Why USrael-Iran war is inevitable
Plus news and updates from Lebanon... and Europe.
Before responding to the question in the title, let’s start from where we left in my previous update.
Last Friday, 6th February 2026, Muscat (Oman) hosted the first session of the indirect US-Iran talks with only the nuclear file in the agenda (source: IRNA)1. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi mediated between the Iranian and US delegations. The former included, among others, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, his Deputy for Political Affairs Majid Takht-Ravanchi, his Deputy for Economic Affairs Hamid Ghanbari, and the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, all top diplomats. On the other hand, the US delegation consisted of US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, US President Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law and assistant Jared Kushner (who officially does not hold any role in the US administration!) and… CENTCOM2 commander Admiral Brad Cooper, whose participation had not been announced in advance (sources: Al Mayadeen and IRNA). Yes, a military officer in the US delegation - certainly not a good sign! In fact, according to Middle East Spectator, citing Omani media, and former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson, Araghchi did not let him into the negotiations room for over 20 minutes and, when Oman’s Foreign Minister Al-Busaidi let him in, Araghchi refused to shake his hand. What is funny in this story is that on the same day Tehran Times published an interview with John Helmer who stated that Iran should negotiate with US military officials… LOL!
An account of what transpired from the negotiations, which went on for several hours in multiple rounds, can be found on Mehr. Half-way through the talks, the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that “the consultations focussed on facilitating appropriate conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations”, as per Mehr and IRNA.
At the end of the talks, Araghchi spoke to the press saying (sources: Al Mayadeen, Al Masirah, IRNA and Mehr):
I think there was a good atmosphere and in one sentence I can say that it was a good start.
The topic of our dialogue [with Washington] is only the nuclear issue, we are not negotiating with the United States on any other topics.
Of course, negotiations on nuclear issues and the resolution of key issues should take place in a calm atmosphere, without tension and threats. Any dialogue presupposes that it is necessary to refrain from threats and pressure. We have made that clear today.
Our concerns were conveyed, and our interests, the rights that the Iranian people have, and all the things that needed to be said were conveyed in a very good atmosphere.
The views of the other side were also heard.
We must first overcome this prevailing atmosphere of distrust, and only then can we design a framework for a new dialogue, one that can… secure the interests of the Iranian people.
It was agreed to continue the talks, but the time, place and manner will be decided in the capitals [and] during future consultations with my Omani counterpart.
It seems that a consensus exists.
I don't want to be quick to judge, but if the talks continue in this manner, an agreed framework can be reached.
Araghchi expressed optimism, but, as even Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei has said multiple times, you cannot trust Americans, given past experience! In fact, soon after the end of the negotiations, the US State Department announced a new batch of sanctions targeting tankers, companies and individuals supporting Iran’s oil industry, as reported by Middle East Spectator and The Maritime Executive, thus demonstrating once again that the Outlaw US Empire3 is negotiating with Iran in bad faith.
As if the above was not enough, on the same day Trump signed an Executive Order “establishing a process to impose tariffs on countries that acquire any goods or services from Iran”, as per WhiteHouse.gov (see also Al Mayadeen and Al Masirah). Trump was also quoted by Al Mayadeen and Mehr as saying (all emphasis mine):
We likewise, had very good talks on Iran. Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly. We have to see what that deal is. But I think Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly.
We have a big armada, and we have a big fleet heading in that direction, gonna be there pretty soon. So we’ll see how that works out.
We’re going to meet again early next week, and they want to make a deal, Iran, as they should want to make a deal. They know the consequences if they don’t. They don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.
…while yesterday (Saturday 7th February 2026) Admiral Brad Cooper, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff visited the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, as reported by Al Mayadeen, citing the following tweet of the US Special Envoy, who even boasted of talking to the pilot who had downed an Iranian drone a few days ago (so much for a diplomatic mission!):
Araghchi responded to this provocation by visiting a warship of the Iranian Navy:
…while the Outlaw US Empire continues deploying military assets all around Iran:
Yet, there are analysts like John Helmer (see the aforementioned interview, this article published on Sunday 1st February 2026 and this other article published the day after) according to whom Trump is retreating, based on the equation M +V+ B = P, where:
M = Money, V= Votes, B = Bullets, P = Power (if you cannot figure that out, read John Helmer’s articles).
