7th October 2023 was an idiocy

What follows is my English translation of a post, originally in Italian, by Nilo Vlas on his Telegram channel. It gives a different interpretation of recent events compared to alternative media and, for this, I think it is worth translating and reporting it, though it does not mean that I agree with it. So, here we go:

#geopolitics #palestine #israel #lebanon #iran

7th October 2023 was an idiocy 🇵🇸🇱🇧🇮🇷🤜🤛🇮🇱

I will express an opinion against the current, but I have never been interested in being a megaphone for other people's ideas.

Let's reconstruct the events of the last year:

On 7th October 2023, Hamas commits its stunt, certainly supported by Iran and Hezbollah.

Did Hamas know that, after the massacre of a rave party and some kibbutz, thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza would pay with their lives? Surely it knew, but, as we know, every civilian death flaunted to the international community helps the Palestinian cause, so the inevitable Israeli retaliation would even have been useful.

But Israel did not limit itself to retaliation: it methodically razed all of Gaza.

Iran and Hezbollah threatened by shaking their fists above their heads, they threw a few small firework rockets (as if it was Ney Year's Eve), but nothing more.

Israel upped the ante: it hit the Iranian consulate in Syria (April 2024). Iran's response was only apparently resolute: most of the missiles and drones were shot down before they got close to Israel. No one believed that Tehran had seriously tried.

Iranian President Raisi died in mysterious circumstances (May 2024). The Ayatollahs elected a dove, the moderate Pezeshkian, in his place, hoping for a détente. But Israel upped the ante once again.

In Tehran, to the great humiliation of the hosts, Hamas political leader Ismail Hainyeh was killed (July 2024). Once again, big threats but no real action.

Threats not supported by actions are rightly interpreted as signs of weakness. The flag of revenge, raised too many times in Tehran without anything impressive following (or even ordinary, simply nothing), no longer scares anyone. And of course Israel raises the stakes once again, attacks Lebanon and beheads the leaders of Hezbollah (pictured).

The killing of Nasrallah comes shortly after the UN assembly in New York, where Iran has once again covered itself in ridicule with the pathetically pacifist and conciliatory speeches of its president Pezeshkian.

From the behavior of Iran and Hezbollah in the last year we can deduce that there never existed (contrary to what we all hypothesized and hoped) any long-term plan behind the attack on Hamas on 7th October [2023].

In exchange for a couple of days of safari where Hamas fighters practiced target practice with Israeli settlers and a few rave kids, we got:

🔸Tens of thousands of civilians killed in Gaza. All civilian infrastructure destroyed. Several Hamas leaders killed.

🔸Hezbollah leadership beheaded, including Secretary General Nasrallah.

🔸Iran's prestige at an all-time low. Coincidentally, Iranian President Raisi also dies during this time.

Meanwhile, the damage inflicted on Israel is pretty negligible.

Until now, it has been common to consider 7th October [2023] as the day "the oppressed raised their heads”. Many of us wanted to see this event as another demonstration of multipolar anti-imperialist forces finally throwing down the gauntlet to the current world order.

Almost a year later, we must instead note that 7th October [2023] is instead one of the greatest idiocies in the history of the Middle East. Whatever Iran's calculations, it is clear that it did not expect the reaction that Israel actually had and, at a certain point, it tried to back down and reduce the tension. In doing so, however, it only showed its weakness and provoked Israel to even more ferocious actions.

7th October [2023] is the definition of "peeing outside the pot", without understanding the consequences. Those who pay for them, as always, are above all the common people of Palestine and now also of Lebanon.

Nilo Vlas