What follows is my English translation of an article by Domenico Moro, originally in Italian, published on ComeDonChisciotte.org on Thursday 28th November 2024.
the usa is going to have to find a way into the multipolar world... fighting to maintain it's past unipolar position is a fools game.... perhaps trump is the right fool to try to play that game, but it won't succeed for a number of reasons.. and, countries around the whole are hip to all this too... usa's choices here are not pretty, but short of ww3, the usa is going to have to grow up and face reality... i am not sure they are capable..might have to be imposed on them via external forces they are incapable of containing... such is life... the timing for trump as the leader here is a perfect set up the usa's slide into irrelevance on the world stage...
Regrettably, the existence of Oreshnik-type (long, median, and short range) weapons as a deterrent, does not preclude a cornered rat with nukes from launching them.
This presupposes that the "pullback" as seen from the RIVALS' position is a Positive Move, like to Self-Sufficiency and a Better, More Prosperous (and peaceful?) Future.
Rational people have long acknowledged that dealing a Nuclear (Super)power an Existential Defeat sets up a high probability of a Nuclear War (whether it may be the US, Israel, North Korea, Russia, UK, etc.).
The quickness of empire collapse is overstated. It's like believing BRICS doesn't support the IMF and all those other acronyms that have been fucking us.
Your analysis makes sense, except for the idea that an outside force would/might have to force the US to retreat.
The reality is winning and losing is relative unless one side is Destroyed, in fact, not in narrative. Destroying a Superpower completely destroys the Destoyer as well, most likely.
alan - here is my reply to all 3 of your posts... the usa is going to go thru something similar to what the ussr did - late 80's early 90's... it will be a tough pill to swallow, but it will be something like this... it could come about thru a type of financial crash, which is also what russia suffered in the transition from ussr to russia 1991 forward... so - no, the 'defeat' of a nuclear power, as instanced by russia - doesn't mean the use of nukes.. that said, the only country that has actually used nukes is the usa, so there is that... when you think of who the good guys and the bad guys are here - it seems clear to me, in spite of what the western msm tells us..
it's financial, but it will require a complete shift.. the gradual one that is happening - brics and etc. etc - is more favourable... this is another reason russia has gone slowly in ukraine.. it is a prudent strategy as i see it... confronting a cornered rat is not a good idea...
the usa has to learn how to live in a world where they can't exploit others as they have done, especially since the end of ww2... some maturity on the part of americans and american politicians is needed... will it come?? i think it will gradually when they wake up to how the rest of the world is moving on, regardless... no time for illusions and time for reality check... we are increasingly in a multipolar world, in spite of the dominance of the us$, which is also fading slowly but surely..
OTOH, given the culture of the US an economic collapse will be blamed on its enemies, because, like Trump threatening 100% tariffs for support of a BRICS currency, the Pols/Elite will blame others for undermining the currency, when their own asset confiscations/debanking/sanctions/boycotts provided the incentive to create a new trade/reserve currency.
And the Debt Crisis will be blamed on the foreigners who stopped buying T-securities and holding FED Reserve Notes.
What do they do when rivals win? They double down.
well the financial sanctions started a good bit of this... when you use your advantage with the us$ to try to lord it over others, others find alternatives.. brics is an alternative too...
the whole idea of 'rules based' law, verses international law, always stood out in my mind... these usa forced sanctions are no international law.. it is the law of 'might makes right' and do as we say, or you will suffer the consequences.. it seems to me many americans are oblivious to all hardship and death their wars of dominance have caused around the globe... but it is their financial sanctions that will ultimately be their undoing..
Rules based Order is the rules that Organized Crime lays down and enforces on those who never consented to be governed.
Sanctions are a demonstration of macho power that is applied to those who refuse to obey. IOW it is a public admission of failure by the hegemon and a negative incentive to those yet to be sanctioned.
If Freedom and Prosperity were the result for those who followed the rules based order, sanctions would not be needed. Those who make the rules don't have to follow them and those that do follow them benefit those who make them.