The problem is that you cannot apply logic to Trump and his foreign policy. They do not go together. Trump’s administration does not behave rationally, as we have learnt by experience.
As aforementioned, there are many indicators that Trump is negotiating in bad faith and in his own term:
first of all, Iranian nuclear program is peaceful in nature and there is a fatwa4 against nuclear weapons, so the current topic of negotiation is just a flimsy excuse, though Iran is open to reduce uranium enrichment (but not to zero!) to demonstrate its good will,
the presence of US Navy off the coast of Iran, which is like negotiating with a gun pointed to the other party’s head (similar to what happened with Venezuela),
the ongoing build-up of other military assets in the region (not just American, but now also British, e.g. the deployment of six F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets from RAF5 Marham in eastern England to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, as per SouthFront.press),
the low level of the US negotiating team and the inclusion of a military officer,
the imposition of new direct and indirect sanctions,
Jared Kushner’s and Steve Witkoff’s visit onboard the USS Abraham Lincoln.
In practice, these US-Iran talks are very similar to the US-Russia talks: just a kabuki theatre, with the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassal States continuing fighting Russia through their Ukrainian proxies and with acts of piracy, without showing any good will, e.g. by restoring direct flights between the two countries, reopening Russian embassies on US soil or returning the Russian crew recently captured onboard of a seized shadow tanker! Both Russia and Iran can clearly see the US hypocrisy and are just playing along, pretending to negotiate in good faith, while Russia carries out its slow meatgrinder in Ukraine and pounds the latter’s power plants with drone and missile strikes, and Iran waits for the USraeli attack and, at the same time, prepares a massive retaliation.
There are a few more things to take into account: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Epstein files. The former requested to move his meeting with Trump at the White House to next Wednesday, 11th February 2026, instead of the originally planned date the week after, as reported yesterday by Al Mayadeen, citing Israeli Channel 12. Of course, you can easily imagine what the agenda of the meeting is: war with Iran. Netanyahu will try and convince Trump by hook or by crook that he needs to request Iran to give up on its ballistic missile program and its support to the factions of the Axis of Resistance (Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, etc.) or face war. If he cannot convince Trump tactfully, he will resort to threats and, more specifically, to release even more damning material against Trump and other US government officials from the Epstein6 files. Listen carefully to what former Israeli intelligence officer Ari Ben-Menashe recently said to Afshin Rattansi on “Going Underground”:
In my opinion, if there’s a real deal between the Americans and the Iranians and it’s going towards that, Netanyahu will try to sabotage it.
One of the ways he’d sabotage it is by putting out Epstein’s material against US government officials, including Trump… and he’d put it out there.
New material that wasn’t seen before… in public.
[…]
Not just Trump, other officials too.
So, now you know the answer to my question in the title of the article (why war between USrael and Iran is inevitable).
Returning to Araghchi, speaking to Al Jazeera Arabic on the sidelines of the 17th edition of the Al Jazeera Forum in Doha (Qatar) yesterday, probably after hearing about US sanctions and pre-empting future US demands, he clarified a couple of points and touched upon other topics, such as the the Palestinian problem (sources: IRNA, Mehr and Al Masirah (1, 2 and 3) - all emphasis added):
The issue of banning enrichment is not negotiable from Iran’s point of view.
Enrichment is our definite right and must continue.
They were not able to eliminate Iran’s capabilities in this field even through bombing.
The missile issue is a purely defensive matter for us and cannot be negotiated, neither now nor in the future, because it is a defensive matter
If the US strikes Iran, we will not attack neighboring countries; rather, we will target US bases stationed in them. There is a big difference between the two.
Let no one miscalculate: a region cannot be kept stable by allowing one actor to act above the law [referring to USrael]. The doctrine of impunity will not produce peace; it will produce wider conflict.
