i will comment! the short history is syria was part of the ottoman empire, but after ww1, it ceased to be.. it essentially became a french protectorate via a mandate from the league of nations... it wasn't until the middle of ww2 to curry favour with the arab world that french gave independence to syria essentially...
now syria, lebannon and iraq all form the space between israel and iran - sworn enemies... these countries ( syria, lebannon and iraq) are more plural in terms of religious ideology... the interventionist countries - usa, israel and etc - have essentially created failed states in libya and iraq, which haven't managed to gain a strong foothold since the invasion of their countries... will the same happen here with syria and lebannon?? as it stands israel is still coveting the golan heights, although it is not theirs to covet according to the un...
it appears the interventionists are winning in the short term and these countries that being slowly destroyed and having a hard time getting back on their feet.... is it russias responsibility to be a caretaker for the world when interventionism is the mode of operation of some other less moral/ethical countries on the world stage? i personally don't think so!
yes, it appears might makes right, but in the end even the powerful are laid to rest.. we may not see it in our lifetimes, or worse - we might see ww3.. in some ways this looks like the opening gambit.. is iran next?? i can't see russia allowing it and i think iran is capable of responding with strength.. perhaps i am wrong, but it does look like this might be where things are headed.. i hope i am wrong, but at present the west for all it''s high minded pretensions, is clearly a supporter of terrorism here, with israel in particular a case in point, also responsible for ongoing genocide... will they be contained??? at present - not yet...
i can't see much changing under trump, sorry to say... and the flip side of this is i do believe brics and company will get stronger while the usa and friends weaken economically... that is what it looks like to me, so we'll see how it unfolds here in the short term...
"will the same happen here with syria and lebannon??"
Well... Syria has fallen and we are already seeing chaos ensuing. Lebanon has not fallen yet and I hope that Hezbollah puts a hard fight against the Outlaw US and Israeli Empire.
I agree with you regarding Russia's responsibility as a caretaker for the world. We already have one, allegedly, and we do not like it.
"is iran next??"
Hard to say, but not unlikely.
Regarding Trump, I think you already know what I think about him. ;)
the usa and israel bare great responsibility for what has happened in syria... it would be very unlike them to recognize the duplicitous role they've played in all this.. it would be unlike them admitting to supporting terrorists, which in fact they continue to do when it serves their self interests... we'll see how it goes, but with usa leadership - one definitely doesn't want to have that for leadership on the world stage if you're interested in the well being of humanity as a whole..
They are small group favored by neocon, as if they could overcome the IRGC and assorted Islamic republic structure not there when they installed the Shah.
Will definitely do that. I don't do re-stack because I'm too lazy but I do share articles on the political forums I belong to because IMO even the politically savvy people I encounter rely too much on analysts they're already familiar with.
Many of them are great, no question, but I'm finding more and more less well-known analysts who bring a unique perspective and/or fill in a lot of gaps. I think there's still way too much passivity even among those who seem to want to know and understand, i.e., waiting for someone to inform them instead of actively seeking answers themselves.
We also don't need to escape from one echo chamber just to enter another one, which is why I'm encouraged and not disheartened by the disagreement I find among analysts I trust. Sometimes the most honest position is acknowledging we don't have enough facts to decide.
Good reporting, Ismaele. As for a deal between Trump-elect and Putin, that would be political suicide for Putin. As for Russia's sudden turn to diplomacy, IMO it was told the SAA was bought-off and Assad no longer had control. So, Assad might not have spoken to Russia, but someone else did. Like all recent UNSCRs, this one will continue to die. We'll see what emerges tomorrow.