You don't have to be a Psychologist to know that if you make people suffer they will not like you.
Response to Ismaele's GeoPolitiQ "The Trump administration was created to stop the new multipolar world"
The notion that some tech billionaires are going to change the overall position of the billionaires who came before them - and who control the financing that the tech billionaires rely on to build their businesses - is ludicrous. There will be no "change" coming from that direction. People like the moronic Musk are a joke, quite suitable companions for a moron like Trump. Both Musk and Trump behave like bulls in a China shop.
Trump is nothing but a front person. It is well-known that he only does what the last person he talked to told him to do - and that person is either another moron, like his son-in-law, or someone either on the neocon or old money side (or, apparently, on the moronic tech-billionaire side with Musk.)
There appears to be this myth that just because everyone hates Trump - because he's a moron and an obnoxious one at that - that he represents some sort of "threat" to the Deep State. He does not. The Deep State can run rings around that clown. And the Old Money people can bury him any time they want - he's hardly a financial genius, he's just a real estate hustler.
Neither does he represent any sort of "change" as the article confusingly displays. What kind of "change" is there while at the same time stating that there is "continuity" with the previous administrations and indeed the entire history of the US since WWII (if not before)?
Human nature doesn't change. Human greed and power lust does not change. There is no "change" occurring anywhere. It is just the rise of other Great Powers versus the existing Great Power - which is the inevitable result of history. This is not "change" on any fundamental level.
And Trump is the last person one would expect to make any fundamental changes.
The article does provide a nice overview of the situation - and how it will all get worse.
"Cheer up, things could be worse. So I cheered up - and sure enough, things got worse."
I just crossposted this, saying that Trump is a frontman for the Empire. That still means he was chosen, and the Empire can proceed with its goals whilst the circus distracts the Public. I belivee they're creating an option for focus on China and, secondary, Iran (for the purpose of a US/Sunni alliance).
However, they're greedy buggers so they will get as much profit as they can from Ukraine, and be sure to embed themselves even if its only West of the Dnipro. After all, wonderall, Google's ex-CEO didn't become an arms dealer to lose his Slavic foundation which will test those AI swarm drones for use in Asia.
Iran isn't just for a Sunni alliance, but to deny China access to Iran's oil, thus crashing the Chinese economy and also preventing oil resupply during the upcoming US-China war (not to mention attempting to cut off oil flow through the Indian to Pacific ocean.)
I agree the Ukraine thing will continue - at least up to the point where Putin takes all of Ukraine, as I've been saying since April, 2022, and puts a Military District on the border with Poland and Romania (plus a naval base in Odessa.) Putin will not allow NATO to embed itself in western Ukraine.
I believe Putin's ideal win would be Odessa with a link to Transnistria and the border of Romania, and East of Dnipro. That would limit a Bandera insurgency, and, by being face-to-face, draw a line for NATO. Failing that, he'd settle for the 30km north of Kharkiv, a buffer zone in Sumy, and Zap.
Israel will be hung onto but is now just a playing card towards the US/Sunni alliance. I agree with you that Iran would then become their main focus.
I comment as an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started and have monitored the situation in Ukraine as closely as anyone.
I have held a similar view to Richard for a long time. This view only gets stronger as time passes and AmeriNATO reveal their virulent hatred of Russia more & more through their actions.
Given Russia's primary stated terms- no NATO, demilitarized & denazified- the only possible way to ensure these goals are achieved- require Russia to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine.
Also- Russia requires a European Security agreement which includes reduced American presence in central Europe.
Belligerent, arrogant America will never agree to this.
As such Russia will continue advancing to Ukraines western border.
Many people have various views why Russia doesn't want this. But virtually all of them are out of date.
At the start of this SMO Russia wanted to reach an agreement that would have ended the military conflict quickly. Russia never intended to take control of Ukraine, but is now virtually has no choice if it wants stable, long term peace.
Finally it seems the ever patient & tolerant Putin seems to have come to terms with the only way to secure the stable, long term peace Russia wants, is to physically secure it.
