Piracy, retaliation, escalation...
A quick glance at recent events in the Middle East
Today (Saturday 13th April 2024) commandos of Iran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have boarded and seized the Portuguese-flagged cargo ship MSC Aries, associated with London-based Zodiac Maritime, part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Group, while transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by several news outlet, e.g. the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) of Iran, Al Mayadeen and The Guardian, just to name a few.
As far as I am aware, this is only the second time that Iran conducts such an operation since 7th October 2023, the first one being the capture of a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker, St Nikolas, in the Gulf of Oman on 11th January 2024. Please refer to this article from Reuters for more details on that event. In that case, Iran was retaliating to the Outlaw US Empire, which seized the same ship, sailing with a different name (Suez Rajan) and carrying Iranian oil, the year before. The Outlaw US Empire justified the operation saying that the IRGC was trying to send contraband Iranian oil to China, in violation of U.S. sanctions.
We do not know (yet) why the IRGC has decided today to seize the MSC Aries, but, since it is associated to an Israeli-owned company, it could be a small retribution to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria) on Monday 1st April 2024… or just the beginning of a series of retaliatory measures. What I mean is that, while Houthi have been blockading the Bab-el-Mandeb strait to ships with links to Israel, in support to Palestinians in Gaza, Iran may be doing the same in the Strait of Hormuz. And if Iran decides to extend the blockade to ships with links to UK and US, as the Houthis did, that would put a lot of pressure not just on Israel, but on its main sponsors as well, since this would cause an upsurge in oil price in the West. Oil price which has already gone up quite significantly since the Israeli attack on 1st April 2024, due to fears of war between Israel and Iran:
In fact, you may have heard/read from the MSM (e.g. The Guardian) yesterday that not only Israel is panicking about Iranian retaliation to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1st April, but also several countries from across the world. Here is a list of countries that have issued advice to their citizens to leave Israel and/or Iran or against travel to either country, if not both, fearing direct confrontation between them:
Canada,
France,
Germany,
India,
Netherlands,
Norway,
Poland,
Russia,
United Kingdom,
the outlaw US empire.
Most likely their intelligence agencies know something or, at least, must have noticed an upsurge in military movements/preparations in Iran, as pointed out by former CIA analyst, Larry C. Johnson, in his latest post. However, this could be an Iranian maskirovka (i.e. military deception), just to sow panic in Israel and its allies, as Shivan Mahendrarajah tweeted in response to a tweet by Simplicius The Thinker:
I strongly recommend that you read the whole tweet - it is very interesting and informative.
Back to where we started… Israel was quick to call the seizure “an act of piracy”, as reported by The Guardian:
After all, these are the same people who first bomb the Iranian consulate in Damascus for no reason, violating international laws and regulations, especially the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and then say “"Iran will be held accountable if it chooses to escalate the war in the Middle East” (cit. Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the Israel “Defense” Forces (IDF), Saturday 13th April 2024, as reported by Al Mayadeen). Excuse me, who escalated it first and without being provoked by Iran?
So, let’s make it as clear and straightforward as possible:
On Monday 1st April Israel bombs the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including a senior Quds Force commander of the IRGC, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and seven other IRGC officers.
On the same day Iran threatens a (lawful) retaliation against Israel.
The day after, Israel starts panicking and cancels leave for all combat units and steps up GPS jamming/spoofing all over the country.
A few days later, Israel withdraws most of its IDF brigades from southern Gaza, officially just to regroup, but possibly fearing a strong response from Iran, which would need full forces to counteract it, as I reported and discussed in my last post.
The Outlaw US Empire warns Iran not to proceed with expected attack on Israel, as reported earlier today by ABC News.
Israel asks Iran not to escalate the war in the Middle East, otherwise they would held it accountable and respond to it.
It makes sense, no?
Israel can bomb Iranian territory with impunity and without being provoked.
Iran cannot respond to what is an illegal act of war and terrorism. And if Iran dares responding to it, it will pay the consequences.
This is the sheer hypocrisy and double standard of Israel, the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals.
Caitlin Johnstone has just framed it correctly in her latest post, which I invite you to read in full, if you have a few spare minutes:
This is ridiculous. If Iran had bombed a US embassy and killed multiple US military officials, the US would be raining bombs on Tehran within hours and everyone knows it. But Israel bombs an Iranian embassy and everyone acts like it didn’t happen and starts yelling at Iran instead.
UPDATE (13/04/2024): Netanyahu is so afraid of Iranian revenge that he is shitting his pants: Al Mayadeen reports that Netanyahu has “moved over the weekend to the house of Simon Falic in ‘Jerusalem’, which, according to previous reports, has a fortified bunker” and that, according to Israeli media, “authorities are considering closing Israeli airspace tonight”; in the meantime, Jordan's Civil Aviation Authority has temporarily closed its airspace to all civilian aircraft starting from tonight.
Apparently, “several Iranian Shaheed drones are flying towards Israel” according to Lord Bebo (also confirmed by Al Mayadeen), but it “will take them up to 5 hours to arrive, [as] it’s about 1000 km to fly in Israel”:
If Iran really wanted to hurt Israel, it would have launched some hypersonic missiles, which would have reached and hit Israel in a matter of minutes instead of hours. In fact, as Lord Bebo reported, IDF military jets are already in the sky, ready to down the Iraniani drones once within range. So, I am prone to believe that this is either a small demonstration of force or a diversionary move by Iran. There is also the possibility of a false flag, arranged by Israel and the Outlaw US Empire, as Iran has not confirmed the attack (yet), but we will see…
There are rumors that cruise missiles have also been launched towards Israel.
Iran Observer reports that “Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah declares the start of operations against Israel!” So, it could also be that the drones were launched by Kataib Hezbollah from Iraq.
In any case, if something big happens tonight, I will post a new article tomorrow.