What we are witnessing in Gaza is not merely war. It is not a “conflict” between equal parties; it is the deliberate destruction of civilian life on a massive scale. It is genocide.
This is not merely a Palestinian problem. It is a global problem.
If the world wants peace, it must stop rewarding aggression. Palestine is not merely a cause for solidarity; it is the indispensable cornerstone of regional security.
Araghchi returned on the topic also this morning (Sunday 8th February 2026), at the first National Congress on Foreign Policy and the History of Foreign Relations in Tehran and at a press conference on its sidelines, as reported by IRNA (1, 2 and 3), Mehr (1 and 2) and Al Mayadeen (all emphasis mine):
Iran does not accept any dictates, and there is no solution except through negotiations.
Some people think attacking Iran will force it to surrender; this cannot happen.
No one has the right to tell us what we can or cannot have. Enrichment is our right, and it must continue. Even attacks on our facilities have failed to destroy our capabilities.
Diplomacy is the only way forward, but it succeeds only when it acknowledges our rights. We do not seek permission from anyone; these rights are inherent and must be respected.
Our nuclear bomb is the power of saying no to the great powers.
We have achieved this right at great expense. If we give it up, we will have to pay an even higher price.
The military posturing of our adversaries in the region does not intimidate us. We believe in diplomacy and logic, but we are also prepared for war. We have power.
This situation, in fact, represents a return to the “law of the jungle”, where the stronger impose their will on others.
Therefore, there is no choice but to become strong. If you are weak, you will be crushed. This is the first principle of the law of the jungle and the same principle behind “peace through force”. If you lack power, the peace they want will be imposed on you.
For this reason, becoming stronger is an obligation for us, and one of the keys to gaining strength is the power of resistance that is, the ability to stand firm against pressure.
If they speak to the Iranian people in the language of force, we will respond in the same language. If they speak with respect, we will respond with respect.
Iran is capable of diplomacy and capable of war, even if it does not want it. If they choose the path of diplomacy, we are ready for it.
Enrichment is and will be for peaceful purposes. We have no problem building trust. But we would not accept zero [uranium] enrichment.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has drawn important lessons from both the previous war and the negotiations, and we are now negotiating with our eyes open, fully conscious of everything that has taken place.
This round [of talks] was largely a test of how much the other side could be trusted. The other side claimed that they, too, were assessing the level of seriousness.
[On direct contact between US and Iranian delegation] It was limited to a handshake and basic formalities. Yes, similar instances had occurred in the past as well. In all previous rounds, the negotiations were conducted indirectly; only when the delegations were entering or leaving would we come face to face.
I have said many times that the format of negotiations is not decisive. Indirect negotiations are a common and accepted practice in international relations and do not constitute an obstacle to reaching an agreement. What paves the way to an agreement is avoiding excessive demands and moving toward a respectful understanding based on mutual interests.
The talks are solely about the nuclear issue and will continue in the same framework.
Enrichment is a scientific achievement reached by our scientists. The blood of our scientists has been shed for it, and we fought a 12-day war over it. It has become a source of national pride and is non-negotiable. We will not relinquish the Iranian people’s right to enrichment.
On the occasion of Air Force Day yesterday, Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, sent a message to Brigadier General Bahman Behmard, the Commander of the Air Force of the Islamic Republic of Iran, echoing Araghchi’s statements on Iran’s readiness to counter any aggression (sources: Al Mayadeen, Al Masirah, IRNA and Mehr - all emphasis added):
The enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran are well aware that any adventure or attempt to impose war against Islamic Iran will not only lead to their absolute and strategic defeat but will also cause the expansion of war and crisis throughout the region.
Today, the Army Air Force is at the highest level of readiness and is fully coordinated with the other armed forces. We are ready to give a decisive, swift, and regretful response to any threat, aggression, or miscalculation by the enemy, and to deliver a firm punch to the mouth of any aggressor.
Iran will never initiate war, but it will not hesitate to defend its national security, vital interests, and territorial integrity.