Promises of sanctions relief have little meaning to Russia.
There is just no way Russia is going to leave any Ukrainian territory accesible to America, NATO or Blackrock. This is just asking for trouble in 5 or 10 years.
Everyone always brings up the "Bandera insurgency." It's bullshit.
There can be no "Bandera insurgency." Insurgencies are not possible since the development of thermal-vision lethal drones. Only if you can dig deep underground, like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, can an insurgency survive.
Also, Russia will bring in thousands of military police, Rosqvardia, GRU, SVR and FSB agents to locate, detain and deport anyone with the intent and resources to start such an insurgency.
In any event, Russia defeated a Ukrainian insurgency between 1947 and 1956 that killed 200,000 Ukrainians and 20,000 Russian soldiers. Since then, they've done Afghanistan, Chechnya (twice) and Syria - and are still doing Syria since they screwed up the first time. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. They've learned how to deal with insurgencies.
Also, a hypothetical insurgency does not override basic Russian national security concerns - which are those Aegis Ashore installations and any other US and NATO buildup of troops in Europe.
What Russia has to do is build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic to prevent any more invasions from the West. I believe that is why they are expanding the army to between 1.5 and 2 million men - to man those new Military Districts.
All valid points, but its easier to manage a population that wants you, and to build that shield effectively will require the money the West has stolen.
Hopefully Ukraine doesn't attack Transnistria before Russia knows where it lies with Trump. Consequently, Russia has to make a big move, even if its the destruction of something symbolic.
If that fails, the contingency/determination is the 2025 military budget being a third of Russia's income (but that runs great economic risk).
Trump reveals his level of ignorance in his tweet as the BRICS and the developing Global Majority have many more market opportunities to export their products to than just the declining Outlaw US Empire. And as myself and others have explained, Trump's tariffs will generate a substantial inflationary crisis within the Empire where the 90% are experiencing an economic depression, the economic numbers like GDP being twisted to only show the great gains attained by the top 10% which is what Neoliberalism is designed to do.
The Primacy Trump seeks to restore was destroyed forever by Biden. The Empire long ago ceased being the indispensable nation.
Trump has golden opportunities but that "MAGA" and "America First (Amerika Uber Alles)" shit doesn't cut it. America needs to wake up to the fact that America was never great, just lucky and our luck is running out. American Patriots must de-Nazify our nation. We've become the 4th Reich!
A Notice to Cease and Desist the Legal Administrative Simulation. The TRUMP-ET Blows another Bloody Horn. . His Trumpet has not got the Note of Peace coming outta it. "Donald The Debt Slave Master" fronting as SERVING THE DEBT SLAVES. Its All Plantation Law, morphed from Venetian Merchant Law . They can only be FORCED to change their minds because their minds are fully enslaved and DRUNK on Holy-Wood. Is there a Copyright on 'YOU'RE FIRED?" Pay attention to the English Constitutionalists. The common man (plebiscites/IDIOTS) and decentralisation are Donalds problem in the near future. Magistrates and Communism are in full swing and getting heavily challenged on Ground level. Municipal is running the show now under disguise of the "peoples" elected "FATHERS OF THE NATIONS" bullshit (communist PARENT politics)Only a Deranged Specie will spoil his own Nest.! Companies are "DERANGED PERSONS". simulated species. Worst is, we are paying for them to murder ourselves.
the usa is going to have to find a way into the multipolar world... fighting to maintain it's past unipolar position is a fools game.... perhaps trump is the right fool to try to play that game, but it won't succeed for a number of reasons.. and, countries around the whole are hip to all this too... usa's choices here are not pretty, but short of ww3, the usa is going to have to grow up and face reality... i am not sure they are capable..might have to be imposed on them via external forces they are incapable of containing... such is life... the timing for trump as the leader here is a perfect set up the usa's slide into irrelevance on the world stage...
Regrettably, the existence of Oreshnik-type (long, median, and short range) weapons as a deterrent, does not preclude a cornered rat with nukes from launching them.
