The meaning of the fall of Damascus

A look at recent events and how they may develop.

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From Al Mayadeen.

As you probably know from Western mainstream media (MSM, e.g. The Guardian) and/or alternative media (e.g. Al Mayadeen or Caitlin Johnstone, which I recommend that you read), Damascus has fallen and the so-called “Assad regime” in Syria is no more. Let me provide a very short, yet effective summary by Italian journalist Vittorio Rangeloni on his Telegram channel:

Syria has ceased to exist. The army has not even tried to resist, melting away like snow in the sun, Assad has fled. But this is only the beginning. Prison doors have been opened, military stores are being raided, and Israel's army, taking advantage of the chaos, has crossed the border with heavy vehicles.

The Syrian prime minister, who remained in Damascus, told the Al Arabiya broadcaster that the government is holding talks with the leaders of the Syrian guerrillas, expressing readiness to peacefully transfer power in the country.

Before delving into the core of this article and responding to the implicit question in the title of this article (What does the fall of Damascus means and entails from a broader geopolitical point of view?), let me first share with you my English translation of the following article, originally in Italian, that Movisol.org published yesterday (Friday 7th December 2024):

US Colonel Richard H. Black.

The CIA's role in the endless war in Syria

Since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group and the Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels launched a surprise offensive on 27th November [2024], occupying parts of Aleppo and advancing towards Damascus, President Assad's government has launched an apparently effective military counter-offensive [ehm, not quite!], with crucial air support from Russia. The Biden administration has denied involvement in the attack by this successor organisation to Al-Qaeda, although the weakening of the Assad government is welcomed by many in Washington and London.

Colonel Richard H. Black (photo), a leading American expert on Syria, is not convinced by these denials, as he explained in a speech to the International Coalition for Peace on 29th November [2024]. In his view, the attack, which broke the ceasefire agreed in 2020 with the partial mediation of Ankara, was carried out “with the likely assistance of Turkey [for sure, despite initial Turkish denials - read my previous article] and, I suspect, with the guidance of the Central Intelligence Agency [CIA]”. The Kurdish presence in the area is a decisive factor for the Turkish-backed SNA intervention.

Col. Black, former head of the Army's Criminal Law Division at the Pentagon, suggested to the IPC [International Peace Coalition] that the current attack by al-Qaeda and its allies was intended to “take advantage of the fact that Syria is being attacked by Israel”, which has made increasing use of the air force. Moreover, the CIA has been involved in the organisation of Syrian terrorists “since 2011”. It is therefore unlikely, he said, “that the rebels in Idlib province could have been unleashed without the explicit guidance of the Central Intelligence Agency. Thanks to Wikileaks, we discovered many years ago that the CIA set up a series of large storage centres along the Turkish border with Syria for the purpose of funnelling weapons to terrorists who were attacking the legitimate Syrian government... We [the US, author’s note] did not necessarily orchestrate all the tactics, strategies, and ideology used by the terrorists, but we knew what they were doing”.

As for Turkey, Ankara “is always looking for opportunities to seize Syrian territory and is certainly complicit in the current attacks”. In addition, Colonel Black noted, “this represents an opportunity for Israel, which has long had its eye on Syrian property”. So, we will see what develops, but there is no doubt that within the Deep State, there are elements of the CIA, of the Pentagon, who are looking for an expansion of the war and the creation of a new front in Syria to once again undermine any effort the Trump administration might have to bring calm and peace to the world”.

I think that this article already provides a partial answers to my question, although I disagree with the conclusion: Trump administration is unlikely to “bring calm and peace to the world”, as suggested by the authors, who probably may have missed Trump’s recent threats against the Middle East (see my article in the link below).

For sure, at the very least the Outlaw US Empire is trying to protect its bases in the country - the Pentagon has already made clear that it will maintain presence in eastern Syria, as reported by The Guardian - and helping its Israeli ally; however, it may also try to dislodge the Russian bases (more on this later).

Israel is already bolstering its presence in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, as reported by Al Mayadeen, which quoted an Israeli army spokesperson as saying:

The Israeli army will continue to take necessary actions to preserve the demilitarized zone and protect the state and its people.

