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This is the sort of analysis one gets from people who take the last 24-hour or two weeks' news cycle as the gospel and predictor of the future.

An alternative view which is far more rational and based on fact instead of speculation is here:

Israel Launches War On Lebanon & Kills Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah. What Next? w/ Elijah Magnier

https://www.youtube.com/live/pKX2Gul90_Y

I'd also recommend my last four articles on my Substack which lay out the reality of motivations, forces, and possible ways this conflict could play out.

tl;dr bottom line: There are only 3 possible outcomes:

1) The US/Israel destroy all their enemies in the Middle East - Palestinians, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran - and rule the Middle East forever.

2) The Axis of Resistance destroys Israel and drives the US from the Middle East forever.

3) The US/Israel escalate to the point of war with Russia/China supporting the Axis and we have nuclear WWIII.

Pick on. I come down on the side of number 2 - although number 3 is definitely a possibility. Based on the history of the US fighting insurgencies for the last 25 years, number 1 is very doubtful.

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By the way, I've read your 1st article of the series you recommended. I hope that I will find time to read the second soon.

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They are long... :-)

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well...war isn't fought by the generals and Hamas is still strong and alive. Hezbollah will not descend into infighting. no way. This is going to be a long war and the fact that one side is devilish and the other side is fighting a spiritual war without the Christians helping ( shameful ) - basically does not mean that they're losing. God sees everything and this battle is in both worlds. The spiritual worlds and the earthly world And as it would seem there's been a person at a high level betraying all these ' leaders 'which is another tool of Satan. Not God.

The fact that Hezbollah and Iran have been victiimized by the Satanic takeover of our planet with high technology and have not even been afraid of it's killing force - is a high and noble thing to watch. This planet and this human evolution is going through a phase of evil, but in the long term millennial view of our evolution there is nothing but praise - High Angelic Praise for the darling people of the Resistance. They are fighting on the very front line for all of the dear earthly creatures. Praise to the Martyrs

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As even a few Israeli generals and spokespeople have said, Hamas (and Hezbollah) are an ideology and, as such, cannot be defeated, even if they kill their cadres.

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Also this:

As Elijah Magnier said in the video interview, the death of Hassan Nasrallah was not announced until his successor was elected. This is he.

From Twitter:

Dyab Abou Jahjah

@Aboujahjah

This picture is not of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah. This is Sayed Hashem Safiyedeen, the man groomed for years to succeed him. The two men are cousins. They look like brothers. Even their voice is the same. And yet, there is some difference.

Nasrallah, throughout his leadership, has been regarded as a moderate within the context of the broader resistance movement. While his influence and stature as a historic figure are undeniable, his approach has often been characterized by pragmatism. Safiyedeen has all the intellectual and management qualities of Nasrallah but will likely adopt a more aggressive stance, moving from Nasrallah’s diplomacy-focused leadership to a more militant posture.

Netanyahu may come to regret that he assassinated Nasrallah.

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If it were all about might and 'intelligence' then Israel (supported by the US and UK) would appear to be way ahead. But it's not. With every death of a brown person the global majority turns more and more away from the West who will become more and more politically and importantly economically isolated. The PR war is already over. The West lost it.

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Yes and you could see it at the UNGA meeting last week, when most officials walked out when Netanyahu went to the podium.

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Oh, and by the way:

Hezbollah has replaced all martyred commanders: Ex-Quds Force chief

https://en.irna.ir/news/85612287/Hezbollah-has-replaced-all-martyred-commanders-Ex-Quds-Force

And another:

All Hezbollah Late Commanders Replaced: Ex-IRGC Quds Force Chief

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/09/29/3168225/all-hezbollah-late-commanders-replaced-ex-irgc-quds-force-chief

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I have also read that Nasrallah's cousin is his most likely successor, though not confirmed. Probably Hezbollah will keep hid cards closer to its chest now, to prevent Israel to hit its new cadres.

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I appreciate your taking of time translating and posting differing positions.

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I want to avoid this substack to become an echo chamber. We should always be critical, even of our own views.

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Thank you for that.

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Ismaele, RE: "Idiocy"? I believe Nilo Vlas' assessment of the Palestine & eventual Greater Israel Genocide is not correctly calculating all factors. Thanks for posting because this is a common belief & unexamined. At first I read but didn't digest this is a translation from Nilo & not your own.

The EQUATION OF GENOCIDE in all conflicts is always the greatest death factor. UN Definition of Genocide can be summarized as the 'Destruction of or Removing of People from their means of Livelihood, plus Settler & Military murder of a people. Elderly, handicapped, injured, ill, young etc. who normally will recover & provide important diverse knowledge to their families & communities are often momentarily fragile & quickly lost under genocidal apartheid pressures. Middlings (Middle-aged & 'normal') all suffer as well from this important loss of culture.

GENOCIDE's TOLL: Before 7Oct'23, Palestinians were routinely suffering some 100 DEATHS PER DAY (during periods described as 'without armed conflict') from destruction of homes, orchards, gardens, wells, restricted-delayed-obstructed access to food, essentials of life, medical care, starvation diets afforded by Israel's control of Gaza's & the fractured-fragmented West-Bank communities & borders, Lack of access to the primary care & collaboration of Family-Members through walls, checkpoints etc. 100 deaths includes just those in West-Bank, Gaza, East-Jerusalem, but does not include the ravages of several million Palestinians living in Concentration-Refugee-Camps in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt etc.