A message reiterated today during a meeting with senior military commanders (source: Al Mayadeen and Mehr - emphasis mine):
Relying upon the assistance of the Almighty God, Iran’s Army Force will continue its path in defending the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.
While we are fully prepared, we are not really interested in starting a regional war and if any war is ignited by enemies of the country in the region, its consequences will have to be shouldered by warmongers including the US government and criminal Israeli regime.
…whereas this morning Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tweeted the following statement on X, as reported also by IRNA and Mehr:
The Iran-U.S. talks, held through the follow-up efforts of friendly governments in the region, were a step forward. Dialogue has always been our strategy for peaceful resolution. Our logic on the nuclear issue is the explicit rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Iranian nation has always responded to respect with respect, but it does not tolerate the language of force.
Returning briefly to the diplomatic front, it is worth reporting that last Friday Iran’s Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Aziz Nasirzadeh visited Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, and met with its President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. Although officially the topic of the meeting was “the current state of bilateral ties […] as well as prospects for cooperation in the defense sphere”, as per Mehr, in my opinion it is very likely that Nasirzadeh delivered a strong warning to Aliyev against supporting USrael in the upcoming war, considering that is quite unusual for a Defense Minister to meet a President of another country.
On the other hand, yesterday Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with the Russian and Chinese ambassadors to Tehran, Alexey Dedov and Cong Peiwu, respectively, as reported by IRNA and Mehr. Most likely he briefed them on the results of the US-Iran talks the day before.
Meanwhile, the Iran’s General Directorate of Intelligence in East Azerbaijan Province announced last Friday the arrest of 25 individuals linked to armed riots, the identification of hundreds of field operatives involved in unrest and the seizure of “220 unlicensed weapons in the city of Jolfa, along with the arrest of three individuals implicated in these activities”, as per Al Mayadeen, which also reported on the identification of 7 members of the core cell of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization in the city of Tabriz, the arrest of 11 members of a “deviant organization” (sic) and 2 members of a foreign-linked “monarchist” group.
Yesterday the commander of the Holy Najaf IRGC7 Ground Forces in the western province of Kermanshah announced the arrest of 11 members of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), according to by Al Mayadeen and Mehr, the former of which reported also on the killing of Sadegh Ashtari, the leader of an armed group accused of attacking a police facility in Tehran’s Pars district during recent armed riots, in a clash with agents from the Ministry of Intelligence.
In related news, the Turkish intelligence agency (MIT) arrested two individuals, Mehmet Budak Derya and Veysel Kerimoglu, in Istanbul on suspicion of spying for Israeli Mossad and sharing sensitive information, as reported by Al Mayadeen.
News and updates from Lebanon
Moving to Lebanon, a few days ago US Senator Lindsey Graham was there, apparently for a meeting with the Lebanese Chief of Defense, General Rodolphe Haykal. However, the meeting ended quickly after the latter refused to recognize Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, as reported by Al Mayadeen and Lindsey Graham himself in the following tweet on X:
American warmongers need to understand that Resistance factions opposing occupation are not terrorist organizations, at least not on their own soil. The only terrorists are USraeli soldiers illegally present on Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian soil and, as such, they can be subject to armed resistance! If USrael does not want to have its soldiers coming back home within coffins, then it should recall them while they are still alive.
On the other hand, yesterday Hassan Fadlallah, member of the Lebanese Parliament, met with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in southern Bint Jbeil and criticized his government “for its continued inability to assert sovereignty, protect citizens, or provide adequate care”, as per Al Mayadeen:
The State, until now, has not been able to extend its sovereignty, protect its people, or provide them with the necessary care.
The south has not experienced a violation of sovereignty along with the rest of Lebanon, at least since the year 2000, as it has today.
Lebanon today is not in its best condition. There is no security, no safety, no stability as long as the south is bleeding, the Bekaa is being targeted, the land is occupied, prisoners are in jails, houses are destroyed, and villages are void of their people.
When the State was absent, the people excelled at resistance, which liberated and protected them. And when the State is present as protector, caretaker, and supporter of its people’s causes, these same people stand behind it, along with their Resistance, hand in hand, to safeguard national sovereignty.