"The New Washington has demonstrated exceptional skill."**** It is unlikely that this can be called skill . Rather , a strategic hemorrhoid on the American ass ! Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah did not play a protracted massacre with terrorists , as the United States and their poodles wanted, but rather preserved their forces and the lives of Syrians. Now that the degenerates from AQ who were rushing to power have "finally" received it, we must expect an increase in attacks of the ill-fated disease for the United States: terrorists, a priori, are not capable of peaceful life and will begin to cause a lot of trouble to their sponsors.Moreover, the bulk of these bastards , according to the idea of the directors , had to die during the months - long journey to Damascus . Probably, in this case, there is a whole container ship of Colombian dope, "raising morale and insensitivity to pain"?! And here? They slipped to Damascus "with the wind", without much loss, no one resisted, they gave up power peacefully, Assad left for Moscow.None of them ...I did not expect such "happiness", neither - "extras", nor - "directors".We will have to, indeed, "build a new Syria", replacing flags will not feed people!
The excuse for Russia and Iran selling out Syria is that "the Syrian army wouldn't fight." It's a convenient excuse but there is zero evidence for it. Martyanov trotted it out (and banned me for criticizing it, an example of his level of intellectual integrity) and now everyone is seizing on it as a way to avoid the painful fact that we were all wrong.
In reality, what happened is that Russia and Iran sold out Syria. Read Lavrov's and Putin's statements, which pathetically tried to put lipstick on the pig. A more mealy-mouthed set of statements one could not find. It was on a par with the incompetent Hezbollah leader who said Hezbollah would continue to abide by the so-called "ceasefire" and threw off the responsibility of dealing with the Israeli violations on the Lebanese Army - like that was going to happen.
So it appears everyone has folded - from Hezbollah to Syria to Iran to Russia. The "Axis of Resistance" was thus a sham from the start - which neither I not any of the other so-called "analysts" got right.
I will no longer comment on either the Ukraine or Middle East wars as I am obviously wrong about everything and can not predict or analyze the actions of cowards and traitors like Putin and the rest.
I should have known. My earliest philosophical belief was: "Trust no one." Subsequently I learned that every human being will betray you - either maliciously or due to utter incompetence.
I have now relearned that lesson and will concentrate on it from now on.
My Substack will now return to its original focus which is on "The Five Essentials" one needs to deal with the coming "cyberpunk" future of war, oppression, economic collapse, etc. as a result of the human animal's inability to function as an intelligent species.
Actually I was wondering why you commented here, since I saw one of your posts saying that you would not comment anymore on Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, etc. :)
Joking aside, it is a known fact that CIA bought Iraqi troops in 2003. Why do you think it may not be the case again? Why do you insist in saying that Iran and Russia sold Syria to the US and to get what? Cornered? It does not make sense.
I think they were genuinely caught by surprise. Why would have Russia bombed the hell of out of HTS almost until the very last minute if they already had a deal with the US? Why did Hezbollah militants risk their lives in Syria, if Iran had a deal with the US?
I'm not sure Iran had a deal. I suspect Iran was sold out by Russia. But Iran was also dithering, so they bear part of the blame. Hezbollah acts on its own, not on Iran orders.
Think about it. A few years ago, the Syrian forces fought for their country. A few years later, they suddenly decide to quit? Syria is not Iraq. Russian and Syrian intelligence knew nothing about their officers being bought off, despite being in constant contact since 2015?
Notice that Russian officers in Syria continued the fight. They weren't told. It was PUTIN who pulled the plug. Without Russia, Iran was in no position to continue, and as I said, they are scared of the US war.
Face it - at the meeting, Russian and Iran could have read the riot act to Erdogan and threatened him with all sorts of reprisals. Russia could have pounded the insurgents with missiles from the Med and Black Sea fleet as well as more fighter-bombers, and poured in ten thousand troops, Ukraine or not. He folded.
Why Putin pulled the plug is unclear. But it's the sort of mistake he makes - relying on "deals" and nuanced diplomacy - which is why Idlib was allowed. The Russian bases will be lost eventually, whatever "deal" he made with the new regime.
Now the insurgents will have access to the entire Syrian army which is close to 200,000, with 800 tanks, 800 IFVs, missiles,. etc. They own a country now.
