I hear now the Golani Brigade is REALLY under the gun- in the past 10 hours or so - ambushed. And I sure hope Israel is expelled but I think the US will veto it.
Many thanks for a good summary of events - I have just discovered you via your comment on another blog (Simplicius? Karl Sanchez? I forget) and it was worth the effort!
"If we wait too long, Hezbollah could rebuild its capabilities and reject a ceasefire."
That's a howler. The IDF has achieved zilch in Lebanon. And there is zero chance of a ceasefire without one in Gaza. That's just more Israeli PR from the Wall Street Journal.
"we are shifting toward greater use of airstrikes, armored vehicles, and artillery."
Like they haven't already been doing that for a month - with zilch results. The IDF has not taken even one village - they just come in, Hezbollah leaves, the IDF blows up the village, and then withdraws back to the Blue Line, Hezbollah comes back. The IDF holds nothing inside Lebanon.
The important thing to remember - for those listening to Scott Ritter ten times a day describing how Hezbollah is "destroying" the IDF, which is mostly irrelevant - is that the US hasn't entered the war yet. The US neocons may get this done before Trump is inaugurated or we may have to wait until Trump is maneuvered - or simply decides - to do so (anyone who thinks he won't is delusional.)
Once that happens, the war shifts to Iran and the wider Middle East in addition to Lebanon. Lebanon will come under full US air and naval bombardment - that's what those B-52s are for. What Hezbollah does then and how well it survives will only be part of the story. What will matter is how much damage Hezbollah does when it goes all in - as it will have to under "use it or lose it" theory - to Israel in the process as well as how much damage Iran can do.
The b52s you mention (these are 60 year old airframe designs by the way) will be taken out in the first wave of Iranian hypersonics that will absolutely destroy Israel. And then in an attempt to retaliate we go to nuke Iran from our subs they will double tap every US and any remaining Israeli asset in the region be it roadways, storage tanks, aircraft carrier, destroyer, oiler, airfield, refinery, power station, military barracks and there is not a damn thing Donnie or Bibi will be able to do. It will be too late for Israel, they dug their own grave attempting to murder all of their neighbors. Israel will be a smoking ruin. Our only chance is when Iran levels Israel and decimates our expeditionary force we step bank and blink, and leave the Jews to their own fate. We can nuke the region but that would bring Russia and China to counterstrike and so it's full on checkmate. At that point Donny's natural born cowardice and lack of any morals or loyalty to the Jews who bought and paid for him, he will throw them all under the bus in a heartbeat, turn tail and bolt, proclaiming it the smartest military 5D chess move of all time. And that is how America will be saved by the biggest tasselled loafer draft dodging pussy that ever lived.
1) Doesn't matter how old they are. They can deliver 70.000 pounds of bombs plus cruise missiles and JDAMs.
2) They probably won't be there when the war starts. They will be in Greece or Germany or Diego Garcia, somewhere out of range of most Iranian missiles. Iran won't attack US assets first - and once the US decides to attack, those B-52s will go elsewhere than where they are now.
3) Israel won't be destroyed by Iranian missiles. Damage, yes, not destroyed except maybe in economic terms. Iran does not have enough long-range missiles to destroy Israel. Maybe thousand of drones, but less than a thousand long-range missiles by my (and others) count. But, with the addition of Hezbollah's thousands of rockets and missiles, Israel can be very thoroughly damaged, possibly enough to force them to surrender.
4) You are right that it's highly unlikely the US or Israel will use nukes because if as I suspect Russia has already issued warnings about that then the "Samson Option" will be a non-starter - at least until Israel is seriously in trouble, At that point, if Russia detects Israel prepping a nuke strike, they can take out Israel's Jericho bunkers with Russian hypersonics. The only problem then will be Israel's 5 submarines which have nuclear warhead cruise missiles - but not that many and probably only in the 10-20 kiloton range.
See my "Armageddon in the Middle East" Substack series for details on all the above.