HOW TO MOTIVATE A VOLUNTARY RETRENCHMENT?
This presupposes that the "pullback" as seen from the RIVALS' position is a Positive Move, like to Self-Sufficiency and a Better, More Prosperous (and peaceful?) Future.
Rational people have long acknowledged that dealing a Nuclear (Super)power an Existential Defeat sets up a high probability of a Nuclear War (whether it may be the US, Israel, North Korea, Russia, UK, etc.).
The quickness of empire collapse is overstated. It's like believing BRICS doesn't support the IMF and all those other acronyms that have been fucking us.
baby steps..
Your analysis makes sense, except for the idea that an outside force would/might have to force the US to retreat.
The reality is winning and losing is relative unless one side is Destroyed, in fact, not in narrative. Destroying a Superpower completely destroys the Destoyer as well, most likely.
So the real and practical question is:
alan - here is my reply to all 3 of your posts... the usa is going to go thru something similar to what the ussr did - late 80's early 90's... it will be a tough pill to swallow, but it will be something like this... it could come about thru a type of financial crash, which is also what russia suffered in the transition from ussr to russia 1991 forward... so - no, the 'defeat' of a nuclear power, as instanced by russia - doesn't mean the use of nukes.. that said, the only country that has actually used nukes is the usa, so there is that... when you think of who the good guys and the bad guys are here - it seems clear to me, in spite of what the western msm tells us..
it's financial, but it will require a complete shift.. the gradual one that is happening - brics and etc. etc - is more favourable... this is another reason russia has gone slowly in ukraine.. it is a prudent strategy as i see it... confronting a cornered rat is not a good idea...
the usa has to learn how to live in a world where they can't exploit others as they have done, especially since the end of ww2... some maturity on the part of americans and american politicians is needed... will it come?? i think it will gradually when they wake up to how the rest of the world is moving on, regardless... no time for illusions and time for reality check... we are increasingly in a multipolar world, in spite of the dominance of the us$, which is also fading slowly but surely..
Good points.
OTOH, given the culture of the US an economic collapse will be blamed on its enemies, because, like Trump threatening 100% tariffs for support of a BRICS currency, the Pols/Elite will blame others for undermining the currency, when their own asset confiscations/debanking/sanctions/boycotts provided the incentive to create a new trade/reserve currency.
And the Debt Crisis will be blamed on the foreigners who stopped buying T-securities and holding FED Reserve Notes.
What do they do when rivals win? They double down.
well the financial sanctions started a good bit of this... when you use your advantage with the us$ to try to lord it over others, others find alternatives.. brics is an alternative too...
the whole idea of 'rules based' law, verses international law, always stood out in my mind... these usa forced sanctions are no international law.. it is the law of 'might makes right' and do as we say, or you will suffer the consequences.. it seems to me many americans are oblivious to all hardship and death their wars of dominance have caused around the globe... but it is their financial sanctions that will ultimately be their undoing..
Rules based Order is the rules that Organized Crime lays down and enforces on those who never consented to be governed.
Sanctions are a demonstration of macho power that is applied to those who refuse to obey. IOW it is a public admission of failure by the hegemon and a negative incentive to those yet to be sanctioned.
If Freedom and Prosperity were the result for those who followed the rules based order, sanctions would not be needed. Those who make the rules don't have to follow them and those that do follow them benefit those who make them.
You don't have to be a Psychologist to know that if you make people suffer they will not like you.
you might enjoy this - richard wolff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn56yhVzuiI
Response to Ismaele's GeoPolitiQ "The Trump administration was created to stop the new multipolar world"
The notion that some tech billionaires are going to change the overall position of the billionaires who came before them - and who control the financing that the tech billionaires rely on to build their businesses - is ludicrous. There will be no "change" coming from that direction. People like the moronic Musk are a joke, quite suitable companions for a moron like Trump. Both Musk and Trump behave like bulls in a China shop.