This means Lebanon is doomed. And what is Qassem doing? He's "observing the 'ceasefire" while putting off retaliation against Israel for the violations on the Lebanese Army - which is a joke.
And when push comes to shove with Iran, Putin will sell out Iran. And everyone like Martyanov will say, "Well, Russia doesn't fight Iran's wars for them."
Convenient.
You're either in the fight or you've lost the fight. Russia will eventually pay for its mistakes. Everyone does. There are no exceptions.
Which IS my last comment on this subject. I'll be unsubscribing to all Substacks which cover this subject effective immediately.
thanks ismaele..
i will comment! the short history is syria was part of the ottoman empire, but after ww1, it ceased to be.. it essentially became a french protectorate via a mandate from the league of nations... it wasn't until the middle of ww2 to curry favour with the arab world that french gave independence to syria essentially...
now syria, lebannon and iraq all form the space between israel and iran - sworn enemies... these countries ( syria, lebannon and iraq) are more plural in terms of religious ideology... the interventionist countries - usa, israel and etc - have essentially created failed states in libya and iraq, which haven't managed to gain a strong foothold since the invasion of their countries... will the same happen here with syria and lebannon?? as it stands israel is still coveting the golan heights, although it is not theirs to covet according to the un...
it appears the interventionists are winning in the short term and these countries that being slowly destroyed and having a hard time getting back on their feet.... is it russias responsibility to be a caretaker for the world when interventionism is the mode of operation of some other less moral/ethical countries on the world stage? i personally don't think so!
yes, it appears might makes right, but in the end even the powerful are laid to rest.. we may not see it in our lifetimes, or worse - we might see ww3.. in some ways this looks like the opening gambit.. is iran next?? i can't see russia allowing it and i think iran is capable of responding with strength.. perhaps i am wrong, but it does look like this might be where things are headed.. i hope i am wrong, but at present the west for all it''s high minded pretensions, is clearly a supporter of terrorism here, with israel in particular a case in point, also responsible for ongoing genocide... will they be contained??? at present - not yet...
i can't see much changing under trump, sorry to say... and the flip side of this is i do believe brics and company will get stronger while the usa and friends weaken economically... that is what it looks like to me, so we'll see how it unfolds here in the short term...
"will the same happen here with syria and lebannon??"
Well... Syria has fallen and we are already seeing chaos ensuing. Lebanon has not fallen yet and I hope that Hezbollah puts a hard fight against the Outlaw US and Israeli Empire.
I agree with you regarding Russia's responsibility as a caretaker for the world. We already have one, allegedly, and we do not like it.
"is iran next??"
Hard to say, but not unlikely.
Regarding Trump, I think you already know what I think about him. ;)
the usa and israel bare great responsibility for what has happened in syria... it would be very unlike them to recognize the duplicitous role they've played in all this.. it would be unlike them admitting to supporting terrorists, which in fact they continue to do when it serves their self interests... we'll see how it goes, but with usa leadership - one definitely doesn't want to have that for leadership on the world stage if you're interested in the well being of humanity as a whole..
USA pentagon has plans for every contingency including investing Iran.
I do not know the ground rules and assumptions but the forces and logistics needed are daunting!
Especially given the withdrawals for Ukraine and Israel.
Can CIA make MEF look like al Nusra?
Do you mean MEK?
Yes on recollection.
They are small group favored by neocon, as if they could overcome the IRGC and assorted Islamic republic structure not there when they installed the Shah.
If you are following me on substack, then you know that I keep an eye on MEK - I posted a couple of articles on MEK last week:
- https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/germany-meks-next-destination-after?r=25fc37
- https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-meks-new-project-in-its-main?r=25fc37
If you are not subscribed, please consider subscribing.
the cia in collaboration with hollywood can make MEK look any way they'd like... trust the sheeple to eat bs on a regular basis too...