My point is the B52s are an empty gesture - more optics and posturing for the masses. It’s more likely the real reason the B52s are now moved into striking distance is the Jews greatest wish is for Iran to wipe out a few parked bombers to help spur the US into stepping up. They are likely planning to false flag the incident themselves, ala Oct 7th/ USS Liberty style and off we go to the races. We are totally owned by Israel and they are out to destroy us- that is the real reason none of this makes any strategic sense.
and regarding your point #1 - There is no real world application where a B52 will ever be able to drop 70,000 pounds of ordinance on anyone that has the most basic of modern defensive capacity ever again. They cannot even get a couple of JDAMs/ MOABs into striking distance without enormous risk. The days of slow moving long range bombers, aircraft carriers and massive expeditionary forces are long gone.
The B-52s are indeed old and slow. But that's not how things work. If they fly directly over Iran as long as Iran has modern air defense, yes, they will get shot down - as they were in Vietnam running into North Vietnam's old Russian AD.
But as I said, they're more likely to be used over Lebanon. And Lebanon does NOT have advanced AD. How much AD Hezbollah has which can reach the high altitudes a B-52 operates in is unclear.
Therefore they are not an "empty gesture" - although I don't doubt that they were publicly reported to be sent as a warning to Iran not to strike Israel again. Iran will make its own decision on that.
In fact, this is currently the problem for Iran. If Iran strikes Israel hard enough to cause enough damage to be an actual "deterrent" to Israel, then the US steps in. If Iran doesn't, then Israel keep provoking until Iran does.
The problem is Iran keeps talking about "deterrence". There is no "deterrence" in this situation. Israel and the US neocons are determined to get this war while Biden is in office - or at worst when Trump is in office. So Iran has to decide at some point whether it has to go all in regardless because the provocations will not stop and will get progressively worse. Also, Israel and the US will eventually wear down the Axis of Resistance if Iran does not act. That will remove the benefits of having built up the Axis over the last 25 years.
This is probably being discussed in Iran at this moment. I assume the Iranians will come down on the side of going all in. They really have no choice. The only question is whether it is now or later.
I hope some of that pressure will force them to let food and aid into Gaza, and enable a ceasefire.
Zero chance of that.
I hear now the Golani Brigade is REALLY under the gun- in the past 10 hours or so - ambushed. And I sure hope Israel is expelled but I think the US will veto it.
Many thanks for a good summary of events - I have just discovered you via your comment on another blog (Simplicius? Karl Sanchez? I forget) and it was worth the effort!
"If we wait too long, Hezbollah could rebuild its capabilities and reject a ceasefire."
That's a howler. The IDF has achieved zilch in Lebanon. And there is zero chance of a ceasefire without one in Gaza. That's just more Israeli PR from the Wall Street Journal.
"we are shifting toward greater use of airstrikes, armored vehicles, and artillery."
Like they haven't already been doing that for a month - with zilch results. The IDF has not taken even one village - they just come in, Hezbollah leaves, the IDF blows up the village, and then withdraws back to the Blue Line, Hezbollah comes back. The IDF holds nothing inside Lebanon.
The important thing to remember - for those listening to Scott Ritter ten times a day describing how Hezbollah is "destroying" the IDF, which is mostly irrelevant - is that the US hasn't entered the war yet. The US neocons may get this done before Trump is inaugurated or we may have to wait until Trump is maneuvered - or simply decides - to do so (anyone who thinks he won't is delusional.)
Once that happens, the war shifts to Iran and the wider Middle East in addition to Lebanon. Lebanon will come under full US air and naval bombardment - that's what those B-52s are for. What Hezbollah does then and how well it survives will only be part of the story. What will matter is how much damage Hezbollah does when it goes all in - as it will have to under "use it or lose it" theory - to Israel in the process as well as how much damage Iran can do.
