escaped control and joined ISIS. No one had anything to say about the Italian government indirectly participating in the war in Syria and training terrorists.
Today, we see the same cognitive dissonance and blatant contradictions in NATO propaganda, with an Al Nusra terrorist leader such as Al Julani, Syria's new alleged leader suddenly becoming a “moderate” (which is in line with the various alleged Islamic extremists who become “radicalised” at the same time as they are discovered to be alcoholics and drug addicts); he is even interviewed by CNN with the journalist wearing the hijab (an honour that was denied to former Iranian premier Raisi) at the same time that Al Julani himself is still officially wanted for terrorism by the FBI, with a $10 million bounty.
At the time of the first Syrian “civil” war, NATO propaganda overflowed with propaganda gimmicks, theatrical performances, fabrications and fake news that complemented the military war.
We can recall in this regard, purely by way of example, the fake news about Assad's alleged use of chemical weapons against his own population; or the staging of the “White Helmets”, an organisation created by the British services and supported by the Sosian NGOs, who constructed scripts, photos and videos, aimed at demonstrating the “atrocities” of the Assad regime; or the mythologizing of the heroic Kurdish women fighters (supported by the Americans), when today Ankara-backed cut-throats kidnap Kurdish women into slavery in the absolute silence of the NATO media.
In this propaganda war on all sides of the conflict, as we shall see, it is very difficult to see what the actual truth is.
GEOPOLITICS IN THE SYRIAN AREA
What were the real causes of the war unleashed by the USA, Israel, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia against Syria, through the financing, training and organisation of mercenaries aggregated in terrorist formations (Al Qaeda and ISIS)?
The real origins of the Syrian war lie in Assad's refusal to take part in the project (prepared as early as 2002) to build a gigantic gas pipeline that was supposed to start from Qatar and reach Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan.
On the contrary,Assad preferred to join the Iranian project of a gas pipeline from Iran through Syria to the Lebanese coast.
These opposing projects were and still are of strategic geopolitical importance, as they effectively determine which countries could provide a viable alternative to Russian gas for Europe by connecting the Mediterranean to the fields of the Persian Gulf.
It is not just a question of the enormous economic profits potentially generated by these pipelines, but of their geopolitical importance, as it would exponentially increase the strategic importance for Europe of the countries through which the pipelines would pass (even today, Qatari gas reaches Europe by liquefied ship, at a cost for the end user of about three times as much).
So not only did Assad's choices greatly damage the projects of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but Israel certainly could not allow Iran and Lebanon to find huge economic resources, as well as strategic importance, by connecting to Europe and becoming an important source of energy for us Europeans.
Russia, on the other hand, since the Iranian/Syrian/Lebanese gas pipeline was difficult and unlikely to be realised, had every interest in countering strong potential competition from Qatari gas (we are talking about the period 2011/2015).
THE INVASION OF SYRIA AND THE END OF THE ASSAD ERA
What has happened in recent days?
After the truce of the Astana accords, the war has flared up again, leading to the rapid dissolution of the Assad government and the conquest of Syria by Turkish mercenaries.
A very brief history of recent events is useful:
27/11/2024: Simultaneous with the announcement of the ceasefire in Lebanon (what a coincidence...) from the province of Idlib troops of the HTS (the new version of Al Nusra, heir of Al Qaeda) and the SNA [Syrian National Army] (the pro-Turkish militiamen, openly supported and organised by the Turkish army), move towards the province of Aleppo, advancing very quickly. The SAA (Syrian Arab Army) [allegedly loyal to Assad and the official Syrian government] quickly retreated towards Aleppo. Within a day, rebel forces arrived less than 9 km from Aleppo and managed to occupy a section of the M5 highway, which connects Aleppo to Damascus. Government media deny that HTS militiamen have taken the settlements between Idlib and Aleppo and warn against believing enemy propaganda.
28/11/2024: The M5 highway is officially cut off, preventing supplies to Syrian army units deployed in Aleppo. Official army sources speak of a deliberate interruption to preserve civilian lives. HTS troops continue to take settlements around Aleppo, in a few villages there is fighting, in most the Syrian army retreats. The Israeli army bombs the Syrian border with Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah movement into Syria.
29/11/2024: HTS and SNA continue their advance, joined by smaller groups along the way, entering and invading western Aleppo and other parts of the city, with sporadic fighting and the Syrian army retreating. Official Syrian government media claim that the army is positioned to defend Aleppo and will not give in, urging people not to believe the terrorists' propaganda. Great confusion among international analysts, the Russian inaction is criticised by many (even internally).