Excellent analysis, IMO, that addresses many unanswered questions.
Thank you very much.
Please consider subscribing, if you have not already.
Just did and would have made a pledge if I had the financial means which, unfortunately, I don't.
No worries. :)
The main purpose of this substack is to inform.
You can re-stack or share the articles, instead.
Will definitely do that. I don't do re-stack because I'm too lazy but I do share articles on the political forums I belong to because IMO even the politically savvy people I encounter rely too much on analysts they're already familiar with.
Many of them are great, no question, but I'm finding more and more less well-known analysts who bring a unique perspective and/or fill in a lot of gaps. I think there's still way too much passivity even among those who seem to want to know and understand, i.e., waiting for someone to inform them instead of actively seeking answers themselves.
We also don't need to escape from one echo chamber just to enter another one, which is why I'm encouraged and not disheartened by the disagreement I find among analysts I trust. Sometimes the most honest position is acknowledging we don't have enough facts to decide.
Even better! :)
I agree with you on looking for alternative perspectives and avoiding creating echo chambers. The important thing is: critical thinking.
Read Alistair Cook on u-tube today.
This is about CIA/US-Israel using terrorists to wipe out a heavily sanctioned/poverty stricken nation.
Israel is already coming across the border into Syria.
CIA had a deal years ago......they were going to 'regime change' (before Bill Clinton) seven nations.
Lebanon/Iraq/Syria/Yemen/Libya ...the other I forgot. Iran and Yemen now the only ones left.
This is all about Israel being kept safe and able to use supply routes which were set up in Syria.
Friendly reminder: the FBI about the 10 Million bounty they have on Al Julani, the leader of HTS who is almost certainly now in Damascus:
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/up-to-10-million-reward-offered-for-information-on-the-leader-of-the-al-nusrah-front
Don't worry, he is a "moderate terrorist" now and will be soon removed from the WANTED list. ;)
and have first a tea with Nuttyahoo to be assasinated later 😎
Good reporting, Ismaele. As for a deal between Trump-elect and Putin, that would be political suicide for Putin. As for Russia's sudden turn to diplomacy, IMO it was told the SAA was bought-off and Assad no longer had control. So, Assad might not have spoken to Russia, but someone else did. Like all recent UNSCRs, this one will continue to die. We'll see what emerges tomorrow.
This is a trap: the mice are inside, now the trap can be sprung...( think Hitler, Napoleon in Russia).
See also: Alex Krainer on CapitalCosm on YT
"The New Washington has demonstrated exceptional skill."**** It is unlikely that this can be called skill . Rather , a strategic hemorrhoid on the American ass ! Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah did not play a protracted massacre with terrorists , as the United States and their poodles wanted, but rather preserved their forces and the lives of Syrians. Now that the degenerates from AQ who were rushing to power have "finally" received it, we must expect an increase in attacks of the ill-fated disease for the United States: terrorists, a priori, are not capable of peaceful life and will begin to cause a lot of trouble to their sponsors.Moreover, the bulk of these bastards , according to the idea of the directors , had to die during the months - long journey to Damascus . Probably, in this case, there is a whole container ship of Colombian dope, "raising morale and insensitivity to pain"?! And here? They slipped to Damascus "with the wind", without much loss, no one resisted, they gave up power peacefully, Assad left for Moscow.None of them ...I did not expect such "happiness", neither - "extras", nor - "directors".We will have to, indeed, "build a new Syria", replacing flags will not feed people!
Thanks for this Ismaele.
I am reading and reading.
I will come back tomorrow with some thoughts.
I am sorry to see you go, as you have been bringing up good points here and in other places as well.
I am still here Ismaele. I just wanted to watch more before I comment.
It's all bullshit.
The excuse for Russia and Iran selling out Syria is that "the Syrian army wouldn't fight." It's a convenient excuse but there is zero evidence for it. Martyanov trotted it out (and banned me for criticizing it, an example of his level of intellectual integrity) and now everyone is seizing on it as a way to avoid the painful fact that we were all wrong.