Trump is nothing but a front person. It is well-known that he only does what the last person he talked to told him to do - and that person is either another moron, like his son-in-law, or someone either on the neocon or old money side (or, apparently, on the moronic tech-billionaire side with Musk.)
There appears to be this myth that just because everyone hates Trump - because he's a moron and an obnoxious one at that - that he represents some sort of "threat" to the Deep State. He does not. The Deep State can run rings around that clown. And the Old Money people can bury him any time they want - he's hardly a financial genius, he's just a real estate hustler.
Neither does he represent any sort of "change" as the article confusingly displays. What kind of "change" is there while at the same time stating that there is "continuity" with the previous administrations and indeed the entire history of the US since WWII (if not before)?
Human nature doesn't change. Human greed and power lust does not change. There is no "change" occurring anywhere. It is just the rise of other Great Powers versus the existing Great Power - which is the inevitable result of history. This is not "change" on any fundamental level.
And Trump is the last person one would expect to make any fundamental changes.
The article does provide a nice overview of the situation - and how it will all get worse.
"Cheer up, things could be worse. So I cheered up - and sure enough, things got worse."
I just crossposted this, saying that Trump is a frontman for the Empire. That still means he was chosen, and the Empire can proceed with its goals whilst the circus distracts the Public. I belivee they're creating an option for focus on China and, secondary, Iran (for the purpose of a US/Sunni alliance).
However, they're greedy buggers so they will get as much profit as they can from Ukraine, and be sure to embed themselves even if its only West of the Dnipro. After all, wonderall, Google's ex-CEO didn't become an arms dealer to lose his Slavic foundation which will test those AI swarm drones for use in Asia.
Iran isn't just for a Sunni alliance, but to deny China access to Iran's oil, thus crashing the Chinese economy and also preventing oil resupply during the upcoming US-China war (not to mention attempting to cut off oil flow through the Indian to Pacific ocean.)
I agree the Ukraine thing will continue - at least up to the point where Putin takes all of Ukraine, as I've been saying since April, 2022, and puts a Military District on the border with Poland and Romania (plus a naval base in Odessa.) Putin will not allow NATO to embed itself in western Ukraine.
I believe Putin's ideal win would be Odessa with a link to Transnistria and the border of Romania, and East of Dnipro. That would limit a Bandera insurgency, and, by being face-to-face, draw a line for NATO. Failing that, he'd settle for the 30km north of Kharkiv, a buffer zone in Sumy, and Zap.
Israel will be hung onto but is now just a playing card towards the US/Sunni alliance. I agree with you that Iran would then become their main focus.
I comment as an expat who was living in Ukraine when the SMO started and have monitored the situation in Ukraine as closely as anyone.
I have held a similar view to Richard for a long time. This view only gets stronger as time passes and AmeriNATO reveal their virulent hatred of Russia more & more through their actions.
Given Russia's primary stated terms- no NATO, demilitarized & denazified- the only possible way to ensure these goals are achieved- require Russia to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine.
Also- Russia requires a European Security agreement which includes reduced American presence in central Europe.
Belligerent, arrogant America will never agree to this.
As such Russia will continue advancing to Ukraines western border.
Many people have various views why Russia doesn't want this. But virtually all of them are out of date.
At the start of this SMO Russia wanted to reach an agreement that would have ended the military conflict quickly. Russia never intended to take control of Ukraine, but is now virtually has no choice if it wants stable, long term peace.
Finally it seems the ever patient & tolerant Putin seems to have come to terms with the only way to secure the stable, long term peace Russia wants, is to physically secure it.
Promises of sanctions relief have little meaning to Russia.
There is just no way Russia is going to leave any Ukrainian territory accesible to America, NATO or Blackrock. This is just asking for trouble in 5 or 10 years.
I posted a RAND prediction yesterday, that outlines the plan that has been enacted - https://www.mikehampton.co.uk/p/american-ouija-board-predicted-todays-events-rand-corporation-think-tank-usa-russia-ukraine
A subscriber shared a link to another report - https://neilnetherton.substack.com/p/the-rand-report-on-how-us-rules-the-world
Everyone always brings up the "Bandera insurgency." It's bullshit.