30/11/2024: In the context of a general expansion of the conquests of the pro-Turkish mercenaries and the parallel advance of the Kurdish militias (in turn attacked by the SNA), the HTS occupies Aleppo entirely, even conquering the citadel (Aleppo's historical centre, located on a hill and until now considered “impregnable”), without firing a shot, thanks to the withdrawal of the SAA. By evening, the invading militias arrive at the gates of Hama, the next city in the direction of Damascus. The Russian air force starts bombing operations on the pro-war militants on the outskirts of Aleppo. At the same time as there is news of the withdrawal of government troops from Hama, official Syrian sources warn against believing propaganda and declare that Hama will not fall. Turkish channels speak of the occupation of the northern part of Hama, when Middle Eastern and Syrian channels show the entry of SAA troops into southern Hama and the preparation of the defence. The fighting mostly consists of drone actions on the part of HTS, for which they were trained by agents of the Ukrainian services. The resistance front in the Middle East gains hope that the counter-offensive can develop from Hama. With the exception of the pro-drone channels, no one thinks that HTS can advance further without reaction.
01/12/2024: The SNA extends its control over Kurdish areas by conquering Tell Rifaat. It appears that the SAA counteroffensive has begun, the Syrian authorities announce the recapture of several villages; these reports convince Russian and Iranian channels, but are denied by Turkish ones, which emphasise the retreat of the Kurds of the YPG, supported by the US army.
02/12/2024: Iranian General Javad, Soleimani's former right-hand man, arrives in Syria, raising hopes of the axis of resistance. At the same time, US troops bombard the Syrian-Iraqi border to prevent the passage of reinforcements from Iraq.
03/12/2024: Fighting begins in northern Hama, mainly with drone attacks by HTS.
04/12/2024 Battles continue around Hama, the Syrian government loses control of Deir Ez zor, where Kurdish forces advance, attacked in turn by the SAA.
05/12/2024: The SAA abandons the city and Hama falls into the hands of HTS terrorists. Official statement from the Syrian army: it is decided to withdraw troops to preserve civilian lives and move the fighting out of the city. News comes out that Iran has offered to send 2 combat-ready brigades to defend Syria, but Assad (who, unlike in the first Syrian war, has never asked the allies for help) refuses, on the pretext that he does not want to give Israel a pretext for invading Syria (which will happen regularly a few days later, when the Assad government falls).
06/12/2024: The focus shifts to Homs, the last stronghold before Damascus: as HTS heads for the city, official Syrian sources guarantee that the army is deployed and ready to defend Homs, which will not fall. Indeed, there are elite units deployed and ready for defence, but these, it will soon be discovered, were given orders to demobilise at the same time as the official SAA statements. ISIL (Syrian ISIS) forces advance from the south towards Damascus.
07/12/2024: SAA withdraws from Homs, the army's chain of command is broken and each battalion makes its own decisions. Damascus is defenceless. News emerges of a government plane from Damascus to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
08/12/2024: HTS enters Damascus, the legitimate Syrian government accepts the handover. Assad is no longer in the capital, news comes out that a government plane supposedly carrying Assad is lost track of at low altitude, reportedly crashed.
This brief chronicle is intended not only to give an overview of the events, but also to emphasise how the information war was constantly present and important.
While Middle Eastern channels linked to the axis of resistance were constantly misled by the misinformation of official Syrian channels (who lied from beginning to end) and Russian channels, despite their greater lucidity, did not seem to understand exactly what was going on; the channels linked to the Turkish government were constantly and perfectly informed, demonstrating that they had first-hand correct information about the field and also about the HTS and SNA war programme.
CONCLUSIONS
There is no doubt that today's events are a continuation of the 2011 war, but with significant and substantial differences.
In fact, the legacy terrorist militias of Al Nusra and Isis have recycled themselves into HTS and SNA, supported, financed and organised by Turkey, the US and Israel, while the militias of the US-backed Kurdish YPG have waged a parallel war against Assad.
At the moment it seems that, in contrast to 2011, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates have kept a neutral profile.
This, in my opinion, is not only due to profound geopolitical novelties compared to 2011 (the rise of the BRICS in the region, the re-entry of Syria into the Arab Community, the growing weight of China in Africa and the Middle East), but also to an even more markedly geopolitical characterisation of the objectives of this war, as opposed to the purely economic aspects.
While at the moment I do not see the realisation of the old Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline project as straightforward, the hegemonic and territorial expansion aims of Turkey and Israel are quite evident: if on the one hand they want to close the game with the Kurdish guerrillas and their claims, as well as the expansion of Turkish influence in the region, on the other hand they are dealing another almost fatal blow to the axis of resistance, allowing the completion of ethnic cleansing and the annexation of Palestinian and Syrian territories.
Greater Israel's projects and Ottoman imperial aspirations seem parallel and non-conflicting at the moment; Erdogan's Turkey is unscrupulously playing on several tables, while the US is subservient to Israeli interests, because Israeli influence in the Middle East is crucial to the interests of the British Empire (in a modern version with American traction).