…yet announcing that “the occupied Golan Heights at the border with Syria is now a close military zone”, whereas quoted Syrian sources claim that Israel is “constructing a buffer zone along its border with Syria”. However, the Israeli Walla! news media outlet, cited within the same Al Mayadeen article, reports that Israel is “in direct communication with various groups in Syria, including the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, through intermediaries. The Israeli message, according to the report, urges these groups to stay away from the border area”. I speculate that we may soon see some theatricals in the area, with the terrorist groups pretending to attack Israel (despite being allies, as discussed in my previous article) and the latter responding with an invasion, occupying even more Syrian territory, a wet dream of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (see this article by Middle East Monitor) and other Zionists. By the way, here is what Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu said earlier today, while speaking near the Syrian border and and taking “credit for the process that led to Assad’s fall”, as reported by The Times of Israel:

This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East.

The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen.

This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime.

This has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to be free from this oppressive and tyrannical regime.

We are acting first and foremost to protect our border. This area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed, the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.

This afternoon Al Mayadeen in its Short News quoted Israeli media reporting that the “Israeli army entered several kilometers into the Syrian Golan from the former border line” and “occupied the Syrian Hermon” (read also this Al Mayadeen article)! So, actually Israeli may not even need an excuse such as the aforementioned fake clash with the terrorist groups. Of course, Israel is claiming that its deployments are “temporary” and “defensive”, as per Times of Israel, but such claims are not to be trusted, given past experience with previous illegitimate “temporary” occupations of Palestinian land.

The fall of Damascus is a huge problem for Palestine and the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah in Lebanon first of all. In fact, if you have a look at the map below, you will realize that now Hezbollah is completely isolated from its main ally, Iran, via Iraq, meaning that it will be more difficult to get caches of weapons and ammunition, though it may still receive them from the Russians… if they manage keep their bases in Syria, in particular the Hmeimim airbase in Lattakia province and its naval facility at Tartus on the coast, which brings me to the next topic: the role of Russia (and Iran) in the Syrian debacle.

We know for sure that Russia was helping the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) until very recently (see for instance this Al Mayadeen article), mainly with airstrike. However, the last few days have seen a diplomatic escalation, rather than a military one, suggesting that the Russians may have sensed that its help would not have been enough in supporting the SAA, which effectively was constantly retreating from key strategic positions, instead of fighting, thus allowing the terrorist groups (mainly SNA and HTS) to advance towards Damascus at an incredible pace! But why this behaviour from SAA? Considering that, according to some reports, the SAA soldiers even received orders not to fight, I believe that the CIA may have bribed SAA troops as it did with Iraqi troops in 2003 (see this article by the Independent and Simplicius The Thinker’s analysis from last year). So, as Andrei Martyanov has written on his blog (read his posts, please!), what’s the point for the Russians of supporting an army that refuses to fight? Either because it has been bribed or because it lacks morale or something else! Hence, I do not believe that Russians (and Iranians) have betrayed Syria; to me, it looks like the other way around. But let’s have a look at recent developments and statements, to better understand what happened.

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In my previous article (link above) I showed how until two days ago (Friday 6th December 2024) Iran was “providing intelligence and satellite-related support to Syria” and promising “to send military equipment, missiles and drones to Syria”, as well as “to increase the number of its military advisers in Syria and deploy forces”, while at the same time the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was meeting with his Iraqi and Syrian counterparts. However, yesterday both Russia and Iran switched to diplomacy, as their Foreign Ministers convened a meeting in the Astana format at the 2024 Doha Forum in Qatar, together with their Turkish counterpart (most likely representing the Outlaw US and Israeli empire, as well as the so-called “Syrian rebels”).

Foreign Ministers of Russia (Sergey Lavrov - L), Turkey (Hakan Fidan - C) and Iran (Abbas Araghchi - R) - from Al Mayadeen.

Here is what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, as per Al Mayadeen:

We strongly reiterated the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and unity of the Syrian Arab Republic. We called for an immediate end of hostile activities.

We are absolutely convinced of the inadmissibility of using terrorists like the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to achieve geopolitical purposes, as it is being done now with the organization of this offensive from the Idlib de-escalation area.

If the opposition, which was mentioned in the [UN Security Council] Resolution 2254, is a responsible opposition, if they care about their country, then they would not allow for this operation to continue. They participate in hostilities as well, and today's call from Iran, Turkey and Russia should be heard by everybody who is on the ground in Syria.

There is a series of ideas, which we want to put into practice to keep Syria territorially integral and united, while ensuring security of the border, which is porous, has been porous for terrorist attacks on the territory of Turkey … I have not the slightest doubt that the relations between Syria and Turkey must be normalized, and we will be doing anything to be helpful.

Representatives from the Astana Process (Iran, Turkey, and Russia) also met with Foreign Ministers of several Arab countries (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq) and issued the following joint statement (summarized in this Al Mayadeen article), which seems to suggest that the fate of Syria was already quite clear to them:

From X (formerly Twitter).