Here's my take on your prediction;
The b52s you mention (these are 60 year old airframe designs by the way) will be taken out in the first wave of Iranian hypersonics that will absolutely destroy Israel. And then in an attempt to retaliate we go to nuke Iran from our subs they will double tap every US and any remaining Israeli asset in the region be it roadways, storage tanks, aircraft carrier, destroyer, oiler, airfield, refinery, power station, military barracks and there is not a damn thing Donnie or Bibi will be able to do. It will be too late for Israel, they dug their own grave attempting to murder all of their neighbors. Israel will be a smoking ruin. Our only chance is when Iran levels Israel and decimates our expeditionary force we step bank and blink, and leave the Jews to their own fate. We can nuke the region but that would bring Russia and China to counterstrike and so it's full on checkmate. At that point Donny's natural born cowardice and lack of any morals or loyalty to the Jews who bought and paid for him, he will throw them all under the bus in a heartbeat, turn tail and bolt, proclaiming it the smartest military 5D chess move of all time. And that is how America will be saved by the biggest tasselled loafer draft dodging pussy that ever lived.
Nope.
1) Doesn't matter how old they are. They can deliver 70.000 pounds of bombs plus cruise missiles and JDAMs.
2) They probably won't be there when the war starts. They will be in Greece or Germany or Diego Garcia, somewhere out of range of most Iranian missiles. Iran won't attack US assets first - and once the US decides to attack, those B-52s will go elsewhere than where they are now.
3) Israel won't be destroyed by Iranian missiles. Damage, yes, not destroyed except maybe in economic terms. Iran does not have enough long-range missiles to destroy Israel. Maybe thousand of drones, but less than a thousand long-range missiles by my (and others) count. But, with the addition of Hezbollah's thousands of rockets and missiles, Israel can be very thoroughly damaged, possibly enough to force them to surrender.
4) You are right that it's highly unlikely the US or Israel will use nukes because if as I suspect Russia has already issued warnings about that then the "Samson Option" will be a non-starter - at least until Israel is seriously in trouble, At that point, if Russia detects Israel prepping a nuke strike, they can take out Israel's Jericho bunkers with Russian hypersonics. The only problem then will be Israel's 5 submarines which have nuclear warhead cruise missiles - but not that many and probably only in the 10-20 kiloton range.
See my "Armageddon in the Middle East" Substack series for details on all the above.
My point is the B52s are an empty gesture - more optics and posturing for the masses. It’s more likely the real reason the B52s are now moved into striking distance is the Jews greatest wish is for Iran to wipe out a few parked bombers to help spur the US into stepping up. They are likely planning to false flag the incident themselves, ala Oct 7th/ USS Liberty style and off we go to the races. We are totally owned by Israel and they are out to destroy us- that is the real reason none of this makes any strategic sense.
and regarding your point #1 - There is no real world application where a B52 will ever be able to drop 70,000 pounds of ordinance on anyone that has the most basic of modern defensive capacity ever again. They cannot even get a couple of JDAMs/ MOABs into striking distance without enormous risk. The days of slow moving long range bombers, aircraft carriers and massive expeditionary forces are long gone.
The B-52s are indeed old and slow. But that's not how things work. If they fly directly over Iran as long as Iran has modern air defense, yes, they will get shot down - as they were in Vietnam running into North Vietnam's old Russian AD.
But as I said, they're more likely to be used over Lebanon. And Lebanon does NOT have advanced AD. How much AD Hezbollah has which can reach the high altitudes a B-52 operates in is unclear.
Therefore they are not an "empty gesture" - although I don't doubt that they were publicly reported to be sent as a warning to Iran not to strike Israel again. Iran will make its own decision on that.
In fact, this is currently the problem for Iran. If Iran strikes Israel hard enough to cause enough damage to be an actual "deterrent" to Israel, then the US steps in. If Iran doesn't, then Israel keep provoking until Iran does.
The problem is Iran keeps talking about "deterrence". There is no "deterrence" in this situation. Israel and the US neocons are determined to get this war while Biden is in office - or at worst when Trump is in office. So Iran has to decide at some point whether it has to go all in regardless because the provocations will not stop and will get progressively worse. Also, Israel and the US will eventually wear down the Axis of Resistance if Iran does not act. That will remove the benefits of having built up the Axis over the last 25 years.
This is probably being discussed in Iran at this moment. I assume the Iranians will come down on the side of going all in. They really have no choice. The only question is whether it is now or later.