Occupation is the problem for both the people and the government.
[I urge the government] to accelerate all required steps, especially with countries sponsoring the ceasefire agreement, to stop aggression against our country, liberate the land, and bring back the prisoners.
Today, during a visit to several southern towns, Nawaf Salam pledged to start rebuilding South Lebanon, as reported by Al Mayadeen:
We want the Lebanese army to remain up to its responsibilities in the south.
The State is [in essence] what it provides to the people in terms of protection and security for its citizens.
The Lebanese State will return to the South with all its capabilities and energy.
He was echoed by Ali Hassan Khalil, member of the Development and Liberation parliamentary bloc, who said:
It is not accurate to say that there are only five occupied points in southern Lebanon. Israel is trying to kill life in the frontline villages of the south.
…while MP Elias Jradi stated:
This administration must restore confidence to all southerners and Lebanese.
News and updates from Europe
Finally, we move briefly to Europe where last Friday unionized workers from ports in Italy, Greece, the Basque Country, but also in other Mediterranean countries such as Morocco and Turkey, demonstrated in a “coordinated industrial action taking place in more than 20 ports across the Mediterranean and Europe”, as per Al Mayadeen, in support of Palestinians and against war and the genocide in Gaza. The organizers accused European governments of complicity in the Israeli genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and were quoted as saying (all emphasis added):
Port workers do not work for war.
In actual fact, governments intend to force dock workers to become accomplices in the permanent war policies they're imposing on the general population when there are no enemies around. We say no to that.
Neither dock workers intend to be an accomplice in the Israeli genocide in Gaza by loading arms and components bound for Israel.
The struggle of the Palestinians and that of dock workers are intimately connected.
Governments need dock workers to load their weapons on ships bound for Israel. The boycott of military shipments must include all European ports.
I think they are starting to understand that without us dock workers, they can't go anywhere.
[Dock workers] have the power to shut down ports across Europe to deliver a massive blow to imperialist-backed conflicts.
This is the power of the masses: with coordinated international actions and strikes like this, we can stop the war and threaten the powers that be!
I will conclude this article with the following caricatures by Kamal Sharaf from Saba:
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Please mind that IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency) website became unreachable between yesterday evening (Saturday 7th February 2026) and tonight - it seems to be back online now that I am about to publish this article, though there are still hiccups.
Central Command
See these two posts by Karl Sanchez on why I use his descriptor of the USA:
Formal ruling or interpretation on a point of Islamic law given by a qualified legal scholar in Islamic jurisprudence - Wikipedia
Royal Air Force
Remember: Jeffrey Epstein is NOT a Russian assets, as Western mainstream media (MSM) would like you to believe, but an asset of Mossad and a representative of the most powerful and warmongering family in the whole world (the Rothschild), as he himself admitted in a recently disclosed e-mail that Epstein sent to Peter Thiel on 28th February 2016 (see also this article by Simplicius The Thinker and this other one by Kevin Barrett, the transcript of this PressTV video).
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
I so admire the dockworkers!
And the caricature at the end says it all about the perverted Powers That (try to) Be.
"...the presence of US Navy off the coast of Iran, which is like negotiating with a gun pointed to the other party’s head (similar to what happened with Venezuela)",
With a small difference. The Venezuela situation was like a Western where the black hat has the drop on the good guy and is pointing his six-shooter right in his face.
The Iran situation is more like the scene in "Judge Roy Bean" where the black hat is out in front of the court house shouting for the judge to come out and shoot it out. Meanwhile the judge (Paul Newman) is lying comfortably in some straw in a barn 100 yards behind the bad guy, aiming his rifle right at the bad guy's spine.
Guess who won that one? Sun Tzu would have approved: never fight a battle unless you are certain that you will win it.
That US task force is just a big target - a sacrificial dinosaur - and everyone knows it. The question is whether Mr Trump has the resolution to fire the first shot, get his ships sunk, and be forced to escalate. Which he can only do to any effective by using strategic nuclear weapons.