Thousands of injured people in Lebanon after pager blasts across the country

The prelude to a full-blown war between Lebanon and Israel?

I was not expecting to write and post two articles today, but recent developments in Lebanon call for another one!

From Times of Israel.

This afternoon, at around ~16:00 EEST, news media outlets (e.g. The Guardian and Al Mayadeen) were reporting breaking news about several people being injured by simultaneous explosions of pager communication devices across Lebanon and, to a smaller extent, Syria. Initial reports were talking about dozens of injured Lebanese people (The Guardian was calling all of them “Hezbollah members” from the first reports!), followed by reports talking about hundreds of wounded (see the first Al Mayadeen article on the topic, for instance). However, within a few hours the number of injured people reached 2750, as stated by the Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad, who also reported about 8 martyrs, including a 10-year girl - see this other Al Mayadeen article (latest reports at the time of this writing have brought the death toll to 11 plus ~4000 injured). Among the injured also Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani, as reported by Al Mayadeen in its Short News and by IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), whereas Hezbollah leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, was not harmed, as per The Guardian.

From X (formerly Twitter).

One hour after the first reports, Al Mayadeen was quoting Israeli media saying that the Israeli “National Security Council asked ministers not to give interviews about the recent events in Lebanon”. This is typical of Israel - every time their intelligence (Mossad) carries out such an operation, they go silent. Nevertheless, the Times of Israel has reported that…

Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with top brass for talks “with an emphasis on readiness for attack and defense in all arenas.”

Hebrew media reported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and other security chiefs were meeting at the Defense Ministry headquarters at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv following the apparent attack.

Israel was so afraid of an immediate revenge that the local council head of the northern Israeli town of Shlomi, Gabi Na’aman, urged its residents to stay near shelters, as reported by The Guardian:

At ~18:00 EEST, Hezbollah released the followings statements, as reported by Al Mayadeen in its Short News (all emphasis mine):

At approximately 03:30 [PM EEST], several pager devices belonging to several Hezbollah employees exploded.

These explosions, the causes of which are still unknown, have led to the martyrdom of a girl and two brothers, and the injury of a large number of people with various injuries.

We call on our people to be aware of the rumors spread by some parties that serve the psychological war in the enemy’s interest.

The rumors are accompanied by the intimidating and threatening speeches of the Zionist enemy and what it calls changing the situation in the north.

We confirm that the resistance, at all levels and units, is at the highest level of readiness to defend Lebanon and its people.

…followed one hour later by this one (all emphasis mine - see also this article by Al Mayadeen):

After examining all the facts and data about the attack, we hold the Israeli enemy fully responsible for this criminal aggression.

The treacherous and criminal enemy will undoubtedly face its just punishment for this heinous attack, in ways both expected and unforeseen.

…while the Lebanese Foreign Ministry issued the following statement:

We have begun preparing a complaint to the UN Security Council [UNSC] as soon as the data collection related to the attack is completed.

Based on the statements above, we can expect a Lebanese tentative at the UNSC to get a condemnation of the Israeli attack, which most likely will not happen because of the veto power of the Outlaw US Empire and its vassal states (UK and France), after which Hezbollah will execute its retaliation according its plans (i.e. without rushing).

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Now let’s analyse more closely the event. First of all, it has been reported that Hezbollah uses pagers for communication instead of smartphones, to avoid being located and/or subject to cyberattacks/hack. And it has also been reported that…

The Hezbollah communication devices that exploded throughout Lebanon and in Syria were the latest model, brought in by the terror group in recent months

(from the Times of Israel). Yet, several reports have been calling this event a cyberattack, but how can you hack a pager, since it does not connect to Internet and does not even use a SIM card? In my humble opinion, this is more likely electronic warfare rather than cyberattack and I tend to agree with the author of this article on The Guardian, who talks about “sabotaged devices”, which makes sense, if we consider that only the “latest model” of pagers have exploded. By the way, it has been reported that “the handheld pagers, a new brand used by the group, first heated up, then exploded” (from the Times of Israel article, quoting a Hezbollah official who spoke on condition of anonymity to the Associated Press) and that “some Hezbollah members felt their pagers heating up and disposed of them before they exploded” (from the same Times of Israel article, citing an unnamed Hezbollah official speaking to the The Wall Street Journal). It is impossible that a malware has been installed remotely on a pager. Most likely, as per this snippet on The Guardian…

the devices would have likely been packed with between 10 and 20 grams each of military-grade high explosive, hidden inside a fake electronic component. This would have been armed by a signal, something called an alphanumeric text message

…according to a former British Army munitions expert, who spoke to the BBC. By the way, speaking of NATO countries, within just a couple of hours the Outlaw US Empire said twice that they are not involved in the incidents in Lebanon, first through State department spokesperson Matthew Miller at a regular news briefing…

From The Guardian.

…and then via Pentagon spokesperson, Major General Patrick Ryder:

From The Guardian.

Regardless of the involvement of the Outlaw US Empire and its intelligence agencies (CIA on top) or of its vassal state (particularly UK and its MI6 agency), the timing of this operation is quite interesting, as it comes soon after the Houthi’s strike against Israel with a ballistic missile (see my previous article in the link below). Could it be an asymmetric response to the Axis of Resistance?

Also, this operation could be a prelude of an Israeli ground attack in South Lebanon, as they could exploit the fact that hundreds, if not more (thousands?), of Hezbollah fighters are injured and thus out of action. Hopefully, I am wrong, otherwise this could escalate the situation in the Middle East to the boiling point, i.e. a fully fledged war, which may end up involving Iran!

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P.S.: I forgot to mention that market analysts have not liked the evolving of the situation across the border between Israel and Lebanon: in fact, “the shekel experienced a sharp decline”, as reported in this Al Mayadeen article. If Israel takes the path to war with Hezbollah, its economy will suffer even more!

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UPDATE (18/09/2024 AM): The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon has issued the following statement this morning, as reported by Al Mayadeen (emphasis mine):

The criminal enemy must prepare for a profound reckoning for its massacre on Tuesday—a reckoning that is certain to come, God willing.