Here is what Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated from Doha (source: Al Mayadeen - all emphasis mine):

A new Syrian administration must be established inclusively. There should be no desire for revenge.

We need to work with the Syrian people to make sure there is a smooth transition. A new Syria should not pose a threat to neighbors; it should eliminate threats.

State institutions should be preserved. Opposition groups must be united. We will work for stability and safety in Syria.

Syrian opposition forces are comprised of different groups, but the coordination mechanism will improve in the coming days.

Outlawed PKK militia cannot be considered a legitimate counterpart.

In practice Turkey had already made its intentions clear: chase the Kurds in Syria, thus continuing its illegal occupation of Syrian territory.

Let’s now get beyond the Middle East, to understand the significance of the fall of Bashar al-Assad in the wider geopolitical context.

I see many analysts blaming Iran and especially Russia, even calling them traitors, but maybe forgetting that Russia is fighting an existential war against NATO in Ukraine.

Pepe Escobar suggested in the following post on his Telegram channel that Russia may have made a deal with the Outlaw US Empire:

THE ART OF THE - SYRIAN - DEAL

Old-school former Deep State high-level source. Never failed me:

“There was a deal. Washington gets to do what it wants in the Middle East, Russia gets Ukraine. The new Washington has shown exceptional skill.”

Facts will confirm it - or not.

When did they make the deal, considering that until Friday Russia was still bombing the terrorists in Syria? Did it happen on Saturday, all of a sudden? To be honest, I find it hard to believe, but, considering that diplomats were very active yesterday (Saturday), it is plausible.

Pepe Escobar also quoted the following post from a Russian Telegram channel (Military Informer):

It is reported that we are leaving Syria after all.

It's hard to believe, but if so, we are facing a colossal geopolitical defeat and the loss of the military presence in the Middle East that we have fought so hard for over the past 9 years.

Much of the blame for this lies, of course, with Bashar al-Assad. His shortsightedness, stupidity and stubbornness, which has buried our years of effort and devalued the sacrifices of many soldiers, officers and volunteers. However, there is no doubt that much of the blame lies with those who, over the past few years, have completely ignored the warning bells coming out of Syria that foreshadowed a possible collapse.

In addition to the military presence in Syria as an end in itself, our bases in the country have also played an important role in ensuring Russia's military presence on the African continent as well. It remains to be seen how this issue, which has come next, will be resolved.

All this will cost us dearly not only militarily but also politically.

Military Informer

…adding in his own post:

Not fully confirmed.

But it seems like Russia may be leaving Syria - for good.

Goodbye Lattakia and Tartus.

If that is the case...

TOTAL STRATEGIC DEFEAT.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov - from Al Mayadeen.

Indeed this rumour has not been confirmed yet. Actually, it is worth quoting Lavrov’s statements from earlier today, as reported by Al Mayadeen (all emphasis mine):

Moscow did not participate in talks on the transfer of power.

Russian military bases in Syria are in a mode of increased combat readiness.

[Former President Bashar] al-Assad left the presidential post and Syria after negotiations with Syrian conflict participants, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully.

Thus, Lavrov’s statements seem to counter both Pepe Escobar’s Telegram posts.

Finally, tonight TASS has reported that the Kremlin granted asylum to Syria’s former President Bashar Assad and his family members, who are now in Moscow. The Kremlin was also quoted as saying:

Russia has always spoken in favor of a political settlement of the Syrian crisis. We insist that the UN-mediated talks be resumed.

Russian officials are in touch with representatives of armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the Syrian territory.

…however, if I were Russian President Vladimir Putin or Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov or Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, I would not take these guarantees at face value. Hence, I hope that they really keep their bases in Syria at high alert, as Lavrov said.

In summary, given the large number of factions in Syria, as well as the external actors (Americans, Turks, Iranians and Russians) involved, it is highly likely that chaos will ensue (actually, it is already, as reported by independent journalists, such as Vanessa Beeley) and Syria may end up partitioned in different regions. In fact, Israel is already invading Syrian territory and, at regional level, with Lebanon now isolated from Iran and the other allies of the Axis of Resistance, it may try to give the coup de grace to Hezbollah, whose militias - by the way - have retreated from Syria (as per Middle East Eye). On a wider scale, while this event weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East and East Med, it is still to be seen how the situation will develop - sure, the Outlaw US Empire may have scored a goal and won a battle, but the war (piecemeal World War 3?) has not ended yet!

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