But there are two fundamental aspects that raise questions that are currently unresolved:
Never in history has a lightning invasion by mercenary armies led to the capitulation of a state so quickly as in Syria. There could be a parallel with the invasion of the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies by Garibaldi's expedition, because of the rapidity of the collapse and the inexplicability of the Bourbon defeats, given the indisputable numerical superiority of the Bourbon army (even if serious historical analyses estimate the band of mercenaries and bandits led by Garibaldi at well over a thousand, who could never have landed without the support of the British fleet off the Sicilian coast); but in that case the explanation of the long preparation of the British aristocracy in Sicily, with the systematic bribery of the Bourbon officers, plus the involvement of the Mafia in support, seems to me quite pertinent. Let us also not forget that unlike the Bourbon army, the SAA, which was 200,000 strong (against an estimated maximum number of 50,000 of the total of all mercenary forces), surrendered from start to finish practically without a fight, with Damascus left at the end without any defence, whereas the Bourbon army did not dissolve like the Syrian army and was the protagonist, with King Ferdinand II, of a heroic defence of Naples, until its capitulation.
Nor is it conceivable that the top leadership of the Syrian [Arab] army could have been corrupted without government complicity, either because of the systematic surrender on all fronts from the very beginning, regardless of divisions and commands, or because of the conclusion, i.e. the line of command blown up after Homs and the total autonomy of the fleeing battalions (apart from the elite desert tiger unit, sheltered on the coast and in the mountains under Russian protection), incompatible with the alleged corruption of individual commanders, which would have provoked some reaction in any case, and finally because of the media coverage of government sources and the continuous fake news and justifications, with the channel of the Presidency of the Republic still claiming on 07/12/2024 that Bashar Al Assad who had already fled was in charge in Damascus.
Assad's mysterious end: the news followed one another in contradictory fashion, from the flight to the Emirates to the crashed plane to the declaration of political asylum in Russia. The strangeness of this flight is another unique case: never before has there been a concise declaration of “granting political asylum to the Assad family on humanitarian grounds” by the Russian press agency, without a photo, an interview, or a statement by Assad or his family in Russia, in addition to total silence on the matter from Putin and Russian government ministers.
Assad has simply disappeared, the Russian news agency states that he is in Russia, full stop.
At this point we have to formulate hypotheses, based on the analysis of the facts known to us and on logic. To this end I add two elements that are as strange and difficult to explain as they are interesting:
For several years, Russia was supposed to have supplied and made operational the S400 defence system (the most advanced air defence system in the world) in Syria, but despite repeated announcements to this effect, this installation never took place, so much so that Israel was able to periodically bomb Syria during the Assad period without any defence or reaction, even when the bombardments were made near Russian bases.
The other strange thing concerns the communication of the Syrian presidency: for over a year, faced with events in front of which no state in the world would remain silent, the official channel of the Syrian Republic seemed to be on another planet: on the same day or following an Israeli bombing on Syrian territory or even on the capital Damascus, it published the inauguration of a school by a minister, Assad's internal appointments or reports of a ministerial or international meeting, without a single word about Israel's actions.
At this point, let us try to think of explanations, knowing that only logic could come to our aid.
The first hypothesis is that Assad was bribed and bought (perhaps after serious threats); the hypothesis is not so peregrine, because the CIA, Mossad and MI6 are specialists in “putting a gun to the head” of inconvenient presidents, their modus operandi in such cases is quite well known, and Assad might have preferred tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, rather than a bullet for him and his family. It would certainly not be the first time that such things have happened in similar contexts.
This would explain Russia's lack of confidence in Assad and likewise all Assad's subsequent behaviour. In this case, Assad could actually be in the Emirates and Russia, which has lost out in the events like Iran, could have declared the granting of political asylum to disguise a resounding failure and reassure its allies of its loyalty, just as Assad could simply have been eliminated, without disclosing the news, for the same reasons.
The second hypothesis instead stems from the fact that indeed Assad and his family are in Russia after such a blatant betrayal of his people.
In this case, the Russian government may have made the arrangements:
In fact, the preparations for the invasion of Syria were known to all the services involved in the area (the leadership of the Iranian IRGC, the special forces under the Ayatollah's employ, declared that they had warned Assad of the preparations 3 months ago, reiterating his rejection of an Iranian intervention) and any agreements were obviously prior to the start of operations; in this case the only sure loser is Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, who have lost the only supply route to Lebanon, as well as a friendly outlet on the Mediterranean.
We have already analysed the obvious conveniences of Turkey, Israel and the USA; we must now hypothesise what the Russian conveniences might be, excluding the fact that the change of puppet in Washington plays any role in this game (which is obvious to any serious scholar, less so to the deluded ones waiting for the saviour on duty, the Q-Anon model, the Trump propagandists who have come back into fashion even in Italy...).