COMPLEX-LIVEIHOOD CULTURE: Its a mistake to believe people are moveable pawns on a Chess-board. It takes many decades & generations to re-establish sustainable livelihoods & always better to be part of an intergenerational passing down of ecologically aligned intimate, female-male, intergenerational interdisciplinary, critical-mass, economies-of-scale livelihood. Many individual & collective mistakes happen with an even greater genocide death toll to be accurately counted from this destabilization. ~100 per day can probably be multiplied by a factor of four to five (4-5) = ~400 to 500 genocide deaths per day, in counting the genocide death toll for all Palestinians everywhere.

I come from a mixed family with 3 Ashkenazi branches & many Sephardic friends, so understand the ignorant detachment & basic spoiled-brat privileged disdain & ease of dispensing for fellow humans who as 8 billion provide our livelihood. Our privileged position of trickledown $$ proximity to the fake 'money' (Greek 'mnemosis' = 'memory') Oligarch, puts us in an unacknowledged privilege of access to privileged employment, superior salaries & all the toys we might imagine. Members of my extended family have gone off to Israel to kill Palestinians in support Ashkenazi privileged command & control apartheid. I have often asked my folks & friends to sit down for a Both-sided, Equal-time, Recorded & Shared or Published Dialogue, so we might impassionately consider all the factors involved from all perspectives, but am always refused. Both-sides-now, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogue, part of all humanity's worldwide COUNCIL PROCESS, once a dialectic-right to raise issues positive for agreement or for Conflict Resolution. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/d-participatory-structure/1-both-sides-now-equal-time-recorded-dialogues

WISDOM OF VERY YOUNG CONCENTRATION-CAMP PRISONERS

So October 7th represents as well the wisdom of young Gazan, West-Bank, East Jerusalem & other Concentration refugee Camps across Palestine's once open & fluid borders with its neighbours. Rather than waiting for their families & communities to be shrunk down to nothing youth decided to act. A comparison is the destruction of a population of 110 million people in the Americas before the same Oligarch directed & financed European invasions & genocides of 1st Nations on Turtle-Island (North-America). The whole western colonial world, being institutionally reduced to fake money's amnesic ignorance & economic control is complicit in Israel's genocide & war-crimes.

CIRCULAR ECONOMY WISDOM OF PALESTINIANS FOR ALL HUMANITY

The collaborative example of displaced Palestinians sharing & caring in Circular 'Economy' (Gk 'oikos' = 'home' + 'namein' = 'care-&-nurture') employment of everyone's capacities to meet everyone's needs is truly phenomenal.

Islamic economic practice of Multistakeholder Share ownership, indigenous String-shell integrates 'Capital' (L. 'Cap' = 'head' = 'collective-intelligence'), ownership & decision-making, 'Currency' ('flow' of trade), 'Condolence' ('Social-security' benefits), Mentored-apprentice Educational-'Credit', time-math 'Communication', professional 'Costume' identification of essential community expertise & much more. String-shell is based in the ~100 (50-150) person Multihome-Dwelling-Complex with accounting & celebration for all contributions to the collective DOMESTIC economy with industry & commerce as subsets. Recognition-accounting for this core Domestic 'economy' (Greek 'oikos' = 'home' + 'namein' = 'care-&-nurture') centers on the tendency of women (some men as well) as primary care-takers of the home. Unlike most western colonial economies today String-shell empowers women in progressive-ownership of their specialized primarily Domestic enterprise Production-Society-Guilds as well as men for Industry & Commerce supportive contributions. 70% of people today live in Multihomes with an average size of 32 dwelling-units = ~100 people, but without our ancient indigenous knowledge about how to collaborate in circular economy. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/c-relational-economy/1-extending-our-welcome-participatory-multihome-cohousing

REAL WORK OF 'NATION' (French 'naitre' = 'to be born')-HOOD 20% of Multihome-dwellers are extended-families living intentionally in proximity for social & economic collaboration. Multihome-extended-family contribute 2 trillions$ of the most individually appropriate goods, services, sharing caring/year, as Turtle-Island, largest essential Economic sector, albeit unrecognized by government, education & institutions.

RELATIONAL ECONOMY merits our contributions, experience, expertise & decision-making acumen. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/c-relational-economy

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Sep 29
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First of all, this is not my own opinion. As I wrote at the very beginning of this post, I just translated an opinion piece, which I do not agree with entirely.

Secondly, the fact that most of the murders on 7th October were done by the IDF doesn't change much Nilo Vlas's interpretation of the events, i.e. that Hamas and Hezbollah are sacrificing their people without getting anywhere... so far!

However, I agree with you that 7th October was a LIHOP (Let It Happen On Purpose), so that Little Satan could carry out its genocidal plan, but probably Hamas wasn't expecting such a response.

Finally, I warn only once: moderate your language or next time I will ban you!

Everyone is welcome to comment freely and express his/her own opinion, but in a polite manner.

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Sep 29
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You must have clearly missed all my previous articles.

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As I wrote I reply to another comment, I don't want this substack to become an echo chamber. It is important to stay critical.

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Sep 30
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Can we have a decent conversation or do I have to ban you?

This is my final warning: if you keep using this language, you are out!

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