In reality, what happened is that Russia and Iran sold out Syria. Read Lavrov's and Putin's statements, which pathetically tried to put lipstick on the pig. A more mealy-mouthed set of statements one could not find. It was on a par with the incompetent Hezbollah leader who said Hezbollah would continue to abide by the so-called "ceasefire" and threw off the responsibility of dealing with the Israeli violations on the Lebanese Army - like that was going to happen.
So it appears everyone has folded - from Hezbollah to Syria to Iran to Russia. The "Axis of Resistance" was thus a sham from the start - which neither I not any of the other so-called "analysts" got right.
I will no longer comment on either the Ukraine or Middle East wars as I am obviously wrong about everything and can not predict or analyze the actions of cowards and traitors like Putin and the rest.
I should have known. My earliest philosophical belief was: "Trust no one." Subsequently I learned that every human being will betray you - either maliciously or due to utter incompetence.
I have now relearned that lesson and will concentrate on it from now on.
My Substack will now return to its original focus which is on "The Five Essentials" one needs to deal with the coming "cyberpunk" future of war, oppression, economic collapse, etc. as a result of the human animal's inability to function as an intelligent species.
Actually I was wondering why you commented here, since I saw one of your posts saying that you would not comment anymore on Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, etc. :)
Joking aside, it is a known fact that CIA bought Iraqi troops in 2003. Why do you think it may not be the case again? Why do you insist in saying that Iran and Russia sold Syria to the US and to get what? Cornered? It does not make sense.
I think they were genuinely caught by surprise. Why would have Russia bombed the hell of out of HTS almost until the very last minute if they already had a deal with the US? Why did Hezbollah militants risk their lives in Syria, if Iran had a deal with the US?
I'm not sure Iran had a deal. I suspect Iran was sold out by Russia. But Iran was also dithering, so they bear part of the blame. Hezbollah acts on its own, not on Iran orders.
Think about it. A few years ago, the Syrian forces fought for their country. A few years later, they suddenly decide to quit? Syria is not Iraq. Russian and Syrian intelligence knew nothing about their officers being bought off, despite being in constant contact since 2015?
Notice that Russian officers in Syria continued the fight. They weren't told. It was PUTIN who pulled the plug. Without Russia, Iran was in no position to continue, and as I said, they are scared of the US war.
Face it - at the meeting, Russian and Iran could have read the riot act to Erdogan and threatened him with all sorts of reprisals. Russia could have pounded the insurgents with missiles from the Med and Black Sea fleet as well as more fighter-bombers, and poured in ten thousand troops, Ukraine or not. He folded.
Why Putin pulled the plug is unclear. But it's the sort of mistake he makes - relying on "deals" and nuanced diplomacy - which is why Idlib was allowed. The Russian bases will be lost eventually, whatever "deal" he made with the new regime.
Now the insurgents will have access to the entire Syrian army which is close to 200,000, with 800 tanks, 800 IFVs, missiles,. etc. They own a country now.
This means Lebanon is doomed. And what is Qassem doing? He's "observing the 'ceasefire" while putting off retaliation against Israel for the violations on the Lebanese Army - which is a joke.
And when push comes to shove with Iran, Putin will sell out Iran. And everyone like Martyanov will say, "Well, Russia doesn't fight Iran's wars for them."
Convenient.
You're either in the fight or you've lost the fight. Russia will eventually pay for its mistakes. Everyone does. There are no exceptions.
Which IS my last comment on this subject. I'll be unsubscribing to all Substacks which cover this subject effective immediately.
Firstly Syria has been under Sanctions for years. Listen to Alistair Cook on U-tube.
It is a poverty stricken nation caused by the sanctions.
Who trained these rebel/terrorists?
Have you looked at a map lately?