First of all, one must remember not only Putin's enduring personal relationship with Netanyahu, but [also] the historical importance of the relationship between Russia and Israel; even today, Jews of Russian origin play an important role in Israel, as does the Jewish financial lobby in Russia.
The double-dealing Erdogan, likewise, has solid relations with Putin and still owes him gratitude for the foiled Gulen coup.
Let us imagine then that Putin has received guarantees or bargaining chips regarding the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline project (which would in any case be less strategic for Russia today, as Russian gas export volumes to Europe are enormously reduced compared to 2015); that he has been given guarantees regarding the presence and safety of the naval and air bases in Syria; that the renewed and close Russian relations with Saudi Arabia and especially the Emirates make those with Syria less fundamental.
UAE, Ethiopia, Iran and Egypt are already part of the BRICS, the path of accession of Turkey and Saudi Arabia is in progress, I believe that in the short or at most the medium term we will see how this path will end and we will have much more concrete answers to this hypothesis; probably the sacrifice of Syria in this context would be less penalising for Russia than in 2015 and certainly less costly than a renewed war commitment far from the country, at the same time as the Ukrainian conflict: it would not have been at all painless for the Russian government to engage in a second front today.
Another fundamental element is the geopolitical relations with Turkey: apart from the Syrian bases, the most important landing point in the Mediterranean for the Russian navy passes through the Strait of the Dardanelles (the passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean): a closure to military traffic by Turkey would lead to an inevitable clash, with a view to a wider world conflict (something that has already happened in past centuries); it remains a fundamental junction for Russia, far more important than a presence in Syria.
With regard to this hypothesis, Erdogan's statement in an interview two days after the fall of Assad seemed decidedly sibylline: “Putin and I are the only two experienced leaders left in the world” (obviously he did not mention the third, evident and implied, Netanyahu, whom he publicly accuses of being the new Hitler, except that he continues to provide him with the passage for the weapons with which he massacres the Palestinian people).
The last element is the consequences on the Ukrainian conflict: one only has to follow Russian channels to see that the generalised conclusions are that a truce that leaves the threat unchanged will no longer be acceptable (the parallel is drawn with the Syrian truce and the presence of terrorist armies in the province of Idlib), so the objectives of the special military operation will have to be achieved.
Needless to say, in the latter hypothesis, the figure of Bashar Al Assad would be that of a weak man, the dumb son of an important generation to whom the toy of the presidency was left while the strings were being pulled at another and much higher level: in short, an ordinary [Matteo] Salvini [Italian careerist politician, leader of Lega Nord and Deputy Prime Minister of Italy]...
Today, Turkey, through the SNA, controls much of the Syrian territory in the north and continues the conflict with the Kurdish PKK and YPG formations to the east, with the direct intervention of the Turkish National Army.
The Americans maintain a presence in the oil well region and the daylight theft of Syrian oil continues.
The Russians have obtained guarantees on the maintenance and security of their 2 bases on the coast.
Iran is the big loser and in addition to no longer having any presence in Syria, it has lost its connection and supply channel to Lebanon. Episodes of devastation and looting of Shiite mosques, despite the reassurances of the new Syrian government, are the order of the day.
Episodes of hangings in the public square, as well as summary executions, are repeated by the terrorist groups in power, who have also opened prisons freeing hundreds of terrorists; their propaganda is rampant in the West and is indulged even in the craziest claims (such as the presence of 200,000 political prisoners in Damascus prisons).
Israel, having invaded most of Syria on its borders, has already carried out some 450 bombing raids on Syrian territory and is about 20 km from Damascus.
The coming months or years will probably clarify for us what really happened in Syria.
SOURCES
It is difficult to list the dozens of Telegram channels and websites that I have followed to learn more about the events in Syria, I will just mention the main sources via Telegram divided by country, which have chronicled the latest events.
Borzzikman thinks Putin contacted Netanyhu and asked him to blow up all the military equipment in Syria so it doesn't go to the Ukraine. I completely doubt your first hyposthesis and I don't beleive the Resistance is dead And Iran is going to figure it out. there are other ways to get equipment to Hezbollah. I love the new leader of Hezbollah. I loved his talk from Times of India synopsis - https://youtu.be/1PS3NKXqCqk
Borzzikman thinks Putin contacted Netanyhu and asked him to blow up all the military equipment in Syria so it doesn't go to the Ukraine. I completely doubt your first hyposthesis and I don't beleive the Resistance is dead And Iran is going to figure it out. there are other ways to get equipment to Hezbollah. I love the new leader of Hezbollah. I loved his talk from Times of India synopsis - https://youtu.be/1PS3NKXqCqk