There can be no "Bandera insurgency." Insurgencies are not possible since the development of thermal-vision lethal drones. Only if you can dig deep underground, like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, can an insurgency survive.
Also, Russia will bring in thousands of military police, Rosqvardia, GRU, SVR and FSB agents to locate, detain and deport anyone with the intent and resources to start such an insurgency.
In any event, Russia defeated a Ukrainian insurgency between 1947 and 1956 that killed 200,000 Ukrainians and 20,000 Russian soldiers. Since then, they've done Afghanistan, Chechnya (twice) and Syria - and are still doing Syria since they screwed up the first time. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. They've learned how to deal with insurgencies.
Also, a hypothetical insurgency does not override basic Russian national security concerns - which are those Aegis Ashore installations and any other US and NATO buildup of troops in Europe.
What Russia has to do is build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic to prevent any more invasions from the West. I believe that is why they are expanding the army to between 1.5 and 2 million men - to man those new Military Districts.
All valid points, but its easier to manage a population that wants you, and to build that shield effectively will require the money the West has stolen.
Hopefully Ukraine doesn't attack Transnistria before Russia knows where it lies with Trump. Consequently, Russia has to make a big move, even if its the destruction of something symbolic.
If that fails, the contingency/determination is the 2025 military budget being a third of Russia's income (but that runs great economic risk).
Trump reveals his level of ignorance in his tweet as the BRICS and the developing Global Majority have many more market opportunities to export their products to than just the declining Outlaw US Empire. And as myself and others have explained, Trump's tariffs will generate a substantial inflationary crisis within the Empire where the 90% are experiencing an economic depression, the economic numbers like GDP being twisted to only show the great gains attained by the top 10% which is what Neoliberalism is designed to do.
The Primacy Trump seeks to restore was destroyed forever by Biden. The Empire long ago ceased being the indispensable nation.
One recession, and the world will rock, and the USA will have to look more inwards.
Trump has golden opportunities but that "MAGA" and "America First (Amerika Uber Alles)" shit doesn't cut it. America needs to wake up to the fact that America was never great, just lucky and our luck is running out. American Patriots must de-Nazify our nation. We've become the 4th Reich!
Excellent analysis
Thanks for posting.
Thank you.
Please consider subscribing, if you like posts like these and my substack.
Blind and dumb politicians in the West.
Sore losers.
Multipolar era please.
Wonderful article which gives a fresh breathe to the subject as someone sitting in U.S.A.
Thanks.
A solid encapsulation, so I've cross-posted it to my page. Thanks.
Not sure Trump is anything but same-old same-old. He might surprise us, or not.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/12/02/ray-mcgovern-neocons-try-again-in-syria/?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=325b83e1-dc03-4419-9503-4939513588e5
A Notice to Cease and Desist the Legal Administrative Simulation. The TRUMP-ET Blows another Bloody Horn. . His Trumpet has not got the Note of Peace coming outta it. "Donald The Debt Slave Master" fronting as SERVING THE DEBT SLAVES. Its All Plantation Law, morphed from Venetian Merchant Law . They can only be FORCED to change their minds because their minds are fully enslaved and DRUNK on Holy-Wood. Is there a Copyright on 'YOU'RE FIRED?" Pay attention to the English Constitutionalists. The common man (plebiscites/IDIOTS) and decentralisation are Donalds problem in the near future. Magistrates and Communism are in full swing and getting heavily challenged on Ground level. Municipal is running the show now under disguise of the "peoples" elected "FATHERS OF THE NATIONS" bullshit (communist PARENT politics)Only a Deranged Specie will spoil his own Nest.! Companies are "DERANGED PERSONS". simulated species. Worst is, we are paying for them to murder ourselves.
Trump, like Biden, is being ‘managed’ by the Cabal Shadow Government, Deep State and MIC just like in 2017-2020.
He is not calling the shots.